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Foreign holdings of Chinese bonds have jumped 50 per cent in the past two years as overseas investors have seized on Beijing’s push to open up its estimated Rmb73tn ($11tn) fixed-income market.
过去两年，外国对中国债券的持有量增长了50%，海外投资者抓住了北京方面开放规模约为73万亿元人民币（合11万亿美元）的固定收益市场的机会。
But, if some commentators are to be believed, we have not seen anything yet.
但是，如果一些评论员的话可信的话，好戏还在后头。
Despite the buying spree, foreigners still only held Rmb921bn of Chinese bonds in October, according to data from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Citi, as the chart below shows.
根据中国社会科学院和花旗(Citi)的数据，尽管出现购买狂潮，10月份外国人的中国债券持有量仍只有9210亿元人民币，如下图所示。
At just 1.86 per cent of the market, this is a smaller share (of an admittedly fast-growing market) than in early 2015.
市场份额仅为1.86%，跟2015年初相比（在一个无疑是高速增长的市场上）占比更低。
But inclusion in the world’s major bond indices, which some believe is more a question of “when” than “if”, could catalyse far greater flows.
但是，中国债券被纳入全球主要债券指数——有些人认为这只是“何时”而非“能否”的问题——可能刺激更大的资金流入。
Analysts at Citi estimate that China’s inclusion in the JPMorgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets, Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate and London Stock Exchange Group’s World Government Bond Index would deliver additional inflows of $779bn by 2025.
花旗分析师估计，如果中国被纳入摩根大通(JPMorgan)新兴市场政府债券指数(GBI-EM)、彭博巴克莱全球综合指数(Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate)和伦敦证券交易所集团(London Stock Exchange Group)的全球政府债券指数(WGBI)，到2025年将有7790亿美元的额外资金流入。
About $250bn of this would come merely from passive investors, whose behaviour is easiest to predict, as shown in the table below.
其中约2500亿美元来自被动投资者，其行为最容易预测，如下表所示。
Rob Drijkoningen, head of emerging market debt at asset manager Neuberger Berman, sees potential for at least $250bn-$300bn to flood into China if and when it is included in the indices, noting that “some foreign investors are looking at larger allocations than the benchmarks would provide”.
资产管理公司Neuberger Berman新兴市场债务负责人罗布?德里科宁根(Rob Drijkoningen)认为，如果中国被纳入上述指数，至少有2500亿至3000亿美元的资金可能会涌入中国。他指出，“一些外国投资者正在研究高于指数权重的配置”。
“We are very excited with the China opportunity. It’s a policy priority [for Beijing] to open up the capital markets,” adds Mr Drijkoningen, who says that Neuberger Berman is currently hiring credit analysts to beef up its fixed-income team in Shanghai in readiness for a fund launch next year.
“我们对中国的机会感到非常兴奋。（对于北京方面来说），开放资本市场是政策优先，”德里科宁根补充道。他说，Neuberger Berman目前正在招聘信用分析师来充实其上海固定收益团队，筹备明年推出一个基金。
China’s gradualist approach to opening up its bond market mirrors that for its mainland equities, which are due to be incorporated into the all-powerful MSCI Emerging Markets index for the first time in May, albeit at a relatively low initial weight.
中国逐步开放债券市场的做法，跟对待A股的做法类似。明年6月，中国A股将首次被纳入强大的MSCI新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets index)，尽管初始权重相对较低。
Some foreign banks were granted access to the onshore interbank bond market in 2010. In February 2016, Beijing took a step further when it allowed mid- and long-term foreign institutional investors recognised by the People’s Bank of China to trade without prior approval or quota restrictions.
有些外资银行于2010年获准进入境内银行间债券市场。2016年2月，北京方面进一步允许中国央行(PBoC)认可的中长期境外机构投资者进入该市场交易，不必经过事先批准，也不受配额限制。
In July of this year, it launched a Shanghai-Hong Kong bond connect programme, allowing foreign fund managers to trade in the interbank bond market without having to set up accounts onshore.
