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Is it time for the end of the world trade?
现在到了世界末日交易了吗？
In other words, is it time for fund managers to buy ultra-safe assets — the so-called end of the world trades — as the election of Donald Trump as US president heralds a new and highly uncertain period for investors?
换句话说，现在是基金经理购买超级安全资产（所谓的世界末日交易）的时候吗？因为唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)当选美国总统给投资者带来一段高度不确定的新时期？
Despite a boost to US stocks on expectations of Trump tax cuts and infrastructure spending, fund managers may be entering a period of extreme instability as a populist backlash threatens to create havoc with the markets.
尽管对特朗普减税以及基础设施支出的预期提振了美国股市，但基金经理们可能正进入一个极度不稳定时期，其间民粹主义反弹可能会震荡市场。
Lightning is not supposed to strike twice. But after the Brexit poll in June and Mr Trump’s victory last week, there is a danger that other populist electoral bolts from the blue will rock the world over the coming months.
闪电不应该两次击中同一个地方。但在今年6月的英国退欧公投和特朗普最近当选美国总统后，危险在于，其他突如其来的民粹主义投票结果将在未来几个月震撼世界。
The Italian government faces the prospect of a reverse in a constitutional referendum next month, National Front leader Marine Le Pen could win the French presidency next year, while Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, could be deposed in her country’s elections, also next year. Populist victories in any of these polls will represent not just a political sea change, but an oceanic upheaval.
意大利政府下月将面临被宪法公投赶下台的可能性。国民阵线(National Front)领袖马琳.勒庞(Marine Le Pen)可能会赢得明年的法国总统大选。德国总理安格拉.默克尔(Angela Merkel)可能会在该国明年大选中被赶下台。民粹主义势力在这些选举中的胜利不仅代表着政治剧变，而且代表着翻天覆地的全方位变化。
So does it make sense to plump for safety trades, rather than bank on the so-called Trump reflation trade that has boosted US stocks?
那么选择安全交易（而不是指望近期提振了美国股指的特朗普通货再膨胀交易）是否合理？
UK government bonds, particularly at the short end of the curve, could offer a good store of value. Gains in the gilts market have reversed over the past few weeks, making them more attractive.
英国政府债券（尤其是期限较短的）可能提供很好的保值手段。过去几周，英国金边债券市场的上涨趋势已逆转，这让它们显得更具吸引力。
There is also logic in buying sterling at low levels, as these UK assets have what some investors are describing as first-mover advantage. They have already taken their hit from the UK’s vote to leave the EU in June.
以低价买入英镑也有道理，这些英国资产具备某些投资者所称的先行者优势。英国在今年6月投票脱离欧盟已让它们遭受打击。
Gold is another haven trade, particularly with some investors arguing that Mr Trump’s policies may be inflationary. Gold is considered a good hedge against inflation and uncertainty.
黄金是另一种避险交易，特别是一些投资者辩称，特朗普的政策可能会引发通胀。黄金被视为对抗通胀和不确定性的良好避险工具。
With Mr Trump and other governments keen to use infrastructure investment as a way to boost their economies as monetary policy runs out of steam, stocks that benefit from this type of spending would make obvious trades in the equity markets.
随着货币政策逐渐失去效力，特朗普和其他国家的政府希望利用基础设施投资来刺激经济，获益于此类支出的股票将成为股市中的明显买入对象。
The possible reflation trade from Mr Trump’s victory is interesting. It shows the playbook in the wake of his election may not be the same as the one after Brexit.
特朗普成功当选可能带来的通货再膨胀交易很有意思。这表明，他当选后的股市操盘对策可能与英国退欧后不同。
If Mr Trump does implement his pledges on infrastructure, then that should help economic growth, not weigh on it as Brexit has done. Another factor that may help growth is the increasing likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will delay rate rises. Markets have scaled back expectations for rate increases in December.
如果特朗普果真兑现其基建承诺，那应该有利于经济增长，而不是像英国退欧那样令经济承压。另一个可能有利于经济增长的因素是美联储(Fed)推迟加息的可能性越来越大。市场已降低对美联储12月加息的预期。
This should restrain the dollar, which may be reaching its ceiling, even if the Fed tightens. This would be positive for emerging markets.
这应该会制约美元汇率（美元汇率可能正接近峰值）——即便美联储收紧也是如此。这将对新兴市场有利。
However, Mr Trump’s rhetoric and his actions may be very different. He could face opposition from Congress in terms of what he might like to do on infrastructure spending and tax cuts. Paul Ryan, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives, is a fiscal conservative, who will probably act as a constraint on Mr Trump and his plans.
然而，特朗普可能会言行不一。在基建支出和减税方面，他希望采取的行动可能会遭遇国会反对。众议院议长、共和党人保罗.瑞安(Paul Ryan)是个财政保守派，他很可能会牵制特朗普及其计划。
The other important factor is international trade. If Mr Trump commits himself to even half of what he has promised in terms of protecting the US and American workers’ jobs from overseas competition, then world trade and the US economy is likely to suffer.
另外一个重要因素是国际贸易。如果特朗普在保护美国和美国劳动者就业不受海外竞争影响方面哪怕只兑现了一半的承诺，世界贸易和美国经济也很可能会受损。
But, crucially, Mr Trump and Brexit may be the populist canaries in the coal mine. If the Italian referendum and French and German elections are overwhelmed by a wave of populist anger and resentment, then the whole EU project may be thrown into grave doubt, as well as the US economy.
然而，重要的是，特朗普和英国退欧可能是在煤矿中发出民粹主义警报的金丝雀。如果意大利宪法公投以及法国和德国大选被民粹主义愤怒和憎恨的浪潮所吞噬，那么整个欧盟一体化项目可能受到严重质疑，美国经济也是如此。
That really would leave fund managers with little choice but to play it safe with clients’ investments. When Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, assets across the board went into reverse, with very few exceptions. If that is repeated in the event of a growing populist backlash, the so-called end of the world trade may be limited to buying short-dated Treasury bills and cash — and little else.
那将真的会让基金经理几乎毫无选择，只能安全处置客户的投资。雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)在2008年倒闭后，各类资产全面逆转方向，几乎无一例外。如果这种情况在民粹主义反弹加剧时再度出现，那么所谓的世界末日交易可能仅限于购买短期美国国债和现金，几乎没有其他资产值得拥有。
