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HONG KONG — A tremendous rally in China’s stock markets showed its first hint of weakening on Tuesday, with the main Shanghai share index dropping more than 5 percent.
香港——周二，中国股市的火爆势头第一次表现出了疲软的迹象，沪指跌幅超过5%。
Despite signs in China of slowing economic growth and a slumping property market, the mainland’s stock markets have been resurgent in recent months, with the Shanghai Composite Index up almost 50 percent since July. On Monday, the index pushed above the 3,000-point level for the first time since early 2010.
尽管中国经济呈现增速放缓，房地产市场也陷入低靡，但近几个月来，大陆股市强劲反弹，上证综合指数较7月暴涨了50%。周一，股指突破3000点大关，这还是2010年以来第一次。
But the rally has been largely fueled by individual retail investors, who have been piling into the market and increasingly resorting to margin financing, or short-term borrowing, to purchase shares — meaning that the bull market run could unravel in equally rapid fashion.
但这次股市大回暖基本是个体散户带动的，他们大举入市，很多人还借助非主流融资手段或短期贷款炒股。这意味着本次牛市很可能会同样突然地瓦解。
On Tuesday, the Shanghai index showed its first signs of stress, plunging in the afternoon trading session to close 5.4 percent lower, at 2,856.27 points. The benchmark index for the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also fell, closing 4.2 percent lower.
周二，沪指表现出第一个乏力的迹象，下午开始下跌，以2856.27点报收，下降5.4%。深圳证券交易所的基准指数也下跌，收盘时跌幅达4.2%。
Still, analysts were reluctant to describe Tuesday’s sell-off as an end to the rally, since broad sentiment among Chinese investors remained positive toward share markets, given the relative weak performance of other popular investments, like residential properties.
但分析师仍持谨慎态度，不愿轻易断言周二的抛售代表本轮牛市终结。鉴于其他常见投资方式如住房市场仍然相对低靡，中国投资人对股市的普遍情绪依然乐观。
“Although the recent rise in leverage sharply heightens the risk of extreme volatility, with a near-term 10 percent correction in the Shanghai market perfectly possible — even likely — there are good reasons to believe that Chinese equities have now moved into a new, more bullish phase,” Joyce Poon, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, a financial research company, wrote on Tuesday in a research note.
“虽然杠杆率的近期上升大大加剧了极端波动的风险，上海股市完全有可能出现10％的近期修正，甚至也许不可避免，但有充分的理由认为，中国股市现在已经进入了一个新的、更牛市阶段，“经济研究公司龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics)分析师潘启思周二在一份研究简报中写道。
“If the stock market’s credit line is not yet maxed out, the question for investors is whether Beijing is likely to pull the plug and kill the party,” Ms. Poon wrote. She cited the surprise interest rate cut last month by the Chinese central bank as an example, saying that a monetary policy that supports growth also augurs well for equity markets.
“如果股市的信贷额度尚未达到饱和，对投资者来说，问题是北京是否有可能采取行动，制止股市疯狂，”潘启思写道。她以中国央行上个月出人意料的降息为例表示，支持增长的货币政策也预示着股市的好前景。
“While the authorities are undoubtedly concerned at the rapidity with which leverage has built up,” she wrote, “there is no doubt that they would welcome a sustainable bull market in stocks as positive for sentiment and for growth.”
她写道，“虽然当局无疑会关注杠杆率积累的增长速度之快，但毫无疑问，他们会欢迎一个可持续的股票牛市，这对情绪和经济增长有正面作用。”
While major stock markets around the world have soared to post-financial crisis highs in the last year, China’s markets had remained languid. Instead, Chinese investors, who are largely confined to domestic investments because of the country’s currency controls, had opted to park their money in the property market or alternative instruments like high-yielding wealth management products. But real estate prices have been falling across the country in recent months, and the returns on wealth management products have also declined.
尽管全球主要股市去年都涨到了金融危机后的高位，但中国的市场一直保持着无精打采的样子。因此，由于受国家货币控制的限制而主要在国内投资的中国投资者，选择了把钱投在房地产、或像高收益理财产品那样的替代投资上。但是，全国的房地产价格近几个月来一直在下降，理财产品的回报率也有所下降。
Retail investors in China opened 370,000 stock trading accounts last month, the highest monthly total in more than three years. And many are buying shares on credit. Since July, the amount of share purchases in Shanghai and Shenzhen that used margin financing more than doubled, rising to more than 800 billion renminbi, or $130 billion, by the end of last week.
中国的散户投资者上个月新开了37万个股票交易账户，创下三年多来的月度总高。而且许多人用信贷来购买股票。自7月以来，在上海和深圳市场用保证金购买股票的额度增长了一倍多，截至上周末，已达到8000多亿元人民币，约合1300亿美元。
The result has been a sharp run-up in stock prices. In the last six months, the Shanghai index has ranked as the world’s best performing share index. Before the sell-off on Tuesday, it had risen 25 percent in the last month alone.
其结果是股票价格的大幅上扬。在过去的六个月中，上证指数已成为全球表现最好的股票指数。在周二抛售之前，仅在过去的一个月中，就上涨了25％。
While welcoming signs of life in the country’s stock markets, Chinese officials have grown wary in recent weeks of the rising levels of debt that have fueled the rally, and they have cautioned investors against speculation.
中国官员在欢迎国内股市出现活力迹象的同时，也在最近几周对助长股市反弹的不断上升的债务水平表示了更多的担忧，他们已警告投资者不要投机。
Deng Ge, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said regulators had noted a rise in market manipulation and other illegal trading activities. “We will strengthen market supervision and resolutely crack down to safeguard normal market order and protect the legal rights of investors,” Mr. Deng said in a statement on the regulator’s website on Friday.
中国证券监督管理委员会发言人邓戈表示，监管部门已经注意到股价操纵等违法违规活动的增加。在证监会网站上周五的一份声明中，邓戈说，“我会将加强市场监管，坚决予以打击，切实维护市场正常秩序，保护投资者合法权益。”
“I hope the majority of investors, especially small investors, will invest rationally, respect and revere the market, and remember that stocks have risks,” he said. “Don’t be misled or blindly follow speculators.”
他说，“希望广大投资者特别是中小投资者理性投资，尊重市场、敬畏市场，牢记股市有风险，不要盲目跟风炒作。”
