Golden State wins 70 games
金州赢得70场比赛
I know all the reasons this shouldn't happen: malaise; exhaustion from their preseason China trip; Steve Kerr squeezing in several DNP-Rests for his stars; the Western Conference gauntlet; the proverbial bull's-eye on the back.
我知道所有下面的这些原因可能都会导致这不会发生:伤病,中国赛的路途疲惫;史蒂夫科尔为明星球员挤压出轮休场次;西部鏖战;联盟的众矢之的
But this team is just so damned good. It went 67-15 and came within a Steph Curry mustache whisker of finishing first in both points scored and allowed per possession — and it should somehow be better. It even enjoys continuity after working out the kinks with Kevin Durant.
但是这支球队如此的出色。在留有胡子的库里的带领下拿下67胜15负的战绩,并且每回合得分和限制对手得分都处在第一位——而且他们本应该能做的更好。同时在杜兰特的发挥下他们将能保持这一势头。
The Warriors are deeper now — deep enough to overcome Kerr sitting one star in almost any game, save for maybe a few road back-to-backs. Nick Young is a decent defender when he tries, and he can't even comprehend yet how easy his life is about to be on offense. Omri Casspi, all sneaky cuts and Curry-range bombs, is built to play for this team.
现在的勇士阵容变得更加深厚,深厚到足以让科尔几乎每场比赛都能轮休一名明星球员,为客场的背靠背节省体力。如果尽力的话,尼克杨将会是一个不错的防守者,而且他还没有意识到他在进攻端是多么的出色。卡斯比的空切和库里式的三分远程炸弹和这只球队完美契合。
Three-time NBA Finalists are typically primed for major age-related regression. Not this bunch. Kerr can issue all the take-it-easy edicts he likes; his players are too competitive to help themselves. It's hard to find any game in which they would reasonably be considered an underdog.
通常三次总决赛之旅后,就会由于年龄问题而衰退,但这却不适用于勇士这帮球员。科尔可以随心所欲的施展他的战术。他的球员如此有竞争力以至于很难在每场比赛中被认为处于劣势。
Houston finishes second in the West
休斯敦是西部第二的球队
The safe bet is the Spurs. They just win, and they are bringing back almost the same team once Tony Parker returns.
安全点的赌注是马刺队。因为他们刚刚赢了,而且一旦托尼帕克回归,他们就保持了和去年一样的阵容。
The sexy bet is Oklahoma City. Before acquiring Carmelo Anthony, the Thunder's path to 60 wins was clear: Paul George would slither around as the slightly less wealthy man's Kevin Durant, and their defense would smother people. They had an identity — a mix of new Thunder and old Thunder.
感性点的赌注是俄克拉荷马雷霆队。在得到卡梅伦安东尼之前,他们的60胜之路就已清晰:保罗乔治仅仅比凯文杜兰特稍加逊色,但是在防守端他可以让任何人窒息。他们有一个身份——新老雷霆的混合体。
Houston will have its own superstar integration hiccups, but adding one new guy — even a slow-it-down yapper like Paul — should be smoother than adding two. Houston is deep across every position; Clint Capela and Nene Hilario form a dynamite center rotation, and the Rockets are loaded with rangy, corner-shooting wings. Ryan Anderson is roadkill in the wrong playoff matchup, but he's a dangerous regular-season weapon.
休斯敦虽然在他巨星的融合度上有点小问题,但是增加了一名新成员——甚至是速度已经变慢的保罗——应该比增加两名能使球队变得更加流畅。休斯敦在每个位置上都有阵容的深度。卡佩拉和内内可以组成一个强力的中锋轮换,同时也配备了许多身长、能投底角三分的侧翼球员。虽然莱恩安德森是一名在季后赛中的客场杀手,但在常规赛中依然是一个可怕的武器。
All these teams should be roaring in April. The bet here is Houston wins the most before then.
所有这些球队都会在四月份迎来上升期,但我把赌注压在休斯敦能比上述两队赢得更多的比赛上面。
Charlotte sets the all-time defensive rebounding rate record
夏洛特将会创造防守篮板率的记录
This is just fun trivia. Only seven teams have rebounded at least 79 percent of opponent misses. All played within the past three seasons, including the past three Charlotte teams — the product of Clifford's abdication of fast-breaking in favor of having all five guys protect the glass. (Last season's Pistons snared 81.2 percent of opponent misses, the only team ever to crack the 80 percent barrier.)
