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Looking back on three months’ worth of extreme market volatility it is clear that global currency wars have entered a new and more complicated phase. In effect, volatility has neutered the power of those central banks that have been most committed to weakening their currencies. The Bank of Japan provides the most notable example of impotence.
回顾持续3个月之久的极端市场波动，可以看出全球货币战显然进入了一个更加复杂的新阶段。实际上，市场波动已经让那些最坚定地致力于本币贬值的央行失去了战斗力。彰显这种无能为力的最显著的例子就是日本央行(BoJ)。
It was quite a paradox that a country with Japan’s level of public sector debt turned into a haven in a global market storm, but that was the case in the first quarter of 2016. The sharp appreciation of the yen against the dollar, despite negative policy interest rates, reversed the normal currency market laws of gravity. And since the equity market has tended to move in tandem with the yen since the inception of Abenomics in 2012 — logical enough given the impact of competitive devaluation on export volumes or corporate profits — Japanese equities have tumbled.
日本这样一个有着如此之高公债水平的国家，居然能够成为全球市场风暴中的避风港，这实在是有悖常理，但在2016年第一季度情况恰恰就是这样。尽管日本推出了负政策利率，但日元相对美元仍急剧升值，这颠覆了正常的外汇市场“引力定律”。由于自2012年安倍经济学(Abenomics)出台以来，日本股市往往随日元汇率变动而变动（考虑到竞争性贬值对出口规模或者企业利润的影响，这完全符合逻辑），因此日本股市已大幅下跌。
In Europe, meantime, the super-dovish rhetoric of Mario Draghi no longer works its magic. On the announcement of a monetary package more radical than expected last month, the euro rose against the dollar. The speech by Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen last week, in which she indicated that US rates might stay lower for longer, then rubbed salt in the eurozone’s wounds.
与此同时，在欧洲，欧洲央行(ECB)行长马里奥•德拉吉（Mario Draghi，上图）的超级鸽派的言论失去了魔力。上月欧洲央行宣布了一套比预期更为激进的货币政策方案后，欧元对美元升值。美联储(Fed)主席珍妮特•耶伦（Janet Yellen，右图）上周在讲话中暗示美国将在更长时间内将利率保持在较低水平，这让欧元区雪上加霜。
Whatever its motivation, the Fed could be said to have had its revenge. The weakening dollar helped roll back, albeit modestly, competitive devaluations that grabbed enlarged shares of global output and corporate profits growth for Japan and the eurozone at US expense. But the US had, of course, been an earlier beneficiary of devaluation when the Fed launched the first round of quantitative easing after the financial crisis. Nor is the fight over yet.
无论其动机是什么，美联储可以说是报了仇。美元疲弱有助于反击竞争性贬值（尽管帮助作用有限）——竞争性贬值让日本和欧元区抢到了更大份额的全球产出和企业利润增长，受损的却是美国。当然，此前当美联储在金融危机后推出首轮量化宽松时，美国也曾是本币贬值的受益者。这场战斗并没有结束。
In all of this China stands out as a non-combatant. Despite lingering perceptions on Capitol Hill about mercantilist exchange rate policy and the fulminations of Donald Trump, the frontrunner to be the Republicans’ presidential nominee, the People’s Bank of China has spent billions shoring up an overvalued currency. The PBoC’s warrior instincts have been reserved for the hedge funds that are betting on a devaluation that the central bank does not want. The hedgier have learnt the hard way that the adage about not fighting the Fed may also apply to the PBoC.
中国明显没有参与这场战斗。尽管国会山依然残留着中国推行重商主义汇率政策的印象，在提名战中领跑的美国共和党总统竞选人唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)也猛烈抨击中国的汇率政策，但中国央行已拿出大量美元来支撑被高估的人民币。那些与中国央行对着干、押注人民币贬值的对冲基金独自领教了该行天生的战斗精神。对冲基金付出了惨痛代价才明白，别跟美联储对着干的格言也适用于中国央行。
The other notable non-combatant has been Britain which, thanks to the looming possibility of exit from the EU, has become a devaluationist by default. With the current account deficit running at around 7 per cent of GDP this could not be more timely. Given the unplanned nature of sterling’s decline, the term competitive devaluation scarcely applies.
另外一个明显没有参与战斗的是英国。得益于日益迫近的“退欧”可能性，英国自动成了一个货币贬值国。眼下英国经常账户赤字与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率达到约7%，英镑贬值可能恰逢其时。鉴于英镑贬值就性质而言并非刻意为之，因此基本不能称为竞争性贬值。
The change in the dynamics of currency wars leaves Japan and the eurozone in an uncomfortable place. Devaluation was the one component of their monetary policies that appeared to have much effect. But the ability of their central banks to raise inflation to meet their targets is now even more in doubt than before. That matters for the world. While competitive devaluation was conventionally regarded as a beggar-thy-neighbour policy it could be globally benign if the monetary loosening it entailed helped lift the world economy further from the threat of deflation.
货币战形势的这种变化让日本和欧元区处境尴尬。货币贬值是它们货币政策中少有的收效不错的部分。但现在它们的央行提升通胀至目标水平的能力被打上了一个比以往更大的问号。这对世界很重要。传统而言，竞争性贬值被视为一种“以邻为壑”的政策，但如果贬值所需的货币放松帮助全球经济进一步摆脱通缩威胁，那么这对全球或许是件好事。
What we are left with is the hope that the US economy will prove more robust than Ms Yellen’s speech suggested, the possibility that currencies may realign, and the recognition that currency wars have been an important driver of policy rates and bond yields into negative territory.
现在留给我们的是期待事实证明美国经济比耶伦讲话所暗示的更健康，汇率可能重新调整以及承认货币战一直是将政策利率和债券收益率推向负值的重要力量。
This inflicts a profits squeeze on a fragile eurozone banking system. That may well end up entrenching pessimistic sentiment in households and businesses that have already brought forward spending in response to QE and are thus less responsive to interest rate signals. At the same time these low or negative rates cause pension liabilities to balloon, which is hardly conducive to animal spirits in the boardrooms of corporate sponsors.
这将令脆弱的欧元区银行体系的利润受到挤压。这最终很有可能会加剧家庭和企业的悲观情绪，它们已为应对量化宽松将支出提前了，因此对利率信号的反应将不那么敏感。与此同时，这些低利率或负利率将导致养老金给付责任大幅加重，这很难有利于养老金出资企业董事会里的冒险精神。
The tragedy is that the lowest interest rates in living memory are not being used to engage in badly needed infrastructure spending. Everyone agrees that monetary policy is carrying too much of the burden in an anaemic post-crisis recovery. No one seems to want to do much about it. Policy paralysis remains the order of the day.
可悲的是，我们记忆中最低水平的利率没有用于启动亟需的基础设施支出。所有人都认为，在危机后的疲弱复苏中，货币政策承担了太重的担子。似乎没有人想对此采取什么行动。总体而言，世界仍然处于政策瘫痪状态。
