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The world’s big banks would like to draw a line under their recent troubles.
全球的大银行肯定希望它们近来遇到的麻烦能到此为止。
The losses from the financial crisis, the costs of regulatory change and the fines from mis-selling and market manipulation scandals appear largely in the past.
过去一段时间里，我们频频看到它们因金融危机而蒙受损失，因监管改革而平添成本，因不当销售和市场操纵丑闻而被处以罚款。
For once, another sector is suffering a series of blows. Within a matter of months, the falling oil price has wiped as much as 25 per cent off the market values of the oil majors. But might the bankers be smiling too soon? Could the oil market turmoil become the banks’ next nightmare?
现在，另一个行业正破天荒地承受着一系列打击。短短几个月内，不断下跌的石油价格已将石油巨头的市值抹去最多25%。不过，银行家们是否笑得太早了？石油市场的动荡是否会成为银行业的下一个噩梦？
Last month, there was a hint of what might be around the corner, when it emerged that Wells Fargo and Barclays had exposure to big potential losses on an oil loan — specifically, $850m of funding granted earlier in the year to back the merger of US oil groups Sabine and Forest.
上个月出了一件事，预示着接下来可能会发生什么。当时，有消息称，富国银行(Wells Fargo)和巴克莱(Barclays)有可能因一笔石油贷款而蒙受重大损失——具体来说，就是今年早些时候答应发放的一笔8.5亿美元的资金，用来为两家美国石油企业Sabine与Forest合并提供融资。
Attempts to syndicate the loan had failed amid a falling oil price. The banks, which led the fundraising, were left holding mark-to-market losses estimated at as much as 40 per cent.
在油价不断下滑的情况下，组建银团来安排这笔贷款的尝试失败了。这两家牵头提供融资的银行，只能独自承担按市值计价的亏损，亏损率估计高达40%。
Since then, the oil price collapse has only worsened. Last week, Brent crude hit a new five-year low of barely $60. That is nearly 50 per cent down on its summertime peak. The slight rally on Monday — triggered by the closure of two Libyan terminals — reversed by the end of the day.
自那之后，油价下跌的情况越来越糟。上周，布伦特(Brent)原油价格创下五年新低，也就每桶60美元多一点。这个价格较今夏的峰值低将近50%。周一，利比亚两个原油码头关闭引发油价轻微反弹，但这波反弹到当日收盘时已被逆转。
The trend is great news for consumers. And the big losers are equally obvious — namely, the oil majors. Less clear, but potentially more noxious, is the impact on the banks that have supported the industry’s breakneck expansion over the past few years.
油价的下滑趋势对消费者来说是个好消息，而大输家也是明摆着的——就是那些石油巨头。不那么明显但可能受害更深的输家，是那些支撑石油业在过去几年实现惊人扩张的银行。
That Sabine-Forest financing was just one of many. Oil and gas financing has spiralled over the past couple of years, dominating the riskier end of the bond market. According to data compiled by Barclays, energy bonds now make up nearly 16 per cent of the $1.3tn junk bond market — more than three-times their proportion 10 years ago. Nearly 45 per cent of this year’s non-investment grade syndicated loans have been in oil and gas.
Sabine-Forest合并案的融资只是诸多此类例子之一。过去几年，油气行业的融资项目呈螺旋式增长，在债券市场风险较高的一端占据主导地位。巴克莱编制的数据显示，能源债如今在垃圾债券市场（总值1.3万亿美元）的占比接近16%，是10年前占比的3倍还多。今年的非投资级银团贷款，将近45%是发放给油气行业的。
But investor demand has not matched the level of deals, with a troubling result: as much as half of the outstanding financing from the past couple of years may be stuck on banks’ books, analysts say.
但投资者的需求与交易数量不相匹配，这造成了一个令人不安的结果：分析师称，过去几年未了结的融资，可能有高达一半停留在银行的账目上。
New research from AllianceBernstein highlights the extent of US banks’ exposure. Wells Fargo tops the list.
