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演讲简介：
牛津大学哲学家和超人类主义学家尼克·波斯特洛姆对人类前景进行审视，并提出以下疑问：我们是否应该重新定义人道来解决人类最根本的问题?
n. 优先权，优先顺序，优先
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- Existential risk -- the second big problem.
- 存在风险——第二个重大问题。
- Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.
- 存在风险是对人类生存，或对整个人类种群的长远潜能的一种威胁。
- Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?
- 为什么我会认为这是一个重大问题？
- Well, let's first look at the probability --
- 让我们来看看可能性——
- and this is very, very difficult to estimate
- 这非常难估量
- but there have been only four studies on this in recent years, which is surprising.
- 但近年来，这个领域只出现了四篇研究文章，这很让人吃惊。
- You would think that it would be of some interest
- 你可能会认为，既然厉害关系如此巨大，
- to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big,
- 那么在这个领域做研究一定是有意义的。
- but it's a very neglected area.
- 然而，这是一个被人们忽视的领域。
- But there have been four studies -- one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this.
- 但是，已经有了四篇研究——其中一篇由约翰·雷斯利所著，为这个问题写了一本书。
- He estimated a probability that we will fail to survive the current century: 50 percent.
- 据他估计，有50%的可能性我们会在这个世纪灭亡。
- Similarly, the Astronomer Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday,
- 类似的，皇家天文学家--我们昨天听过他的演讲--
- also has a 50 percent probability estimate.
- 的估算结果也是50%。
- Another author doesn't give any numerical estimate,
- 另外一个作者并没有给出任何数据估算，
- but says the probability is significant that it will fail.
- 但他指出，人类灭亡的可能性非常高。
- I wrote a long paper on this.
- 我就这个问题写了一篇长篇论文
- I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake in light of the current evidence we have.
- 我在文章里指出，根据现有的证据，任何低于20%的可能性估算都应该是错误的。
- Now, the exact figures here, we should take with a big grain of salt,
- 对于这里的具体数字，我们不应该全盘相信，
- but there seems to be a consensus that the risk is substantial.
- 但人们似乎对此达成共识，风险的确不小。
- Everybody who has looked at this and studied it agrees.
- 每个看过并研究过这方面的人，都会同意。
- Now, if we think about what just reducing
- 那么，如果我们考虑
- the probability of human extinction by just one percentage point, not very much
- 将人类灭绝的可能性几率只减少一个百分点，并不是很多
- so that's equivalent to 60 million lives saved,
- 那就相当于拯救了六千万的生命，
- if we just count the currently living people, the current generation.
- 而这只是计算现存的人类，当代人口。
- Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million.
- 那么六十亿人的百分之一相当于六千万。
- So that's a large number.
- 这是一个很大的数字。
- If we were to take into account future generations
- 如果我们把未来的人口也算进来
- that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up,
- 如果我们把自己毁灭了，未来人口也永不会存在，
- then the figure becomes astronomical.
- 那么这数字就变成天文数字了。
- If we could eventually colonize a chunk of the universe -- the Virgo supercluster --
- 如果我们最终可以开拓宇宙的一角为生存地，比如室女座超星系团
- maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there,
- 可能我们需要一亿年才能到达那儿，
- but if we go extinct we never will.
- 但如果我们灭亡了，我们永远也到不了
- Then, even a one percentage point reduction in the extinction risk
- 那么，即使是减少百分之一的灭绝风险，
- could be equivalent to this astronomical number -- 10 to the power of 32.
- 那将等同于这个极为庞大的数字——10的32次方。
- So if you take into account future generations as much as our own,
- 那么，如果你像关心我们自己一样关心我们的后代，
- every other moral imperative of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant.
- 所有其他基于道义责任的慈善都变得无关紧要。
- The only thing you should focus on would be to reduce existential risk
- 你所应该关注的唯一事情就是减少生存风险
- because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk
- 因为即使只减少极少的一点生存风险，
- would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve.
- 其带来的好处也可以覆盖其它任何你希望获得的利益。
- And even if you just look at the current people,
- 另外，如果你仅仅关注现在的人类，
- and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct,
- 而忽略那些一旦我们灭绝后可能失去的潜能，
- it should still have a high priority.
- 减少存在风险也仍旧值得优先考虑。
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| 重点单词 | 查看全部解释 | |||
| priority | [prai'ɔriti] | |||
| threat | [θret] | |||
| astronomer | [ə'strɔnəmə] | |||
| equivalent | [i'kwivələnt] | 联想记忆 | ||
| achieve | [ə'tʃi:v] | |||
| universe | ['ju:nivə:s] | 联想记忆 | ||
| eventually | [i'ventjuəli] | |||
| ignore | [ig'nɔ:] | 联想记忆 | ||
| consensus | [kən'sensəs] | 联想记忆 | ||
| current | ['kʌrənt] | 联想记忆 |
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