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Two events — one that has just happened and one that may be imminent — are swelling the ranks of investors willing to bet that a great environmental rehabilitation in smog-choked China will become a stock market megatrend.
两起事件——其中一起刚刚发生，另一起可能很快就会发生——正在推动投资者作出这样一个押注：深受雾霾困扰的中国为整治环境而付出的巨大努力，将成为股市的一个大趋势。
First came last week’s decision by Donald Trump to pull the US out of the Paris climate accord, ceding leadership over the global green agenda to China and Europe. Then there is the prospect of MSCI, the index provider, deciding this month to include some Chinese A shares into one of its benchmarks for the first time.
前一起事件是唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)上周决定把美国撤出巴黎气候协定，从而把全球绿色议程的领导权拱手让给中国和欧洲。后一起事件是指数提供商MSCI明晟有望在本月决定将一些中国A股首次纳入旗下一个基准。
“What the Chinese dream about is blue sky and blue water,” says Karine Hirn, partner at East Capital, an emerging market asset manager. “Investment into the global leaders in environmental protection is very exciting.”
“中国人的梦想是蓝天碧水，”新兴市场资产管理公司East Capital的合伙人习卡琳(Karine Hirn)表示。“投资于环保领域的全球领军者非常激动人心。”
Environmental degradation in China — the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases — has created an unstoppable “green” momentum, galvanised by social pressure and reinforced by Beijing’s regulatory will.
身为全球最大的温室气体排放国，中国的环境退化已经催生了一股不可阻挡的“绿色”势头，既受到社会压力的强大推动，又被北京方面的监管意志强化。
This means there is no chance that Beijing will follow the US and back out of the 2015 Paris agreement to combat climate change, says Wang Yao, director-general of the International Institute of Green Finance in Beijing.
北京绿色金融国际研究院(International Institute of Green Finance)院长王遥表示，这意味着北京方面不可能追随美国，退出旨在对抗气候变化的2015年巴黎协定。
Mr Trump’s move “makes China into a leader”, she adds in an interview. “But really we are just doing what we must do for our own domestic reasons. We face a very serious environmental challenge so we must continue with green development.”
她补充说，特朗普此举“把中国造就成一个领导者”。“但其实，我们只是出于我们自己的国内原因而做一些我们必须做的事情。我们面对一场严峻的环境挑战，所以我们必须坚持绿色发展。”
This imperative has accelerated an avalanche of investment in clean technologies, green transportation and renewable energy in the past few years. China has more than a third of the world’s wind power capacity; a quarter of its solar power; six of the top 10 solar-panel makers; and four of the top 10 wind turbine makers. It recorded more battery-only electric car sales last year than the rest of the world combined.
这一迫切需要已经在过去几年加快了对清洁技术、绿色交通和可再生能源的大举投资。中国拥有世界三分之一以上的风电装机容量、四分之一的太阳能发电能力、排名前10的太阳能电池板制造商中的6家，以及排名前10的风力发电机制造商中的4家。去年，中国的电动汽车销量高于世界其他地方的总和。
Ms Hirn estimates that a sum roughly equivalent to the GDP of Denmark is invested in Chinese clean tech each year, while the total market capitalisation of about 350 listed green Chinese companies is about $600bn. But although these are big numbers, she says, China will need far greater investment if it hopes to rehabilitate its contaminated air, land and water.
习卡琳估计，中国清洁技术领域每年得到的投资总额，与丹麦的国内生产总值(GDP)相仿；大约350家中国上市绿色企业的总市值约为6000亿美元。但她表示，尽管这些是巨大的数字，但中国将需要多得多的投资，才有希望恢复已经受到污染的空气、土壤和水体。
John Lin, portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein, is also animated by the green theme. Opportunities have come in industries where small polluting factories have been shut en masse, boosting profit margins for larger environmentally friendly group, he says.
联博(AllianceBernstein)投资组合经理林桦堂(John Lin)也对绿色主题感到振奋。他说，在污染严重的小厂大量关闭的行业，机遇已经到来，因为这提升了对环境友好的较大企业的利润率。
In paper production, shares in Nine Dragons Paper and Shandong Chenming Paper have impressed, while there have been beneficiaries in steel, non-ferrous metals and chemicals, Mr Lin says.
林桦堂表示，在造纸行业，玖龙纸业(Nine Dragons Paper)和山东晨鸣纸业(Shandong Chenming Paper)近期股票表现令人印象深刻，同时钢铁、有色金属和化工等行业也都涌现了受益者。
Ms Hirn favours the clean transportation theme, particularly companies involved in new energy vehicle technology. Opportunities beckon in waste management and air pollution control as local governments answer exhortations from Beijing to clean up their cities, she adds.
习卡琳对清洁运输主题情有独钟，尤其是涉及新能源汽车技术的公司。她补充说，随着地方政府响应北京方面对于整治城市环境的号召，废弃物管理和空气污染控制领域的机遇也在应运而生。
Many companies that stand to gain from the green agenda are listed on the $7tn domestic A-share market, which remains exotic for many overseas funds. However, this could change on June 20.
有望获益于绿色议程的许多公司在7万亿美元的国内A股市场上市，该市场对海外的众多基金而言仍是奇异的。但是，这种情况可能会在6月20日发生变化。
If MSCI decides to include A shares in its emerging markets index, passive managers will be obliged to take on exposure for the first time, while active managers seek the best Chinese stocks, says Caroline Owen, chief executive, of RMB Global Advisors in New York. “We are on the verge of one of the greatest rebalancings in global portfolios in recent years,” she says.
纽约RMB Global Advisors首席执行官卡罗琳?欧文(Caroline Owen)表示，如果MSCI明晟决定将A股纳入其新兴市场指数，被动基金管理公司不得不首次建立A股敞口，而主动型投资管理机构将寻觅最优秀的中国股票。“我们正站在近年来规模最大的全球投资组合再平衡之一的门槛上。”
MSCI delayed inclusion for a third straight year last June, citing regulatory worries and the need for greater accessibility for global investors. This year it has reduced the number of A shares slated for inclusion from 448 to 169, in a move that was intended to make inclusion more palatable to global asset managers.
MSCI在去年6月连续第三年推迟纳入A股，理由包括监管担忧和全球投资者需要更畅通的投资渠道。今年，这家指数提供商把考虑纳入的A股数量从448只减少至169只，此举旨在使全球资产管理者更愿意接受中国A股。
However, it is possible that yet again the decision will be negative. “I heard there were some technical issues that may make it tough to include A shares this year,” says a fund manager who declined to be identified.
然而，MSCI也有可能再次作出否定的决定。“我听说有一些技术问题可能使今年纳入A股有难度，”一名拒绝公开身份的基金经理表示。
