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The relentless rise of the dollar scorched emerging market currencies yesterday, sending China’s renminbi to its weakest level in eight years, while India’s rupee plumbed a record low.
美元昨日大幅上涨促使新兴市场货币全面下跌，人民币跌至8年来最低水平，而印度卢比跌至创纪录低点。
Broad currency weakness against the dollar has come as the bond market fully expects policy tightening by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting. Investors are also looking to next year and trying to gauge the extent of further Fed tightening under the proposed fiscal stimulus from president-elect Donald Trump.
新兴市场货币普遍对美元疲弱之际，债券市场完全预计美联储(Fed)将在12月的议息会议上收紧政策。投资者也在展望明年，试图判断在美国候任总统唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)提议的财政刺激方案下，美联储会在多大程度上进一步收紧政策。
Several EM currencies fell to record lows or levels last seen during the Asian financial crisis of 1998 as investors rotated out of the sector into US assets, including stock markets, which traded around record highs into yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday.
多种新兴市场货币跌至创纪录低点或者1998年亚洲金融危机期间的水平。投资者撤出新兴市场，转投美国资产，包括美国股市——日前创出历史新高的美国股市昨日感恩节休市。
The renminbi touched Rmb6.9023 to the dollar.
人民币兑美元汇率触及1美元兑6.9023元人民币。
Analysts said activity was reminiscent of the 2013 taper tantrum, when the US central bank announced plans to trim its bond-buying programme, prompting investors to pull money from the bond market, sending yields on US debt higher.
分析师们表示，这令人想起2013年的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)，当时美联储宣布了缩减其债券购买项目的计划，促使投资者将资金撤出债券市场，推动美国债券收益率上扬。
“There is a huge temptation to anoint this as a second taper tantrum,” said Koon Chow, a UBP strategist. “But this time around we have the prospect of stronger US GDP growth driving up US yields and the dollar. The difference means stronger global commodity prices, which will be helpful for commodity producers in emerging markets.
瑞士联合私立银行(UBP)策略师Koon Chow表示：“人们肯定会忍不住认为这是第二次‘缩减恐慌’，但这次是美国GDP增长更为强劲的前景推升了美国债券收益率和美元。这种不同意味着全球大宗商品价格将会更为强劲，这将有助于新兴市场的大宗商品生产商。”
“Outflows by retail investors from emerging markets are still in their early days.”
“散户从新兴市场撤出的趋势仍处于初期。”
Among the big shifts across EM foreign exchange, the onshore renminbi touched its weakest point since June 2008 , eating into its relative resilience against the dollar since the US election on November 8. It has fallen about 2 per cent against the dollar since then.
新兴市场外汇的重大转变包括，在岸人民币触及2008年6月以来的最低水平，侵蚀了11月8日美国大选后人民币对美元的相对弹性。自美国大选以来，人民币兑美元汇率下跌了大约2%。
The rupee reached Rs68.8600 against the dollar, its weakest level on record. India’s currency has also been caught in the downdraft from economic disruption caused by prime minister Narendra Modi’s ban on high-value bank notes, a policy designed to cut corruption and counterfeiting.
印度卢比兑美元汇率为1美元兑68.8600卢比，创下历史最低水平。卢比还因印度总理纳伦德拉.莫迪(Narendra Modi)禁止大额钞票流通之举扰乱经济而步入下降通道；这项政策的本意是打击腐败和假币。
Malaysia’s ringgit was at its weakest point since the Asian financial crisis of 1998, down 0.5 on the day at 4.4675 ringgit per dollar.
马来西亚的林吉特也处于1998年亚洲金融危机以来的最低水平，当日兑美元汇率下跌0.5%，至1美元兑4.4675林吉特。
The Philippine peso also passed a milestone last seen in 1998, hitting 50 pesos to the dollar.
菲律宾比索也刷新了1998年创下的最低纪录，触及1美元兑50比索的水平。
Mexico’s peso was down 0.4 per cent at 20.7303 to the dollar, some 3 per cent from its recent all-time low of 21.3942.
墨西哥比索下跌0.4%，至1美元兑20.7303比索，仅比其最近创下的21.3942历史最低点高3%左右。
“There is little doubt the Trump policy agenda of domestic reflation and negative views on trade/immigration is contributing to this exit of capital from EM,” said Tom Kenny, senior analyst at ANZ.
澳新银行(ANZ)高级分析师汤姆.肯尼(Tom Kenny)表示：“毫无疑问，特朗普关于国内再通胀的政策议程以及对贸易和移民的负面看法导致了新兴市场的这波资金撤出。”
“However, there are a number of other factors contributing to the sell-off, including unfavourable political developments in Malaysia and the Philippines and ongoing worries about Chinese capital outflows.”
“然而，此次新兴市场抛售还有其他许多因素，包括马来西亚和菲律宾不利的政治动态以及对中国资本外流的持续担忧。”
