评论
打印
Equity markets are off to a strong start, especially outside the US. This is in large part thanks to the market’s belief that bad news begets good news. Bad news is met with central bank policy easing, which keeps the asset reflation carousel going round. This is happening across Europe, Japan and China.
股票市场今年的开局很不错，尤其是美国以外的市场。部分原因在于，市场相信坏消息会引发好消息。对于坏消息，央行用放松货币政策来应对，这让资产再膨胀的螺旋保持着转动。这就是欧洲、日本和中国正在上演的情形。
While the Federal Reserve is readying for the lift-off of policy rates, the amount of liquidity being provided by central banks in aggregate should keep equity markets buoyant this year. Markets outside the US are doing the heavy lifting because of that synchronous central bank policy boost. Local equity market returns in Europe, Japan and China need to be looked at through that lens for context. If there was ever a moment to showcase why it is important to be a global investor, this is the year.
尽管美联储(Fed)正为上调政策利率做准备，但今年各国央行提供的流动性总量应该能使股市保持上涨态势。由于多家央行同时实施政策刺激，美国以外的市场受到强力拉升。要搞清欧洲、日本和中国当地股市回报的背景，必须透过这层棱镜来看。如果说有某个时刻能突显出作一名全球投资者的重要性，那么非今年莫属。
The US economy is past the recovery phase, while Europe and Japan are not. China is transforming the very structure of its domestic economy, and slowing in the process. In the US policy easing came at a point where interest rates had room to move lower and risk assets had valuations that could be considered low.
美国经济正在经历复苏阶段，欧洲和日本则不然。中国正在经历国内经济结构转型，经济增长则在这一过程中出现放缓。美国当初开始放松货币政策时，利率仍有下调空间，风险资产的估值可被认为处于低位。
Cheap is neither good nor bad; it simply reflects a cloudy outlook — but low valuations allow room for error. That is not the case today across global markets. Interest rates are already low and equity markets are no longer cheap.
便宜既说不上好也说不上坏；它只是反映了一种暗淡的前景——但低估值给犯错留出了余地。如今，全球各个市场并不是这种情况。利率已然处于低位，股票也不再便宜。
Low interest rates are one thing, but negative interest rates are something else entirely. Government bond yields are the risk-free rate that price all risk assets, and negative interest rates will continue to incite asset reflation. But how should an investor think about stock versus bond valuations or corporate credit versus government bond yields with sovereign bonds trading with negative interest rates? The answer is not that valuations don’t matter. They do.
低利率是一回事，负利率则是完全不同的另一回事。国债收益率是无风险利率，该利率确定了所有风险资产的价格，而负利率将继续助长资产再膨胀。但在主权债券利率为负时，投资者应如何看待股票相对债券的估值、或公司信贷相对国债的收益率呢？答案并不是估值不重要。估值很重要。
Whether we are looking at equity multiples or credit spreads, the perception of valuation is anchored on abnormally low government bond yields. Equity and credit markets are no longer cheap. Government bond markets, particularly in Europe, are extended. That is not a negative view about the outlook.
无论我们是考察股票估值倍数还是信贷息差，我们对估值的看法都是基于低得异乎寻常的国债收益率。股票和信贷市场已不再便宜。国债市场、尤其是欧洲的国债市场已成强弩之末。这并不是对前景的悲观看法。
We are not believers in the more extreme interpretations of secular stagnation or deflation. But growth and interest rates are structurally staying lower for longer. That is an observation about return expectations as well. They need to be lowered. While the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have electrified their policy stimulus through quantitative easing, the Fed is about to do the opposite. They are reflectively trying to return to normal — which for the Fed simply means lifting policy rates off zero. We continue to believe it is not a matter of if, but when and by how much, the Fed raises rates.
我们并非长期停滞或通缩等更极端解读的信徒。但是，经济增长和利率将结构性地在低位停留更长时间。这一看法也适用于投资回报预期。人们需要调低回报预期。欧洲央行(ECB)和日本央行(BoJ)通过量化宽松大幅加大了政策刺激力度，美联储则即将采取相反的举措。他们在深思熟虑后都在尝试回归常态——对美联储而言，这就意味着将政策利率从近零水平提高。我们仍然认为，问题不是美联储会不会加息，而是何时加、加多少。
There is a big difference between direction and pace. The Fed understands too-much too-fast dollar strength will weigh further on growth. Less is more, both on Fed tightening and the pace of dollar appreciation ahead.
方向和步伐之间存在巨大的差别。美联储明白，美元过多、过快升值将进一步拖累经济增长。对未来美联储收紧政策的速度以及美元升值的速度而言，少就是多。
The wild card for the Fed is labour market recovery and wage inflation. For the moment that gives the Fed room to move gradually in raising policy rates. It is going to be difficult for 10-year US Treasury yields to get much above 2.25-2.5 per cent this year, especially with European yields so low. US government bonds look cheap versuseverything else — and they are denominated in the currency of choice, the US dollar. To be clear, that is a relative-value argument.
美联储面临的不确定因素是劳动力市场复苏和工资上涨。目前而言，这一因素给了美联储更为缓慢地提高政策利率的空间。今年，10年期美国国债收益率将很难显著高于2.25%至2.5%，特别是在欧洲国债收益率如此之低的情况下。美国国债看起来比其他任何资产都便宜——而且这些债券是以目前最受追捧的货币美元计价的。必须明确，这一看法是基于相对价值。
It seems there will be a few months ahead where trading will be active, but broad markets can stay relatively rangebound until there is something to fasten on to for direction. Every US economic data release is going to be scrutinised by the market looking for an anchor for Fed lift-off. That means noisy headlines and feedback. Where interest rates and the dollar go from here is particularly important — which will keep all eyes and ears on the Fed.
看上去，接下来有几个月交易似乎会活跃起来，但市场整体上可能相对来说会继续作区间波动，直到抓住某个题材找出方向。美国发布的每项经济数据都将受到市场的密切关注，以找出美联储加息的线索。这意味着会有充满噪音的报道和反馈。利率和美元接下来的走向尤其重要——市场将密切关注美联储的举动。
The US market has priced in a lot of negative news as international equity markets have continued to move higher. A little consolidation seems in order. The second quarter looks like it might offer turbulence — not because the landscape is worse than expected, but because markets are looking through a great deal of noise, about which they need clarity. For where we are in the investment cycle, return expectations need to be managed lower; especially as equity markets drive investor returns higher.
在国际股票市场继续上涨之际，美国股市已经消化了大量负面消息。小幅调整似乎是适当的。今年第二季度，美国市场或许会发生动荡——不是因为现实逊于预期，而是因为市场开始透过大量的噪音看问题，它们需要去除这些噪音。就我们目前在投资周期中所处的阶段而言，需要想办法调低回报预期，尤其是在股市把投资者的回报推高之时。
