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It is expected these days that a meeting of the Group of 20 leading industrialised nations will be a damp squib. This weekend’s gathering in Shanghai was no exception.
如今，人们对20国集团(G20)的会议已经不抱什么指望了。上周末在上海举行的会议也不例外。
But when even the International Monetary Fund and the OECD forum put diplomacy aside to warn of flatlining global growth and urge fiscal spending to boost demand, it is surely time for the world’s finance ministers to get their act together.
但是，当就连国际货币基金组织(IMF)和经合组织(OECE)都抛开外交辞令，对全球增长停滞发出警告并敦促利用财政支出来提振需求时，眼下就肯定到了全球财长们应该一致采取行动的时候了。
The lesson of the global financial crisis of 2009 is that, when the G20 gets going, it can act in a decisive and co-ordinated way. However, we should not have to wait for the crisis to hit before our financial leaders take the action needed to deal with it.
2009年全球金融危机让我们知道，当20国集团行动起来时，它可以果断、协调一致地行事。然而，各国财政领袖不应等到危机来临时，才采取必要的应对措施。
Things have not yet reached crisis point — and they may not. The US economy is still growing. Falling oil prices are good for consumers. And it is a tribute to Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, that recent market instability has not triggered another sovereign debt scare across southern Europe.
局势还没到爆发危机的地步——或许也不会到。美国经济仍在增长。油价下降对消费者有利。多亏了欧洲央行(ECB)行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的努力，近来的市场动荡没有再次使人们对南部欧洲的主权债务产生恐慌。
Yet economic confidence is clearly draining fast on both sides of the Atlantic. It is hard to be confident that the next move in US interest rates will be up and not down. With investment and trade growth already weak, the chances of a more significant slowdown have certainly grown in recent weeks. Governments should be preparing for the worst, not hoping for the best.
不过，在大西洋两岸，人们对于经济的信心显然在快速丧失。很难对美国下一步将加息、而不是降息抱有信心。由于投资和贸易增长已处于疲软状态，近几周来，经济增长出现更显著放缓的可能性无疑增加了。各国政府应当做最坏的打算，而不是抱最大希望。
One problem is focus. Back in 2009, the whole world was alive to the risk of global depression. Not so today. Europe is focused on Brexit and the refugee crisis; America is in pre-election paralysis; meanwhile Asian countries are trying to convince everyone there is no need for panic, as their stock markets are gripped by fear.
一个问题在于关注度。2009年，全世界都关注着全球衰退的风险。如今则并非如此。欧洲关注的是英国退欧和难民危机；美国处于大选前的“瘫痪状态”；而亚洲国家在其股票市场被恐惧裹挟之时，正努力让所有人相信，没有必要恐慌。
Moreover, finance ministers have become used to relying on central banks to keep the world economy growing, even though monetary policy is clearly running out of road. Difficult times demand desperate action — but a wholesale shift to negative interest rates risks making things worse not better.
另外，财长们已习惯于指望央行来维持世界经济增长——尽管货币政策明显已黔驴技穷。艰难时期需要孤注一掷的大胆行动——但全体转向负利率，可能导致局势恶化、而不是好转。
There is no sign that cautious consumers or businesses are going to be encouraged to spend or invest by a further rate cut or more quantitative easing. But negative rates in Europe are biting into the margins of already cautious banks.
目前没有迹象表明，进一步降息或者加大量化宽松力度，将会推动谨慎的消费者或企业进行消费或投资。但是，欧洲的负利率已经开始侵蚀本已谨慎的银行业的利润。
And as Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, warned at the weekend, trying to insulate domestic savers from negative rates is just competitive devaluing by any other name.
正如英国央行(BoE)行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)上周末警告的那样，努力保护国内储户免受负利率的影响，只不过是搞竞争性贬值的另一种说法。
Stagnating growth, fragile investor confidence, fears of competitive devaluation spreading mistrust, isolationist politicians flourishing in the polls — the echoes of the 1930s should be enough to focus minds on making the case for co-operation, open markets and finding new policies to deliver more inclusive economic growth.
增长停滞、投资者信心脆弱、对竞争性贬值的恐惧导致四处弥漫着不信任情绪、持孤立主义立场的政客民意高涨——这些让人联想起上世纪30年代的情形，应当足以让人们集中精力，去支持合作和开放市场，去寻找能创造更具包容性的经济增长的新政策。
Which makes it all the more worrying that finance ministers instead spent the weekend falling out with each other: China blaming Japan, America blaming Europe and the Germans blaming everyone but themselves.
然而，在上周末的G20财长会议上，财长们却把时间花在了吵架上：中国指责日本，美国指责欧洲，德国人指责自己以外的其他所有人。这使得眼下的局面更令人忧心了。
So, here is what the G20 should have agreed last weekend, and needs to get back to as a matter of urgency.
那么，以下几点是20国集团本应在上周末的会议上达成一致、眼下需要回过头来紧急着手处理的事情。
First, it needs to demonstrate a collective commitment to collaboration, not competition, on exchange rates and monetary policy. That means agreed rules of the game on negative rates.
首先，20国集团需要展示出在汇率和货币政策上进行合作（而不是竞争）的共同决心。这意味着，要就实施负利率的“游戏规则”达成一致。
China does need to adjust its exchange rate. This must be done as part of a concerted global effort to boost growth, not through unilateral action which feeds further instability and suspicion.
中国确实需要调整其汇率。这必须作为全球刺激增长共同努力的一部分来完成，而不是单方面采取行动，后一种做法只会引发更多的动荡和怀疑。
Second, and related to this, the G20 needs to listen to the OECD and IMF on fiscal activism. Countries with room for manoeuvre should boost growth through infrastructure spending. That includes the US, Germany and, yes, Britain too. Medium-term fiscal consolidation is vital. But a slide in growth will make things worse. And the cost of funding these investments is very low.
其次，与此相关的是，20国集团需要听取经合组织和IMF有关采取积极财政政策的意见。尚有政策操作空间的国家应当通过基建支出刺激增长。这类国家包括美国、德国，是的，也包括英国。中期财政整固是至关重要的。但增长下滑将使局势更趋恶化。而且，这些投资的资金成本是非常低廉的。
The G20 came into being 17 years ago, with the world’s main emerging markets as members, because the G7 was seen as illegitimate and ineffective. It now has to prove that its existence makes co-ordination easier and not harder.
17年前，由于七国集团(G7)被视为不合理、不起作用，世界上主要的新兴市场国家也被纳入进来，由此诞生了20国集团。如今， 20国集团必须证明自己的存在使国际协调合作变得更容易，而不是更困难了。
It came of age back in 2009 when Gordon Brown, then UK prime minister, spurred the world’s leading economies into action to prevent a depression. It is now time for today’s statesmen and women to show that they too know how to lead. Before it is too late.
2009年标志着20国集团的成熟。那一年，时任英国首相戈登•布朗(Gordon Brown)敦促世界主要经济体行动起来，共同阻止经济衰退。现在，到了如今的政治家们证明他们也知道该如何领导的时候了。时间宝贵，莫延误时机。