这是一件趣事。历史上只有七支球队在对方投丢的情况下拿到至少79%的防守篮板。所有这些情况都出现在近三年,并且都包括过去三年的夏洛特黄蜂。这都是克利福德放弃快攻机会,五名球员都致力于保护篮筐的结果。(上赛季的活塞抓下了81.2%的防守篮板,也是唯一一只打破80%防守篮板率的球队)
Howard can still munch boards above the rim. Charlotte is already close to the upper bound of defensive rebounding. Howard will nudge them toward that theoretical limit — at least until Zeller leapfrogs him.
霍华德依然是一名 篮板怪物。夏洛特已经接近防守篮板的上限。在泽勒取代他之前,霍华德将会推动他们达到这个理论上的极限。
The Sixers join the 16 percent club
76人加入16%俱乐部
Only 77 teams have coughed the ball up on at least 16 percent of their possessions; only one of them played in the past decade. Philly approached the 15 percent mark last season, and the 76ers project as straight blunderous after handing the rock to one rookie (Markelle Fultz), one rampaging fake rookie (Ben Simmons) and a delightful superstar big man coming off one of the highest-turnover half seasons in league history.
历史上在每百回合的比赛中,只有77支球队的失误率达到16%,其中只有一次出现在最近的十年中。上赛季费城在这一数据上接近15%,当76人中有一个新秀(富尔茨),一个暴走的假新秀(本西蒙斯)和一个历史上半个赛季失误最多的明星大个时或许会犯许多错误。
LeBron James leaves Cleveland again
勒布朗詹姆斯再次离开克里夫兰
There is too much smoke, even with Russell Westbrook's mega-extension snuffing one potential superstar cabal in Los Angeles. LeBron could still go there with Paul George, though the Lakers need some high-wire cap gymnastics to open up the requisite $65 million in room. And can LeBron really chase the Warriors with George, Lonzo Ball and whatever flotsam is left after L.A. sheds money?
即使维斯特布鲁克斯的超级续约合同稍稍挫败了洛杉矶的吸引超级巨星的阴谋,但依然有许多不确定性。勒布朗依然可以和保罗乔治联手入主洛杉矶,前提是洛杉矶要有6500万的薪资空间。但是在球队耗资巨额之后在勒布朗、乔治、郎佐鲍尔再加几个不入流的球员带领下真的能和勇士相提并论么?
LeBron still values winning above all else. He wants another title. He needs one to challenge Michael Jordan's GOAT status. The path there with those theoretical Lakers is uncertain.
勒布朗现在仍然视胜利高于一切。他还想再拿一个冠军,去挑战乔丹历史最佳的地位。而去湖人之后,这条路将会变得更加不确定。
Put it this way: If you forced me to name which team LeBron is on next season, I'd take the Cavs by a hair over the Lakers. But if you give me Cleveland versus the field, I'm taking the field. LeBron is dominant enough to go anywhere he wants. He could tell almost literally any team, "I'm coming as long you also sign Players X and Y," and that team would make it happen.
要是这样的话,如果你强逼我说出一个勒布朗将会在哪个球队的名字,我会说骑士比湖人更有可能。但是如果你认为勒布朗别无他选的话,那你就错了。勒布朗的统治力足以让他去任何他想去的地方。他几乎可以告诉任何球队“如果你把球员X和球员Y签来的话,我就去你们球队”,那么这只球队就会让他成真。
The eight playoff teams in the Eastern Conference are... Cleveland, Boston, Toronto, Washington, Milwaukee, Charlotte, Miami and Philadelphia.
东部八强的球队是:克里夫兰、波士顿、多伦多、华盛顿、密尔沃基、夏洛特、迈阿密和费城
The eight playoff teams in the Western Conference are... Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Houston, Denver, Minnesota, Portland, Clippers.
西部八强的球队是:金州、圣安东尼奥、俄克拉荷马、丹佛、明尼苏达、波特兰和快船。
At least one coach is fired by Christmas
至少有一个教练在圣诞节前会被裁
I'm not going to name names, because that's unpleasant. Our Era of Coaching Good Feelings is about to end. There are a bunch of volatile middle-of-the-road teams facing high expectations, and at least a couple will have fallen short by the time the calendar flips to 2018.
我不会说出名字,这会让人不高兴。但是执教靠培养好感情的时代已经结束。有许多正在建设中的球队被赋予很高的期待,而它们中的至少有几个到2018年时会令人失望。
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