评论
打印
If 2017 was the year of fake news, 2018 is shaping up to be one of fake data. And just as fake news comes in many varieties — real news dubbed by the US president as fake, as well as nonsense gaining huge audiences on social media — so does fake data.
如果2017年是假新闻之年，那么2018年将成为假数据之年。就像假新闻以多种不同形式出现一样——既有被美国总统称为假新闻的真新闻，也有在社交媒体上吸引众多观众的无稽之谈——假数据也是如此。
Today, the Financial Times reveals the fake gross domestic product data routinely released from many northern Chinese regions. There, solid alternative evidence suggests the authorities have “smoothed” the economic growth figures. They artificially boosted growth figures between 2012 and 2016, masking a real downturn, and last year covered up a genuine recovery.
近日，英国《金融时报》披露了中国北方很多地区例行公布的关于国内生产总值(GDP)的虚假数据。在那些地区，可靠的替代证据表明，地方政府“抹平”了经济增长数字。他们人为地推高了2012年至2016年期间的增长数字，掩盖了真实的低迷期，去年又掩盖了真正的复苏。
Chinese growth figures have long been known to be artificially smooth, but now the economy is easily the world’s largest on purchasing power exchange rates, the statistical massages have wider consequences.
长期以来，中国增长数据的人为平稳广为人知，但以购买力平价汇率计算，如今中国毫无疑问是世界第一大经济体，因此这些统计数据传达的信息带来了更广泛的影响。
Everyone was hugely cheered that global greenhouse gas emissions were flat between 2014 and 2016, even though recorded global growth was OK. The trouble is that this wasn’t the improvement in global economic efficiency everyone celebrated, but just a slowdown in northern China. As this part of the world recovered its economic mojo in 2017, carbon dioxide levels began to rise again.
2014年至2016年期间，虽然全球增长数据不错，但全球温室气体排放量持平，所有人都为此欢欣鼓舞。问题是，其原因并非是所有人庆祝的全球经济效率提升，而仅仅是中国北方的经济增长放缓。随着这部分地区在2017年恢复了经济增长势头，二氧化碳排放量开始再次上升。
In other words, we’ve just had a false dawn on the climate change front.
换句话说，我们看到的只是气候变化方面的虚假黎明。
Closer to home, fake official data are just as prevalent. The UK’s Office for National Statistics on Tuesday reported that British inflation, measured by its longstanding retail prices index, rose to 4.1 per cent in December. This number is nonsense and the ONS knows it. It tells people the RPI “does not meet the required standard” to be given a quality stamp, yet it has refused since 2012 to take steps to improve the measure and bring it closer to the lower headline measure of 3 per cent.
至于英国，官方虚构数据同样盛行。英国国家统计局(Office For National Statistics)周二公布，以由来已久的零售价格指数(RPI)衡量，去年12月英国通胀率上升至4.1%。该数字纯属胡扯，英国国家统计局对此心知肚明。该机构告诉人们RPI“没有达到规定标准”，不能作为合格的通胀指标，但自2012年以来该机构一直拒绝采取措施来改善该指标并使之贴近3%的整体通胀率。
The consequences are more parochial than those of Chinese data distortion. British law requires the ONS to produce the RPI and, given that it refuses to improve the measure, its fiddling affects hundreds of billions of pounds of contracts which continue to be linked to the RPI.
其造成的影响范围比中国数据失真要小。英国法律要求英国国家统计局计算RPI数据，鉴于该部门拒绝改善算法，这种数据造假行为影响了继续与RPI挂钩的总值达数千亿英镑的合同。
British statisticians’ unwillingness to correct known errors in the clothing price component of the RPI redistributes many billions every year from students, recent graduates, taxpayers and rail commuters to index-linked UK government bondholders, wealthy pensioners with RPI-linked pensions and rail companies.
英国统计学家不愿纠正RPI服装价格部分的已知错误，每年把巨额资金从学生、新毕业生、纳税人和铁路通勤者重新分配给了与该指数挂钩的英国政府债券持有人、领着与RPI挂钩的退休金的富裕退休金领取人、以及铁路公司。
Let’s now travel to Greece. There, Andreas Georgiou, the head of its statistical agency between 2010 and 2015, faces prosecutions for his part in uncovering fake Greek public finance data for 2009 and setting the record straight. This week 40 groups, led by the American Statistical Association, and 651 individuals signed a statement in support of Mr Georgiou.
现在让我们去希腊。在2010年至2015年期间担任希腊统计局(Elstat)局长的安德烈亚斯?耶奥尔耶欧(Andreas Georgiou)，因揭露希腊2009年公共财政虚假数据并更正数据而面临指控。本周，以美国统计协会(American Statistical Association)为首的40个组织和651名个人签署声明，支持耶奥尔耶欧。
Producing fake data, it appears, is condoned at official levels. Publishing real data lands you up in court. Much more of this and the public will be right to lose trust in official statistics.
看起来，数据造假会在官方层面得到宽容。公布真实数据会把你送上法院的被告席。如果还有更多这类情况发生，公众不再信任官方统计数据将是正确的。
