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- yes
- 请提问
- the question has to do with the fact that we have private voting it's in secret
- 他的问题是选举过程中 投票人的信息是保密的
- but yes we have all these data telling us the people of certain ages and educational levels vote in a certain way
- 但我们却总能得到关于某年龄层或某学历人群投票情况的数据统计
- most of this comes from exit-polling
- 这些结果多来自"选后民调"
- where pollsters go and poll people as they're leaving the voting booth
- 调查者们在投票人离开投票箱时对他们进行调查
- there are something called the National Election Study, I believe it's called
- 有一个叫做"国家选举研究"的计划 名字我应该没记错
- which is a very substantial statistical study done after every election
- 这是一个很大型的数据调查研究计划 在每次大选后进行
- to try to tease out these demographic patterns
- 致力于跟踪各种人群的投票倾向
- I don't know what this...
- 我对这个了解的不多
- again I'm not a statistician so I don't know what the margin of error would be and how good those are
- 毕竟我不是统计学家 我不清楚怎样的误差幅度才算合理以及结果到底有多可信
- certainly we have problems to deal with
- 他们必须要解决一些影响准确性的问题
- some people are going to answer those questions, others aren't
- 例如有些人愿意回答问题 有些人不愿意
- some may not answer them honestly
- 有些人也许回答的不诚实
- we know from...we know that the actual pre-election polling was very accurate this time
- 我们知道这次大选中选前的民调是非常准确的
- the Bradley effect that people thought might come into play, didn't
- 所谓的布莱德利效应很多人认为很可能会出现 实际上并没有出现
- the effect that people telling pollsters
- 该效应是指受访者告诉民调人员
- that they were going to vote for an African American candidate and then they go into the voting booth they don't do it
- 他们会支持一位黑人候选人 但常常到了真正投票的时候 他们会改变主意
- as evidently happened at one time in the California gubernatorial race
- 这种情况曾出现在布莱德利竞选加州州长的时候
- that didn't happen this time
- 但这次没有发生
- so those polls are pretty good
- 可见民调是非常准确的
- but pollsters in the National Election Studies in this exit-polling
- 但国家选举研究中进行选后调查的民调人员
- they have to take into account that certain people are not gonna answer
- 需要考虑到那些不回答问题的人
- and they're gonna have to try to figure out
- 剔除他们对结果精确性的影响
- algorithms to figure out how those people would've voted
- 通过一些算法来计算 这些人究竟会如何投票
- and I don't think there's any way to go back after the fact and test to see how accurate those were
- 但我想我们没有办法在大选后来检验这些选后调查的精确性
- we can test pre-election polling the election test it
- 大选前的民调我们可以通过选情来检验精确性
- but we can't test the post-election polling
- 而选后的民调则无法对证
- so I really don't know
- 所以我也不确定
- I just have to rely on the works of others and hoped that they're relatively accurate
- 我们只能更多地对比其他调查结果 希望它们统计的结果是相对准确的
- but I can't vouch for it really
- 但我无法保证它的精确性
- if anyone...I know some people here know more about polling than I do
- 如果你们...我知道在座有人比我更了解民调的细节
- if anyone does please help us answer that question
- 有人愿意为我们解答这个问题吗?
- ok I'll move on to some other issues
- 好 那我们继续讨论别的问题
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这一集仔细分析了08年美国总统大选的选情，从教育程度、宗教、人种、郊县的发展趋势等各方面阐述了奥巴马获胜的原因，以及民主党08年支持率上升的具体趋势。亮点：是投给民主党还是共和党呢？这里面的奥妙特别多。跟性别、年龄、受教育程度、富裕程度、人种、宗教都有关系。80多岁老人可能更倾向于民主党，因为奥巴马对经济危机的乐观态度和许以民众的美好未来，让他们想起了罗斯福在面临大萧条时的英雄形象，对此，他们常怀感激。
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