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Donald Trump, most of whose economic policy initiatives have achieved little to nothing, has made one of the most important decisions since his election. The US president has nominated Jay Powell as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.
以往大多数经济举措都收效甚微的唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)，做出了自己当选以来最重要的决策之一。这位美国总统已提名杰伊?鲍威尔(Jay Powell)为新一任美联储(Federal Reserve)主席。
A preferable outcome, as the Financial Times has argued, would have been the reappointment of Janet Yellen, who has been Fed chair since 2014 after joining the board of governors in 2010.
英国《金融时报》已指出，更好的结果本应是珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)继续连任，耶伦2010年进入美联储理事会，自2014年起出任美联储主席。
Rightly, Ms Yellen has broadly continued the approach of her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, of being prepared to use unorthodox means to stimulate the economy. The Fed’s policy of withdrawing that stimulus is more debatable, but at least the move has been gradual thus far. Since he seems to represent continuity of approach, Mr Powell was the second-best choice of the candidates interviewed by Mr Trump.
耶伦正确地在大体上延续了其前任本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的政策，愿意用非常规手段刺激经济。美联储退出刺激措施的政策更具争议性，但至少到目前为止此举是循序渐进的。鲍威尔似乎代表了政策的延续，因此是特朗普面见的候选人中的第二佳人选。
He does come with two disadvantages. He has argued for financial deregulation, rolling back some of the post-global crisis clampdown on risky behaviour. Together with the views of Randal Quarles, the vice-chairman for bank supervision, the Fed seems likely to shift towards arguing for more lax rules for financial institutions. However, Mr Powell’s views on the subject are relatively nuanced and moderate. He has extensive experience in financial markets and is regarded as a pragmatist rather than an ideological deregulator.
鲍威尔的确有两个劣势。他一直主张放松金融管制，撤销全球金融危机后对冒险行为的一些打压。加上美联储负责金融监管的副主席兰德尔?夸尔斯(Randal Quarles)也提倡为银行松绑，美联储似乎可能转向支持为金融机构制定更宽松的规则。然而，在这个问题上，鲍威尔的看法相对微妙而温和。他在金融市场上经验丰富，并被认为是个务实派，而不是一位空想的放松监管支持者。
Second, the new chairman is a lawyer rather than an economist, and as such his judgments on economics will always be subject to question. The previous non-economist in the job was G William Miller, appointed by the president Jimmy Carter in 1978. Mr Miller, who lasted only just over a year, was a disaster, refusing to tighten monetary policy in the face of high inflation.
其次，这位美联储新主席是一名律师而不是一位经济学家，因此他对经济状况的判断总会受到质疑。上一位非经济学家出身的美联储主席是威廉?米勒(G.William Miller)，他在1978年被当时的美国总统吉米?卡特(Jimmy Carter)任命。米勒仅当了一年多美联储主席，那是一场灾难，面对高通胀他拒绝收紧货币政策。
Mr Powell is unlikely to be another Mr Miller. For one, he has solidly supported the Fed’s strategy of recent years: it would be a surprise if he suddenly took a radically hawkish turn. Second, the Fed’s open market committee has become a much more open place under Ms Yellen and Mr Bernanke, with more willingness to tolerate dissent than the Fed of Mr Bernanke’s predecessor, Alan Greenspan.
鲍威尔不太可能成为另一个米勒。第一，近年来他坚决支持美联储的策略：倘若他彻底转变为货币政策鹰派，那将是个意外。第二，在耶伦与伯南克的领导下，美联储的公开市场委员会已变得更加开放，比起伯南克的前任艾伦?格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在位时，对异议的包容度也更高。
Accordingly, the potential for Mr Powell to ram through his own views is limited. Across Washington, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, has overcome the drawback of being a lawyer. She has compensated for her own lack of expertise by consulting widely with the fund’s economists.
因此，鲍威尔强行推行自己想法的可能性不大。纵观华盛顿，国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)已经克服了作为一名律师的短板。通过广泛咨询基金内部的经济学家，她弥补了自身专业知识的匮乏。
However, with a lawyer in the chair, the composition of the rest of the Fed board becomes unusually important. If Mr Trump surrounds Mr Powell with governors of a hawkish disposition, it may be harder for him to argue for easy monetary policy.
然而，当一位律师担任主席时，美联储理事会其他成员的构成就变得异常重要。假如特朗普让鲍威尔身边环绕鹰派立场的理事，那鲍威尔可能更难推行宽松的货币政策。
In this context, it would be wise for Ms Yellen to continue as a governor even when her term as chair comes to an end in February next year. She has the right to retain her seat on the board until 2024. This would be unusual, but not unprecedented, and these are times when the need for wise counsel will be particularly important. If the US economy encounters another crisis and the need for extraordinary measures such as a fresh quantitative easing programme recurs, her experience and analysis would be highly valuable.
在这种形势下，耶伦在明年2月结束主席任期后继续担任美联储理事将是明智之举。她有权将自己在美联储理事会的席位保留至2024年。这并不常见，但也并非史无前例，而且当前的局面尤为需要明智的建议。如果美国经济遭遇另一场危机，同时又需要采取非常措施，如新一轮量化宽松计划，耶伦的经验和分析将非常有价值。
Mr Trump has made a reasonable, if not optimal, choice. The challenge now is for Mr Powell to hold the Fed’s existing, mainly sensible, line, that it should depart only gradually from the extraordinary monetary measures that have done so much to support the US economy for the past 10 years.
特朗普做出了一个合理的选择，即使这不是最佳之选。鲍威尔现在面临的挑战是，维持美联储现有的、基本明智的路线，即只能逐步退出过去十年为支撑美国经济做出了巨大贡献的非常货币措施。
