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n. 图形，数字，形状; 人物，外形，体型
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- so the question is areas that have undergone this long term shift from one direction to another try to figure out what's making the change
- 他的问题是 不同的选区在各届大选中 在两党间来回变化 导致这些变化的因素有哪些?
- there are a number of categories
- 有一些主要的原因
- you can put this into generation replacement
- 例如 不同年代出生人群的更替
- different generations vote differently
- 不同年代出生的人有不同的投票倾向
- and as the older generation passes away the new generation arises
- 随着老一代的人离去 新一代的人出现
- that can be significant
- 这种变化会非常明显
- conversion is completely a different matter
- 人的理念转换是另一种原因
- the Reagan Democrats
- 支持里根的民主党人
- blue-collar workers union people
- 指的是工会里的蓝领工人
- who had been very consistent Democratic voters
- 他们过去一直是民主党的支持者
- many of those switched to Republican voting in the 1980s
- 却在20时间80年代转而支持共和党
- that was not so much generation replacement as sort of conversion
- 这显然不是与一代人的更替有关 而是一种倾向的变化
- migration is another factor
- 移民是另一个因素
- when we look at fast growing, also fast shrinking areas
- 当我们观察那些人口迅速扩张 或者快速萎缩的地区
- you've got people leaving
- 人们搬离这些地区
- those who leave or not all going to be in the same situation
- 但无论这些居民离开与否 他们的投票倾向是不变的
- many of the really declining counties in the Great Plains
- 在很多人口下降的县 如在大平原地区
- very elderly populations
- 人口年龄非常大
- as younger people have moved
- 随着年轻人搬离这些地区
- so that changes the voting pattern in those counties
- 这些县的投票倾向也随之发生改变
- many of the fast growing suburban fringe counties
- 很多位于城郊快速发展的县
- you're attracting people
- 在吸引越来越多的居民
- a lot of those counties are getting young couples
- 这些县吸引的主要是一些年轻的夫妻
- and young couples with children tend to be a conservative voting group
- 有孩子的年轻家庭在投票上属于保守的人群
- I believe that among married people McCain won the election
- 我想在结了婚的人群中麦凯恩是占优势的
- if you just took married population
- 如果仅看他们在已婚人群中的支持率
- not by a huge amount but I believe he won that cohort
- 即使不是领先很多 但我想他的支持率是更高的
- if you take people in their 30's with young children
- 在30岁左右有孩子的人群中
- that tends to be even a little bit more Republican voting
- 他们是较为倾向支持共和党的
- and so those people are moving to these fast growing exurban counties
- 因此这些人移居到快速发展的城郊县
- which leads them partly to have this more Republican voting pattern
- 就使得这些县更为地倾向于支持共和党
- but it depends on what state you're in
- 但这也要具体看是在什么州
- some states those suburban fringe counties are very Republican voting
- 有些州的城郊县的确非常支持共和党
- now in the Bay Area we don't see it at all
- 但在旧金山湾区则完全没有这种现象
- we saw it last election San Joaquin County, Stanislaus County
- 过去的选举中圣华金县 斯坦尼斯劳斯县也有这种现象
- we could consider that as sort of the far suburban fringe of San Francisco
- 我们可以将这两个县 勉强看作旧金山的远郊
- Republican voting but Democratic voting this election
- 过去它们支持共和党 但这届大选中都转向了民主党
- but again a lot of political scientists do a lot of statistical analysis
- 很多研究政治的科学家做了很多相关的数据分析
- they do a lot of polling
- 他们做了很多的民意调查
- they run very careful regression analysis to try to tease out what are the causal factors
- 并进行仔细的回归分析 以寻找导致选情变化的原因
- I read that literature
- 我读过相关的文献
- but I don't have enough of a background in statistics to do much more than use it
- 但我在统计学上没有学术背景 所以我也只能看看结果
- and it's just what I prefer to do is look at maps
- 所以我倾向于从地图中寻找答案
- and it's not as rigorous
- 虽然这样没那么严谨
- but there are patterns that you can see by looking at maps
- 但你的确可以从地图中看到一些联系
- that you often don't see with other kinds of statistical techniques
- 这些联系可能是用其他统计工具发现不了的
- I don't know how well I answered your question
- 不知道你是否满意我的回答
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这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。
| 重点单词 | 查看全部解释 | |||
| figure | ['figə] | 联想记忆 | ||
| pattern | ['pætən] | |||
| consistent | [kən'sistənt] | 联想记忆 | ||
| declining | [di'klainiŋ] | |||
| regression | [ri'greʃən] | |||
| rigorous | ['rigərəs] | 联想记忆 | ||
| tend | [tend] | |||
| tease | [ti:z] | 联想记忆 | ||
| population | [.pɔpju'leiʃən] | 联想记忆 | ||
| shift | [ʃift] |
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