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本课的主讲人是Alex Schultz，主要谈了关于产品的用户增长问题。首先演讲者认为，对于网站，用户留存率是最重要的，而这则取决于产品的好坏，因此先要做好产品。第二，要选对增长目标，制造激动时刻，比如Facebook的激动时刻就是看到你的朋友也在使用它。此外，演讲者还讲到了诸如病毒式营销，搜索引擎优化，电子邮件、短信、推送通知等可以促进增长的方式。
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- And within 90 days of the product launching, we were able to use this technique to be able to figure out what the one year value of an advertiser was,
- 推出该产品90天后我们就能用这个方法来计算一位广告商一年创造的价值
- and we predicted it for the first year to 97% of what the number turned out to be.
- 我们预测出的数值是真实值的97%
- So I think it's very important to look at your attention curve, and this is how we did it.
- 我认为观察用户留存曲线非常重要我们是这么操作的
- If you see here.
- 大家看这里
- This red line is number of users, who have been on your product for a certain number of days.
- 红色线表示使用产品一定时间的用户数
- So, a bunch of people, that should say zero, a bunch of people will have been on your product,
- 有些人或是说没有人有些人一直使用你的产品
- all of your users will have been on it at least one day.
- 所有的用户至少有一天使用了你的产品
- But, if your product's been around a year, or whatever, you will have zero users who've been on it 366 days.
- 如果你的产品推出一年了使用了366天的用户数为零
- Make sense? The curves sensible? Cool.
- 说得通吗？好的
- So what you then do is look for all of your users, who have been on your product one day.
- 然后你这么来看用户数用户至少使用了一天你的产品
- What percentage of them are monthly active.
- 月度活跃用户占多大百分比呢？
- 100% for the first 30 days obviously, because monthly active they all signed up on one day.
- 显然，第一个月是100%因为第一个月，只要是使用过一天的都算活跃的
- But then you look at 31.
- 然后看第31天
- Every single user, on their 31st day after registration, what percentage of them were monthly active, 32nd day, 33rd day, 34th day?
- 注册31天后月度活跃用户占多大百分比呢？看第32天看第33天，看第34天
- And that allows you, with only something like 10,000 customers or whatever, to get a real idea of what this curve is gonna look like for your product.
- 这样你就可以--假设只有10000名用户就能得到你的产品的用户留存曲线
- And you're gonna be able to tell does it asymptote.
- 你就可以判断其走向
- And it'll get noisy out towards the right-hand side.
- 图的右边会有一些波动
- Like I'm not using real data.
- 我用的不是真实数据
- It'll get noisy out towards the right hand side, but you'll be able to get a handle on, does this curve flatten out or does it not.
- 图的右边会有一些波动不过你能看得出来线是不是平的
- If it doesn't flatten out, don't go and do growth tactics, don't go and do virality, don't hire a growth hacker.
- 如果不是平的，就不要谈什么增长策略了不要谈什么病毒式增长，不要雇增长黑客
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