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New Chinese rules mandating a boost in electric vehicle production are raising fears of a glut of battery-powered cars that carmakers will be hard pressed to sell.
强制提高电动车产量的中国新规，正使人们担心电动汽车供应过剩，汽车制造商难以出售。
Regulations adopted in September require EVs to account for up to 8 per cent of sales by 2020. But this far exceeds current demand in China, where electric vehicles accounted for just over 1 per cent of sales last year.
9月出台的新规定意味着，到2020年电动车需要占总销量高达8%。但这远远超过了目前中国的需求，去年电动车占中国汽车市场总销量的1%多一点。
Now industry experts are voicing concerns that this will hit profits — and that some carmakers may not survive.
现在业内专家表示担心，这将打击利润，某些汽车制造商甚至可能无法生存。
“There will be pain in a coming war of attrition,” said Michael Dunne, an analyst based in Hong Kong who believes the mountain of government-mandated EVs could spark a shakeout in the industry as companies lose money.
“即将到来的消耗战将带来痛苦，”常驻香港的分析师邓凯(Michael Dunne)表示。他认为，随着企业陷入亏损，政府强制的电动车供应过剩可能引发一场业内洗牌。
The wealthier EV producers and those with access to state funds would remain, he said, “while the less well-endowed fall away”.
他说，财力比较雄厚以及能够获得国家资金的电动车生产企业将会留下来，“而实力不那么强的企业会出局”。
Bernstein, the brokerage, said in a report last week that the new rules adopted in September would push car brands in China — including global groups such as VW and GM — to produce more than 2m EVs by 2020, compared with 336,000 passenger EVs sold in 2016.
经纪公司伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)上周在一份报告中表示，9月出台的新规将推动在中国经营的汽车品牌——包括大众(VW)和通用汽车(GM)等全球集团——到2020年生产超过200万辆电动车，而2016年的电动乘用车销量仅为33.6万辆。
Cool demand for battery-powered cars in China and government plans to end subsidies for battery cars could see EV makers end up losing an average of Rmb30,000 ($4,500) per car, they estimated. That totals $10bn in lost earnings in 2020 alone, and “a double-digit percentage profit impact” for most manufacturers, Bernstein said.
他们估计，中国市场对电池驱动汽车需求不振，而政府计划结束对电动车的补贴，对生产企业而言可能意味着每辆电动车平均亏损3万元人民币（合4500美元）。伯恩斯坦表示，仅在2020年，这就相当于总共损失100亿美元利润，对多数制造商盈利的影响幅度达到“两位数百分比”。
“Given most consumers remain unenthused by EV adoption, we worry that the [original equipment manufacturers] may need to discount EVs down to gasoline car prices to drive volumes,” it added.
“鉴于多数消费者对选用电动车仍然不积极，我们担心OEM（原始设备制造商）可能需要对电动车打折，使其降至汽油动力汽车的价位，以推动销量，”伯恩斯坦补充说。
Beijing targets have long created global overcapacity in sectors from steel to solar panels, hitting profits.
从钢铁到太阳能电池板，北京方面制定的目标往往造成全球产能过剩，影响利润。
Matt Tsien, president of GM China, says he foresees “a dramatic ramp-up in terms of required volumes after the mandate comes into place”.
通用汽车中国公司总裁钱惠康(Matt Tsien)表示，他预计，“在新规实施后，产量要求将戏剧性提高”。
But he stopped short of predicting a glut. “I think that an issue that all OEMs are going to be working on is how quickly can we drive scale and the continued cost of electrification down as the volumes ramp up,” he said.
但他不愿预测电动车过剩。“我认为所有OEM厂商将要努力应对的问题是，随着产量增长，我们能够多快扩大规模，多快继续压低电气化的成本，”他表示。
According to regulations published in September designed to promote EV production, carmakers will have to manufacture a certain number of EVs starting in 2019 to offset combustion engine cars they produce, or else buy credits. The rules won’t be enforced until 2020.
根据9月发布的旨在促进电动车生产的法规，从2019年起，在华经营的汽车制造商将不得不制造一定数量的电动车，或者向其他企业购买积分，以抵消自己生产的内燃发动机汽车。这些规定从2018年起正式执行。
The new rules impose two sets of targets on the manufacturers, one which is a set of quotas for EV sales volumes and one for fuel economy compliance.
新规定对制造商实行两套指标，一套是电动车销量配额，另一套是燃油经济性合规。
The former implies that 3-4 per cent of sales will need to be EVs by 2020. To also achieve fuel economy compliance, however, 7-8 per cent of their sales will need to be EVs by the same date, according to Bernstein.
前者意味着，到2020年，电动车销量占比将需要达到3%至4%。然而，据伯恩斯坦介绍，要同时满足燃油经济性合规要求，届时电动车销量占比将需要达到7%至8%。
That’s up from more than 1 per cent last year.
相比之下去年的电动车销量占比只有1%多一点。
Bernstein estimates that, as a result of compliance, 2.4-2.7m new passenger EVs will be produced in China in 2020, implying an annual sales growth rate of 64-68 per cent.
伯恩斯坦估计，合规要求的结果是，2020年中国将生产240万至270万辆新的电动乘用车，这意味着年销量增速要达到64%至68%。
That growth rate is higher even than the 62 per cent recorded in the 2015-16 period, when EV sales were starting from a lower base and pushed by massive state incentives.
这比2015-16年期间62%的增速（那时电动车销量从较低基数开始增长，且受到国家激励措施的推动）还要高。
