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Absence does not always make the heart grow fonder. On Thursday shares in ZTE, the Chinese telecom equipment maker, resumed trading after a one-month suspension. The market sold them down by one-tenth.
小别未必带来好感。周四，中国电信设备制造商中兴通讯(ZTE)在停牌一个月后恢复交易。股价下挫十分之一。
They may have further to fall. In early March, the company said it was under investigation by the US for violating controls on exports to Iran. US companies were barred from selling products to ZTE (although they were subsequently permitted to do so under licences that run until June). On Thursday, at the reopen, ZTE said the outcome of the investigation was “highly uncertain”.
中兴股价还可能进一步下跌。3月初，该公司表示正在接受美国商务部调查，原因是涉嫌违反美国对伊朗的出口管制。美国公司不得向中兴销售产品（尽管随后他们又被允许按照许可证销售至今年6月）。中兴在周四恢复交易时表示，调查结果仍有“重大不确定性”。
The incident is a reminder of Chinese companies’ reliance on US technology. Nomura estimates that ZTE sources up to 15 per cent of its inputs by value from the US. Given the risks that have come to light, this will have to change. But China’s efforts to acquire US technology outright has had mixed results. State-backed Tsinghua Unigroup’s bid to buy Micron failed, although chip designer Integrated Silicon Solutions was sold to a Chinese buyer. ZTE peer Huawei, which announced stellar numbers last week, has taken an alternative tack: last year, it spent 15 per cent of revenues on research and development, up one percentage point from 2014. That is in line with tech leaders such as Broadcom, and a few percentage points above ZTE.
这起事件提醒世人，中国公司依赖美国科技。野村证券(Nomura)估计，按价值计算，中兴从美国采购高达15%的投入。鉴于这次显露的风险，这一局面必须改变。但中资直接买断美国科技的努力迄今有成有败。政府背景的清华紫光(Tsinghua Unigroup)竞购美光(Micron)失败，但芯片设计企业芯成半导体有限公司(Integrated Silicon Solution, ISSI)被卖给了中国买家。中兴的同行、上周发布了可喜业绩的华为(Huawei)，则选择了另一种策略：去年，华为将总营收的15%投入研发，比2014年高出一个百分点。这一水平与博通(Broadcom)等科技行业龙头企业一致，比中兴则高出几个百分点。
ZTE must spend to grow. Delayed 2015 results, also released on Thursday, showed revenues up less than a quarter, lagging behind both forecasts and Huawei, four times larger but growing at 37 per cent. The uptick in ZTE sales was skewed towards domestic infrastructure spending, expected to slow next year. Although there were impressive gains in the US handset market, growth in Europe, the Americas and Oceania (which are lumped together) was a measly tenth.
中兴必须加大支出以推动增长。推迟至周四发布的2015年业绩报告显示，营收增长低于四分之一，逊于预期和华为；华为的规模四倍于中兴，却实现了37%的营收增长。中兴的销售增长主要来自国内基础设施建设开支，预计明年将放缓。虽然在美国手机市场取得令人印象深刻的进展，但欧洲、美洲和大洋洲（合并报告）的增长只有区区十分之一。
One way ZTE can try to improve these metrics is to lift its brand, currently focused on low-end phones. Its strategy of investing in high-profile US basketball sponsorships has helped it gain share in the handset market, but with prices as low as $30 it must sell a lot to make much difference. Moving upmarket will demand a step-change in R&D, likely to hit short-term profits.
中兴可以尝试改善这些指标的方法之一是提升其品牌，目前重点是在低端手机市场。该公司赞助美国重大篮球赛事的投资帮助其赢得了手机市场份额，但以低至30美元的价格，它得卖出很多手机才能实质性提升业绩。向高端市场进军就需要在研发上有大动作，这可能会影响短期利润。
Whether or not the US ultimately forgives ZTE’s transgressions, the company’s profitability is about to become more notable by its absence.
不管美国官方最终是否原谅中兴违反管制的行为，该公司缺乏盈利能力的问题值得关注。
