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Gloomy economic news and the wild swings of the stock market may be getting you down. But at least you can count on this: We’ve entered the sweet spot of the iPhone cycle.
糟糕的经济新闻和股市的剧烈波动可能会让你感到失望。但至少有一件事可以指望：我们已经进入了iPhone产品周期中的最佳时刻。
Since Sept. 19, when the iPhone 6 and its larger sibling, the iPhone 6 Plus, went on sale, consumers have been ordering the gadgets faster than Apple can deliver them. The ripple effects are being felt throughout the economy — and they have been moving the stock market.
自从9月19日，iPhone 6和尺寸较大的iPhone 6 Plus上市以来，消费者下单订购的速度就超出了苹果公司(Apple)供货的速度。它们的影响波及了整个经济，甚至影响了股市。
“The iPhone is having a measurable impact,” said Michael Feroli, the chief United States economist for JPMorgan Chase. “It’s a little gadget, but it costs a lot and it seems that everybody has one. When you do the multiplication, it’s going to matter.” He estimates that iPhone sales are adding one-quarter to one-third of a percentage point to the annualized growth rate of the gross domestic product.
“iPhone的影响是显著的，”摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的首席美国经济师迈克尔·费罗利(Michael Feroli)说。“这个设备虽然小，但是价格很贵，而且似乎人人都有一部。乘一下就知道这是多大一笔收入了。”他估计，iPhone的销售额能将国内生产总值(GDP)的年化增长率提高四分之一到三分之一个百分点。
You may not think of the iPhone as a financial powerhouse. After all, it’s just a consumer good — albeit a highly functional, high-end one that you can carry in your pocket or your purse. Sales typically surge every two years when, as now, Apple does a major iPhone upgrade. You may have the warm and personal relationship with the iPhone that Timothy D. Cook, Apple’s chief executive, described on Monday to Wall Street analysts during a conference call. Apple’s next three months will be “incredibly strong,” he said. And he spoke enthusiastically about the principal reason for this performance: “These iPhones are the best we have ever created and customers absolutely love them.”
你可能不会觉得iPhone能推动金融市场。毕竟，它只是一个消费品——尽管它是一款功能强大、可以装在口袋或手包里的高端设备。通常每过两年，当苹果推出iPhone重大升级时，比如现在，就会出现一次销售额激增。你或许与iPhone之间存在一种温馨的私人关系，就像苹果首席执行官蒂莫西·D·库克(Timothy D. Cook)在周一的电话会议上对华尔街分析师所说的那样。苹果的表现在未来三个月里会“异常强劲”，他说。他热情洋溢地谈到了这种状况的主要原因：“新的iPhone，是我们迄今为止推出的最好机型，顾客绝对喜欢。”
Whether you love them or not, though, it’s a good moment to recognize their significance as a financial force.
但无论你是不是喜欢，现在都应该承认iPhone对于金融市场是一支重要的力量。
The iPhone’s financial impact starts, of course, with Apple, which is reaping enormous profit from it. As the company disclosed in data embedded in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday, it has been selling a broad mix of iPhone models at an average price of $603.
iPhone对金融的影响当然从苹果开始，该公司从中赚取了巨额利润。苹果本周一提交给证券交易委员会(Securities and Exchange Commission)的一份文件显示，它销售各款iPhone的均价是603美元（约合3690元人民币）。
That’s not remotely close to the “starting price of $199” that Apple advertises, as I wrote last month. The full price is embedded in service agreements that many customers in the United States reach with phone carriers. And many of those carriers are stating that full price quite openly. The real starting price for a new, basic iPhone is $649, and models with more memory and bigger screens cost much more.
这和苹果公司“199美元起售”的广告相差悬远，我上个月已经写过这个话题。手机的全价包含在与手机运营商签订的套餐服务协议中。很多运营商都相当公开地报出了手机的全价，新的基本款iPhone真正的起价是649美元，存储空间和屏幕更大的机型价格还要贵很多。
This price structure is lucrative for Apple. “The cost of building a basic phone has stayed at about $200 for years,” said Andrew Rassweiler, senior director for cost benchmarking services, at IHS Technology.
这种价格结构为苹果带来了丰厚利润。“多年来，基本款iPhone的成本一直保持在200美元左右，”安德鲁·拉斯维勒(Andrew Rassweiler)说。他是研究机构IHS科技(IHS Technology)负责成本基准比较的高级总监。
That estimate doesn’t include many expenses, like research and marketing costs. But it’s a rough guidepost, and it helps explain how, as Apple disclosed in a court filing two years ago, its profit margins for the iPhone are roughly double those for iPads, which tend to be priced more cheaply.
以上估计数值没有包含许多开销，比如研发和营销成本。但它可以作为一个粗略的标准，帮助解释为什么像苹果两年前在一份法庭文件中披露的那样，iPhone的利润率差不多是iPad的两倍。iPad的定价往往要低于iPhone。
Toni Sacconaghi, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein, says the gross profit margin for the iPhone is close to 50 percent. Because the iPhone is Apple’s most popular product — with more than 39 million sold in the last quarter — it accounts for a disproportionately large percentage of Apple’s overall profit, somewhere between 60 and 70 percent, Mr. Sacconaghi said.