今年7月，中国启动了连通内地与香港债市的“债券通”，允许外资基金管理公司无需在境内设立账户，就能在银行间债券市场进行交易。
Mr Drijkoningen says that 200 funds are already using bond connect, a figure he expects to grow “exponentially”, while 282 foreign “commercial entities” and 63 sovereign wealth funds and central banks are active in the interbank market.
德里科宁根表示，已有200家基金在使用债券通——他预计这个数字将“呈现指数级增长”——而282个外国“商业实体”以及63家主权财富基金和央行在中国银行间市场上表现活跃。
To date, however, these initiatives have not been met with promises of index inclusion by the guardians of the world’s major bond indices.
但是，迄今为止，这些举措还没有得到世界主要债券指数提供商对于把中国债市纳入其指数的承诺。
Bloomberg and Citi, which formerly ran the World Government Bond Index now operated by the LSE, opted instead for the “cheeky” approach, in the words of Mr Drijkoningen, of creating additional benchmarks that do include China.
但彭博和花旗选择创建包括中国在内的新指数，用德里科宁根的话来说这种做法有点“无耻”。花旗曾经管理如今由伦敦证券交易所运营的全球政府债券指数。
Given the inertia of the fund management industry, however, “very few [investors] will normally choose the [new] benchmark,” says Mr Drijkoningen.
然而，鉴于基金管理行业的惯性，“正常情况下很少（投资者）会选择新指数”，德里科宁根说。
Bloomberg says that it is not able to say how much money is tracking its new Global Aggregate + China and EM Local Currency Government + China indices.
彭博表示，目前还无法判断追踪其新的全球综合+中国指数(Global Aggregate + China)和新兴市场本地货币政府债券+中国指数(EM Local Currency Government + China)的资金有多少。
The LSE Group says that because its WGBI-Extended index, which includes China, is a new index “we don’t have much public data for AUM [assets under management] inflows at this stage”.
伦敦证券交易所集团表示，由于其包括中国在内的全球政府债券指数-扩展市场(WGBI-Extended)指数是一个新指数，“现阶段我们没有太多有关管理资产规模的公开数据”。
JPMorgan does include China in its CEMBI Broad Diversified Index, which is tracked by $90bn of assets and covers dollar-denominated corporate debt, but only because these bonds are issued under non-domestic law, are traded outside China and are settled by international clearing systems.
摩根大通将中国债券纳入了其新兴市场企业债券多元分散指数(CEMBI Broad Diversified Index)，该指数受到900亿美元的资产追踪，涵盖以美元计价的企业债券，但是因为这些债券是根据非国内法发行，因此在中国境外进行交易并通过国际清算系统完成结算。
However, Chinese bonds are still excluded from JPMorgan’s more widely followed GBI-EM Global Diversified index, although they are on “Index Watch” to be reassessed for eligibility in 2018.
然而，中国债券仍被排除在摩根大通受到更广泛追踪的全球新兴市场多元化债券指数(GBI-EM Global Diversified)之外，不过被列入了指数观察(Index Watch)名单，其纳入资格将于2018年接受重新评估。
JPM says that while bond connect was a “positive step in providing offshore investors access to the local market?.?.?.?the platform needs to establish a track record sufficient for dedicated managers to replicate potential index exposure” before China could be included in the GBI-EM.
摩根大通表示，虽然债券通“是向海外投资者提供本地市场准入的积极步骤……但该平台需要建立足够好的业绩记录，以便专职管理机构可以复制潜在的指数投资”，然后中国才可能被纳入新兴市场政府债券指数。
Investors also want the Chinese authorities “to explore ways to make the market scalable for foreign investors”, the bank adds.
摩根大通补充道，投资者还希望中国当局“探索如何使市场规模对外国投资者而言变得可扩展”。
The LSE Group, which plans to add China to its EM Government Bond and Asian Government Bond indices in February, says it does not have “a definite timetable” to review the country’s inclusion in its flagship WGBI, but adds that the subject “is kept under review in consultation with customers” and that “there will probably be another consultation in 2018”.