联博(AllianceBernstein)所做的新研究突显出了美国银行业的风险敞口之大。富国银行位列榜首。
It participated in $37bn of non-investment grade loans from 2012 to 2014. Only JPMorgan, with $31.7bn of deals, comes close.
该行在2012年至2014年间参与了总额为370亿美元的非投资级贷款，接近这一水平的只有摩根大通(JPMorgan)，后者参与了总额为317亿美元的非投资级贷款。
Barclays and fellow UK banks HSBC and Royal Bank of Scotland are relatively low in the pecking order, with between $11bn and $12bn apiece. In between are five other North American lenders and Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ.
巴克莱及总部同在英国的汇丰(HSBC)和苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)在榜单上排名相对靠后，各自参与的非投资级贷款总额在110亿至120亿美元之间。夹在上述两个集团中间的是另外5家北美银行以及日本的三菱东京UFJ银行(Mitsubishi UFJ)。
There is a sanguine view of the oil price slump — that this is just how markets behave and that the price will recover in time.
对于油价暴跌，还有一个乐观的看法，即认为这就是市场的运行模式、油价最终会反弹回来。
But, to many, $60 oil looks like it is here to stay. Lower demand will persist for years, thanks to the weakening outlook for China and Europe, while supply has been expanded by booming US shale production and stubbornly high Opec production. If that view is right, there is a stark parallel with the US property market collapse that heralded the start of the 2008 global financial crisis — and upended banks along the way. Those lenders with oil exposure on their books may well be stuck with big losses.
但在很多人看来，油价似乎会停留在每桶60美元的水平。由于中国和欧洲的增长前景变糟，需求减少的状况将持续数年，而美国页岩油产量的迅速提高以及石油输出国组织(Opec)产量的居高不下已造成供应增加。如果这个观点是正确的，那么现在的形势与美国房地产市场的崩盘极为相似，那次崩盘为2008年全球金融危机拉开了序幕，并在这一过程中重创银行业。那些账目上有石油风险敞口的银行，很可能会遭受巨大损失。
Yet the banks with the biggest stakes in this high-risk market are among the most prized by investors.
不过，在这个高风险市场拥有最大敞口的那些银行，却也在最受投资者追捧的银行之列。
Wells Fargo is one of the most highly valued banks in the world, enjoying a share price rise of 23 per cent this year. It is tempting to think that — like the other darlings of the post-crisis banking market, notably Standard Chartered and BNP Paribas — it is overdue a fall from grace. If Wells Fargo’s exposure was in line with the estimated industry average, that would imply a potential loss of about $8bn.
富国银行是全球最受投资者追捧的银行之一，其股价今年累计上涨23%。人们不禁会想，就像后危机时代银行业市场的其他宠儿、特别是渣打银行(Standard Chartered)和法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)一样，富国银行早就该失宠了。如果富国银行的风险敞口与人们估计的行业平均值一致，那将意味着它可能会遭受80亿美元左右的损失。
On the other hand, Wells has become such a machine of profitability that given its current earnings growth the bank could recover such a sum within five months. Other banks might not be so lucky.
不过，富国银行已成长为一个十足的赚钱机器，考虑到其目前的盈利增速，它可以在5个月内弥补这笔损失。其他银行可能就不会这么幸运了。
So the latest muscle-flexing from regulators is timely. In the US, the Federal Reserve is further toughening the banks’ required capital ratios. Last week, it exposed a $22bn capital shortfall at JPMorgan alone. On Tuesday, the Bank of England is due to report back on UK bank stress test results. A simultaneous stability report from the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee is expected to zero in on the oil price, among other issues.
因此，监管机构最新一次发威的时间可谓恰到好处。在美国，美联储(Fed)正在进一步收紧银行的资本充足率要求。上周它宣布，仅摩根大通一家银行就存在220亿美元的资本金缺口。周二，英国央行(BoE)公布了英国银行业压力测试结果，其金融政策委员会(FPC)还公布了金融稳定报告，针对油价下跌发出警告，并谈到了其他问题。
It isn’t time for banks to draw that line just yet.
现在还没到给银行业的麻烦画上句号的时候。
