评论
打印
Times are hard for Japanese with a sweet tooth as the country bemoans the latest side effect of Abenomics: a surge in the price of chocolate.
对于喜爱甜食的日本人来说，现在的日子有点不好过，该国正抱怨安倍经济学(Abenomics)的一个最新副作用：巧克力价格飙升。
Over the past two weeks, all three of Japan’s largest confectioners — Meiji, Morinagaand Lotte — have announced sharp increases in the price of any sweet that uses cocoa.
过去两周，日本三大糖果制造商——明治(Meiji)、森永(Morinaga)和乐天(Lotte)均宣布大幅上调所有以可可粉为原料的产品的价格。
The price rises reflect the yen’s latest slide, taking it from Y120 to Y125 against the dollar since mid-May, a move with decidedly mixed consequences for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic stimulus.
此番涨价反映出日元汇率的最新下跌行情，自5月中旬以来，日元兑美元汇率已从120日元兑1美元跌至125日元兑1美元，对于日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)推出的经济刺激计划而言，这必然会产生好坏不一的结果。
A weaker currency should help exporters, while higher inflation is one of Mr Abe’s main goals. Economists worry, however, that rising prices for imported food will drain Japanese consumers of cash and confidence, hampering the recovery of domestic demand.
汇率下跌应会帮助出口商，而通胀上升是安倍晋三的主要目标之一。然而，经济学家担心，进口食品价格上涨将损耗日本消费者的现金和信心，从而阻碍内需的回暖。
Deploying very similar language in their press releases, each confectioner said it had done its best to absorb the cost of imported raw materials, but was now having to pass the costs on to customers.
这三家糖果制造商在新闻发布会上使用了非常类似的措辞，它们都表示，已尽全力消化进口原材料的成本，但现在不得不将成本转嫁给消费者。
At Lotte, the prices of its eight best-selling chocolates are up 10 per cent; the largest increase at Meiji is 11.9 per cent on its Banana Chocco product.
乐天的8种最畅销的巧克力价格上涨10%；明治价格涨幅最大的是其香蕉巧克力(Banana Chocco)产品，上涨11.9%。
Nor is it just chocolates. The price of everything from curry to cup noodles is on the up, with food inflation running about 2 per cent, compared with the flat level of core goods prices.
涨价的不仅仅是巧克力产品。从咖喱到杯面的所有产品都在涨价，日本的食品通胀率为2%左右，而核心商品价格却未见上涨。
“We are certainly hearing more companies increasing prices in line with increasing import costs relating to the yen,” said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
美银美林(Bank Of America Merrill Lynch)首席日本外汇策略师山田秀佑(Shusuke Yamada)表示：“我们确实听到有更多企业在涨价，以应对以日元计价的进口价格上涨。”
“But the ability of the companies to raise prices is also because the deflationary mindset of Japan is disappearing, so companies are more confident passing the rising costs of raw materials on to customers.”
“但企业之所以能够涨价还因为日本的通缩观念在消失，因此企业有更多的信心将不断上涨的原材料成本转嫁给消费者。”
Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo, said companies tend to use the yen as a convenient excuse for price rises aimed at boosting their margins.
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)驻东京首席经济学家白川弘道(Hiromichi Shirakawa)表示，企业往往会利用日元作为涨价的便利借口，而它们涨价是为了提高利润率。
“The Bank of Japan may want to argue the phenomenon shows a rising expected inflation rate,” he said. “In reality, it seems to us, this is not about expected inflation as much as companies wanting to get some money back.”
“日本央行(Bank of Japan)可能希望辩称，这种现象显示出通胀预期日益上升，”他表示，“实际上，在我们看来，这与其说关乎通胀预期，不如说是因为企业想收回一些现金。”
The bump in food prices will help keep headline inflation above zero through the summer — with propaganda benefits, at least, for Japan’s central bank. The economic effect will depend on whether the boost to exports outweighs the hit to consumption.
食品价格上涨将有利于在今年整个夏季将整体通胀率保持在零以上，至少对于日本央行而言，这具有宣传效应。其经济效应将取决于对出口的提振是否超过对消费的冲击。
Mr Shirakawa thinks the benefits will be modest, because sluggish global demand means low export prices are offsetting the boost from a weaker currency. Meanwhile, it will be harder to raise consumption, with wage increases for Japanese workers absorbed by higher prices at the supermarket.
白川弘道认为，汇率下跌对经济的好处将较微弱，因为全球需求乏力意味着低出口价格正抵消日元走软所带来的提振作用。与此同时，日本劳动者的薪资上涨被超市涨价吸收，提高消费的难度将加大。
“I think the average Japanese will feel they are getting somewhat poorer,” he says.
他表示：“我认为，日本普通人会感到自己变穷了。”
Analysts at Nomura argue that Japanese households are well able to tolerate a weaker yen but that the speed of yen depreciation makes a big difference.
野村(Nomura)分析师称，日本家庭具备很强的能力忍受日元贬值，但日元贬值的速度会有很大影响。
“While it takes some time for the yen depreciation’s positive impact on exports to be felt by the domestic economy, the prices of imported energy and domestic consumer prices rise much more quickly, effectively reducing real income levels of Japanese households,” noted economist Tomo Kinoshita in a report.
经济学家木下智夫(Tomo Kinoshita)在一份报告中指出：“国内经济需要一段时间才能感受到日元贬值对出口的积极影响，但进口能源和国内消费者物价上涨的速度要快得多，这事实上降低了日本家庭的实际收入水平。”
With Japan’s economy trundling forward, the path of the yen is likely to depend greatly on how fast the US moves towards a rise in interest rates, and whether China manages a soft landing for its economy.
随着日本经济缓慢向前，日元汇率的走势可能会在很大程度上取决于，美国迈向加息的步伐有多快，以及中国是否能实现国内经济软着陆。
“The yen is getting to the point where the dollar rally has been driven by technical factors and could stall at any time,” said Mr Yamada.
山田秀佑表示：“日元兑美元汇率即将到达这样一个点，即一直受到技术因素推动的美元升值可能会随时停止。”
