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By keeping interest rates on hold a while longer, the Federal Reserve has given emerging markets, braced for possible capital outflows with rising yields in the US, at least a temporary reprieve. And by not including China in its benchmark indices quite yet, MSCI has indirectly helped support other emerging markets, as fund managers underinvested in Chinese shares would have had to sell down other markets to adjust to new weightings. But there is not much other good news on the horizon.
通过在更长时间内保持利率不变，美联储(fed)至少给了新兴市场暂时的喘息时间，后者正在准备应对美国收益率上升可能导致的资本外流。由于仍未将中国纳入其基准指数，MSCI明晟间接帮助支撑了其他新兴市场，因为如果中国被纳入MSCI新兴市场指数的话，在中国股市投资不多的基金管理公司将不得不在其他市场中减持以适应新的权重结构。但除此之外眼下就没有多少好消息了。
Today, emerging market central bankers have two contradictory concerns. They fear low rates and the temptation for their borrowers to take on too much debt when it is priced attractively. And they also fear the inevitable end of the low rates that will make the debt burden heavier.
如今，新兴市场的央行官员们怀着两种相互矛盾的担忧。他们担心低利率，以及在利率具有吸引力时借款人会忍不住过度负债。他们也担心低利率必然会走到尽头，从而加重债务负担。
But that is only part of the reason why this particular rainy season the clouds are especially heavy in emerging Asia. Analysts are trying to understand the paradox that while today there seems to be plenty of liquidity in the world, the banks are not channelling that abundant capital to the real economy to support growth.
但这只是解释这个雨季笼罩新兴亚洲国家的阴云为何尤其浓重的部分原因。分析师们正试图弄懂一个悖论：虽然当今世界似乎有很多的流动性，但银行并未引导充裕的资本流入实体经济以支持增长。
Part of the reason must be the fact that Asian corporates have borrowed a lot. Private debt in Asia alone amounted to 125 per cent of gross domestic product in the final quarter of 2014, says the BIS, and too much of it was in dollars.
一个必然的原因是，亚洲企业已经大量负债。国际清算银行(BIS)称，2014年最后一个季度，亚洲仅私人债务一项就达到了国内生产总值(GDP)的125%，而且其中美元债务太多。
Rate rises, whenever they materialise, will be especially damaging for this large group. The combination of financial and economic stress with more debt and fewer revenues to support borrowings is likely to prove challenging worldwide, but especially for companies in the region.
无论何时真正加息，都将给这一庞大群体造成尤其严重的损失。金融及经济压力、债务增加以及收入减少从而影响偿债，这些因素相叠加在世界任何地方都具有挑战性，但对亚洲企业来说挑战尤甚。
The macro situation is also sobering. For years, Asia grew on the back of exports to developed markets. It was a formula that worked first for Japan, and then for South Korea and Taiwan. But it does not seem to be working any longer. World trade has been almost flat for the past three years and been slower than (also anaemic) global GDP.
宏观经济形势也不容乐观。多年来，亚洲依靠向发达市场出口实现增长。这种模式首先在日本取得成功，然后是韩国和台湾地区。但它似乎不再有效。过去三年，世界贸易增长几近持平，增速甚至低于同样疲软的全球GDP增长。
“This is something we haven’t seen in a generation,” notes David Lubin, an economist with Citigroup in London. Trade matters not only because it supports economic growth, but because it cements relations among countries and should reduce geopolitical tensions. It is therefore of double concern that this year the outlook has worsened.
花旗集团(Citigroup)驻伦敦的经济学家戴维•卢宾(David Lubin)指出：“这是我们在一代人时间里都未曾见到过的景象。”贸易之所以重要，不仅在于它支撑经济增长，而且还因为它能够巩固国家间的关系，可以减缓地缘政治紧张局势。所以，今年贸易前景已经恶化这一点令人倍加担心。
Today, emerging economies are losing market share in the developed world as the growth rate in the volume of exports from emerging countries is below the rate of growth of the volume of imports in the developed world. That is true both for commodity exporters (whose year-on-year volumes are turning negative) and manufacturing exporters, says Mr Lubin. Only a few nations, including China and Mexico, have been exceptions to this trend.
如今，由于新兴市场国家出口总额的增长率低于发达国家进口总额的增长率，新兴经济体正失去在发达国家的市场份额。卢宾说，无论是大宗商品出口国（出口总额同比出现负增长），还是制造业出口国，情况都是如此。只有中国、墨西哥等少数国家例外。
So the developed world is not the catalyst for growth that it was for developing nations. Meanwhile, China, whose demand fuelled a rise in income for commodity producers such as Australia and Indonesia and manufacturers outside the mainland that were vital to its own supply chains, is both reducing its demand for goods from beyond its borders and taking market share from others. “China seems to be outcompeting emerging markets in an environment where the overall weakness of world trade growth leaves developing countries badly exposed,” Mr Lubin concludes.
因此，发达世界如今不是推动发展中国家增长的催化剂，尽管它过去是。与此同时，中国正一方面减少对海外商品的需求，一方面从别国手中夺取市场份额。在以前，中国的需求曾推动了澳大利亚、印尼等大宗商品生产国以及中国内地以外对其供应链至关重要的制造国的收入增长。卢宾总结说：“在世界贸易增长整体疲软使发展中国家承受很大风险之际，中国似乎在与新兴市场竞争中占优。”
The most optimistic spin to put on all this is that China’s shift to becoming a more active exporter of capital and a vast offshore investor will inspire growth in a different paradigm. Both at the Boao Forum in March and in Shanghai at last weekend’s Lujiazui Forum, government officials such as Li Keping of CIC and a big shareholder in the new Silk Road Fund, testified to China’s determination to “play a bigger role in boosting the world economy” through the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank. “We have the highest savings rate in the world and we should leverage this advantage and export capital,” added Jin Qi, the chairwoman of that fund. Every day it seems a new fund is launched, such as one for central Europe from China Exim Bank.
对这一切所能做的最乐观的解读是：中国朝着成为更加活跃的资本输出国和对外投资大国的方向转变，将以一种不同的范式推动世界经济增长。在3月举行的博鳌论坛，以及上周末上海陆家嘴论坛上，包括中投公司(CIC)总经理李克平在内，一些政府官员表明了中国要通过亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)和新开发银行(New Development Bank)，“在提振世界经济方面发挥更大作用”的决心。中投公司是丝路基金(Silk Road Fund)的大股东。丝路基金董事长金琦补充说：“我们有世界最高的储蓄率，我们应该利用这一优势输出资本。”似乎每天都有一只新的基金成立，比如中国进出口银行(China Exim Bank)专注欧洲中部地区的基金。
The world can use China’s capital — and, by the way, more of it will be in the Chinese currency. But whether even $4tn in mainland reserves is enough to lift the world out of its doldrums is uncertain.
世界可以利用中国的资本——而且，其中将会有更多的人民币资本。但不确定的是，中国内地4万亿美元的外汇储备是否足以让世界走出经济不景气。
