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1.FIFAand corruption allegations - we have heard it all before. So what's new?
1. 国际足协和腐败指控我们都已经耳熟能详了。这次有什么新意?
It is true that football's governing body has been mired in bribery allegations for years. Recently this has centred on claims – strongly denied by all involved – that Russia and Qatar in effect bought the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. Fifa investigated the claims and, to no one's surprise, found nothing to substantiate them.
的确，足球管理机构多年来一直深陷腐败指控之中。这一次面临的指控是，俄罗斯和卡塔尔的2018和2022年世界杯的举办权是贿赂得到的，而涉事官员对此都矢口否认。国际足协对这项指控做了调查，结果发现没有足够的证据证实这项指控，这个结果也在大家预料之中。
Three things are new: geography, the nature of the investigation and the nature of its evidence-gathering. The arrest last week of 14 Fifa officials and marketing executives was sparked by a four-year US department of justice investigation. Many think it was timed deliberately to place maximum pressure on Fifa president Sepp Blatter before Friday's crucial vote on his presidency, which he won.
这次有三点跟以往不同:地理位置，这次调查的性质，以及这次收集证据的方式。上周逮捕十四名国际足协官员以及营销人员的是美国司法调查部的一个成立了四年的部门。许多人认为这是蓄意向国际足协主席Sepp Blatter施压，而他正面临着周五的至关重要的主席人选的投票（最后还是成功连任）。
It is significant that the US is now leading the way in tackling corruption at Fifa after European investigators have conspicuously failed to land a blow. The Americans have had a Fifa whistleblower, Chuck Blazer, helping them amass large volumes of evidence. The detail in the 164-page indictment unveiled last week is astonishing. It paints a picture of systemic corruption on the part of Fifa officials and marketing officials over two decades. The corruption allegedly centres on marketing and television deals for regional football competitions in the Americas, not the World Cup.
继欧洲调查者对于FIFA的腐败无能为力之后，很明显美国现在挑起了这杆大旗。美国人这次得到告密者Chuck Blazer的帮助，他帮忙收集了大量的证据。上周公布的长达164页的指控书着实让人很吃惊。这些证据显示了在超过二十年的时间里部分FIFA官员和营销官员的系统式腐败。据称，腐败主要集中在美洲当地的足球赛事中的市场营销和电视转播协议上面，关于世界杯的腐败并未证实。
Chuck Blazer has helped the US amass a huge evidence file. Photograph: Jasper Juinen - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images
Chuck Blazer 帮助美国收集了大量证据。摄影：Jasper Juinen - FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images
2. Hurray for the Americans! Is a new sheriff riding into town and cleaning up the mess?
2. 美国人真给力!但这是新官上任三把火吗？
Football fans will truly hope so. But, despite efforts to paint the investigation as a total success, the indictment hints that Fifa officials knew of the US investigation long ago, suggesting some may have covered their tracks. The indictment states that "beginning in or about 2012 and continuing through the present, as their awareness of law enforcement scrutiny began to increase, many conspirators engaged in additional conduct designed to prevent detection of their own illegal activities and to provide one another with mutual aid and protection".
球迷们真是希望如此。尽管这次反腐调查进行的很成功，但是这些证据也显示，在很久以前就有些官员发现了这项调查，从而很好的躲藏了起来。指控书上说"从2012年左右到现在，一些官员由于发现法律强制的检查逐渐增加，他们开始致力于阻止对于他们的腐败调查，同时也为其他人提供帮助和庇护。"
The indictment suggests that a key witness was pressured so that he or she would not disclose everything; that officials were warned they were being recorded and that evidence was destroyed. How crucial these factors will be in bringing about a successful prosecution remains to be seen. Then there remains the issue of extradition. The Americans have failed to extradite the film director Roman Polanski from Switzerland on sex abuse charges. It could be a long time before those arrested in Switzerland last week see a US courtroom. Given the complexity of the investigation, this case will drag on for years.
指控书上表明，关键证人都被施压以确保他们不会泄露什么，那些官员被警告说已经将他们记录在案并且证据都已销毁。这些措施都确保了这次起诉的成功。美国之前就没能以性虐罪把Roman Polanski 导演从瑞士引渡回来，而这次在瑞士被逮捕的官员估计又得好久才能引渡到美国。鉴于这项调查的复杂性，这个案子估计得耗费好几年。
3. But isn't Sepp Blatter fatally wounded by the scandal?
3. 足协主席Sepp Blatter不是应该由于腐败丑闻而身败名裂吗?
Crucially, the scandal is confined almost exclusively to the Americas and, with the exception of an allegation about securing votes for South Africa's World Cup bid, focuses on the allegedly corrupt practices surrounding the sale of television and marketing deals. Nothing that has emerged so far has threatened to eject Blatter from his post. Indeed, if anything he has emerged stronger within Fifa. Many countries, notably those in Africa, who lionise him for channelling vast amounts of money their way to nurture the game at the grassroots, see the US action as a crass political act of revenge for America failing to win the rights to host the World Cup.
仔细观察就会发现，这次丑闻仅限于美洲地区，并不涉及关于南非世界杯买卖投票的指控，并且这些指控也仅限于电视转播和市场营销方面的腐败。没有什么证据能够威胁到Sepp Blatter的连任。其实，如果美国如果调查的更加深入的话。一些国家，尤其是非洲的把发展足球视为赚大钱机会的国家，会把这认为是美国没有成功竞选举办世界杯的报复。
4. So nothing is going to change, then?
4. 所以说一切照旧，那么接下来呢?
Well, just wait for the smoke to clear. A source familiar with the investigation suggested to the Observer that the US prosecutors will look to "work their way up" the Fifa chain of command. Blazer has cooperated with them. Others now indicted might too. And they may have some very interesting information to share, given their senior positions. Significantly, US prosecutors have hinted that more arrests are in the pipeline, suggesting there will be a drip-feed of bad news for Fifa for months to come.
我们只需等到时势更加明朗些的时候。一位熟悉情况的消息人士告诉笔者，美国准备"按照自己的方式"来做好国际足协管理层的工作。Blazer已经开始和他们合作，而其他人也有合作的迹象。鉴于他们的高层身份，估计他们还有更多爆炸性的消息。尤其重要的是，美国并没有曝光全部被捕的人员，这表明在接下来的几个月里FIFA的日子不会好过。
In the interim, the court of public opinion is sitting. Fifa is lampooned on social media. Major advertisers are nervous that their association with the World Cup is becoming toxic. If they show signs of pulling out, Blatter may lose support. As Blatter understands better than anyone, money talks. A nuclear option would see Uefa, the European governing body, make a unilateral declaration of independence, but few want this to happen.
在此期间，公众舆论有很大的作用。国际足联被社会媒体极力讽刺。广告商们担心世界杯的广告会对自己不利。而如果他们有退出的迹象，Blatter就可能失去支持。Blatter比任何人都了解，钱决定一切。一个饮鸩止渴的方法就是欧足联，使欧足联单方面宣布独立，但是没人愿意看到这种情况的发生。
Separately, Swiss prosecutors are also investigating the awarding of the Russia and Qatar World Cups. Given the way that the US is enthusiastically going about its inquiries, they will be under pressure to throw resources at their investigation. They may yet come up trumps. Blatter appears safe for now but he is wounded.
另外，瑞士检方也在调查俄罗斯和卡塔尔世界杯贿赂案。而迫于美国方面的压力，瑞士方面估计得提供他们得到的消息。他们目前可能还没有使出杀手锏，Blatter虽然目前是安全的，但已经伤了元气。