伦敦证交所计划于明年2月把中国纳入其新兴市场政府债券指数(EM Government Bond)和亚洲政府债券指数(Asian Government Bond)。它表示，目前没有评估何时把中国纳入其旗舰指数全球政府债券指数的“明确时间表”，但补充称该问题“正在征求客户意见”而且“可能会在2018年再次征求意见”。
Mr Drijkoningen is hopeful that China will break into one of the flagship indices by late 2018 or mid 2019, albeit at a low weighting which is then gradually raised over the course of six to 12 months.
德里科宁根相信中国有望在2018年末或2019年年中成功打入旗舰指数之一，尽管刚开始权重较低，但会在之后6-12个月内逐渐提升。
“Having seen various reforms in China we are at the stage where the hard criteria are more or less met,” he argues.
他认为，“在看到了中国多项改革后，我们目前正处于中国多多少少满足了硬指标的阶段。”
“If you are sticking strictly to the rule book you can make a case that inclusion is imminent, but index operators rely a lot on the feedback they get from investors. They want to see that the infrastructure that is in place is perfectly usable and is being used.”
“如果你严格遵循规则，你可以提出充分的理由来证明这些指数即将纳入中国，但是指数运营商非常依赖他们从投资者那里获得的反馈。他们希望已经到位的基础设施完全可以使用而且正在使用之中。”
Despite this caveat, Mr Drijkoningen says that when one of the big index providers decides that China has made the grade, “it will be hard” for the others to resist, meaning that foreign inflows could “snowball”.
尽管如此，但德里科宁根表示当大的指数提供商之一认定中国已经达到标准时，其他机构“将很难”抵抗，这意味着外资会像“滚雪球”一样流入中国市场。
The eventual inclusion of China would create losers as well as winners, however, given that the addition of such a heavyweight market would reduce the weighting of other countries, meaning that they could see foreign investors cut their exposure as they readjust their books.
中国最终被纳入各大指数，既会产生赢家也会有输家，然而，鉴于纳入如此重量级市场会降低其他国家的权重，这意味着这些国家可能看到外国投资者在调整投资配置时减持其债券。
China has a weighting of 5.3 per cent in Bloomberg’s Global Aggregate + China Index, which includes 155 Chinese Treasury bonds and 232 bonds issued by the country’s state-owned “policy” banks, with a combined market value of $2.8tn.
中国在彭博全球综合+中国指数中的权重为5.3%。该指数覆盖155支中国国债和232支由中国国有政策性银行发行的债券，总市值达到2.8万亿美元。
Unsurprisingly, the Middle Kingdom’s weight in Bloomberg’s EM Local Currency Government + China Index is far higher still, at 37.8 per cent, elbowing smaller countries aside.
毫不意外的是，中国在彭博新兴市场本地货币政府债券+中国指数中的权重高得多，达到37.8%，把较小国家挤到了一边。
And while China accounts for 8.1 per cent of JPMorgan’s CEMBI Broad Diversified Index, it is almost certain to constitute 10 per cent of the JPM GBI-EM (the maximum allowable), if and when it gains entry.
同时，尽管中国在摩根大通新兴市场企业债券多元分散指数中的权重为8.1%，但如果中国被纳入其新兴市场政府债券指数，中国的权重几乎必然会达到10%（允许的最大值）。
Brazil and Mexico, the two countries already at the 10 per cent cap, are likely to retain their weighting, meaning that the pain will be primarily felt by the countries just below this, such as Indonesia (9.6 per cent), Poland (9 per cent) and Thailand (8.1 per cent).
巴西和墨西哥已经达到了10%的上限，它们可能维持其权重，这意味着主要感受到痛苦的将是那些权重低于这一水平的国家，比如印度尼西亚(9.6%)、波兰(9%)和泰国(8.1%)。
“Upon full inclusion [China] would substantially reduce the weight of other regions and countries in the benchmark,” says JPMorgan.
摩根大通表示：“完全纳入（中国）将大大降低该指数中其他地区和国家的权重。”