桑福德·伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)的分析师托尼·萨克纳吉(Toni Sacconaghi)说，iPhone的毛利率接近50%。他说，由于iPhone是苹果公司最受欢迎的产品——上季度销量超过3900万部，它在苹果总利润中的比重格外大，在60%到70%之间。
“Apple is now so big that it takes a lot to make it grow appreciably,” Mr. Sacconaghi said. It’s producing an impressive interrelated ecosystem of products and services, including its forthcoming digital watches, its new digital payment system, its revived Mac line, refreshed iPads and new software operating systems. Even if all of its ventures succeed, none are likely in the next year or two to rival the financial impact of the iPhone. “The iPhone is the core of Apple right now,” he said.
“苹果现在已经如此庞大，要想大幅成长，需要付出极大的努力，”萨克纳吉说。苹果正在创造一个不同凡响的生态系统，它由相互关联的产品和服务组成，包括即将推出的智能手表、新的数字支付系统、经过升级的Mac产品线、新版iPad，以及新的软件操作系统。即使上述项目都大获成功，在未来一两年里，它们产生的金融影响，也不可能与iPhone匹敌。他说，“iPhone目前是苹果的核心。”
In a sense, it’s the core of the stock market as well. Apple is the biggest company, by market capitalization, in the world. Apple accounts for about 3.5 percent of the weighting of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. And, through Thursday, because its stock has performed magnificently while the overall market has not, Apple accounted for 18 percent of the entire rise of the S.&P. 500 index this year, according to calculations by Paul Hickey, co-founder of the Bespoke Investment Group. And the engine driving Apple shares is the iPhone.
在一定意义上，iPhone也是股市的核心。苹果是世界上市值最大的公司。苹果在标准普尔500指数(Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index)中的权重为3.5%左右。按照贝斯波克投资集团(Bespoke Investment Group)联合创始人保罗·希基(Paul Hickey)的计算，截至周四，由于苹果的股票表现不俗，而股市整体表现不佳，在标普500指数今年的涨幅中，18%是由苹果推动的。而iPhone则是助推苹果股价的引擎。
“The market is obviously counting on another strong sales performance for the new iPhone,” he said. So far, it’s getting that performance. And, he said, Apple’s invigorating effect is likely to continue.
“市场显然认为新的iPhone销售业绩仍会很强劲，”他说。迄今为止，它的确接近这种表现。而且他说，苹果对股市的刺激效果很可能会持续下去。
Because the iPhone is made mainly overseas and sold worldwide, it is stimulating the economy in other regions, particular in East Asia, Mr. Feroli observed, and it keeps a substantial amount of its cash abroad. Such factors make it harder to assess the company’s impact domestically.
费罗利说，由于iPhone主要在海外生产，而且在全球销售，它还刺激着其他地区的经济，尤其是东亚。此外，苹果还把大量现金留在海外。综合这些因素，苹果在美国国内的影响就更加难以评估。
“It’s not like G.M. having a great quarter,” Mr. Feroli said. “It doesn’t translate directly into employment in the United States. It’s a more complex world today, and, in that sense, Apple is representative of that world.”
“这与通用汽车创造了很好的季度业绩不是一回事，”费罗利说。“它不会直接转化成美国的就业岗位。世界已经变得更加复杂，从这种意义上讲，苹果就是这个世界的代表。”
Apple, though, is having a powerful impact in the United States. Last month, for example, electronic and consumer appliance store sales jumped 3.4 percent while clothing sales fell 1.2 percent, according to Commerce Department figures. “People are buying iPhones, partly as a status symbol,” Mr. Feroli said. “They’re not buying as much clothing.”
不过，苹果仍然对美国产生了巨大的影响。例如，商务部的数据显示，上个月，电子产品和家电的销售增长了3.4%，而服装销售下降了1.2%。“人们购买iPhone，一定程度上是把它当做身份的象征，”费罗利说，“所以他们减少了服装的购买。”
Even people who don’t buy iPhones and don’t own Apple shares have a stake in the company. I don’t own any Apple stock, for example, but I do have a stake indirectly through my 401(k) account. That’s because mutual funds in my portfolio own Apple shares as their biggest holdings. Nearly every pension fund holds some stock, and these days, there’s a good chance the biggest holding is Apple. And the most important financial lever at Apple is the iPhone.
即使没买iPhone也没有苹果股票的人，也与这家公司利益攸关。例如，我就没有苹果的股票，但却通过401(k)账户与苹果有间接的利益关系。这是因为我的投资组合里的共同基金持有苹果股票，而且是其资产中的最大部分。几乎每支养老基金都持有一些股票，现如今，它们持有的可能大部分是苹果股票。而在苹果公司，最重要的金融杠杆就是iPhone。
All of that helps explain why Apple is such a formidable force, especially at this stage in its product cycle. And as the holiday shopping season approaches, and iPhones keep flying off the shelves, Apple may well keep moving the world.
以上种种都解释了为什么苹果有如此强大的力量，尤其是在其产品周期中的当前阶段。随着假日销售季的临近，以及iPhone的火爆销售，苹果完全可以继续改变我们的世界。
