评论
打印
Fifteen years of deflationary conditions were a disaster for Japan. From the mid-1990s its economy shrank in cash terms, wrecking the public finances. Net government debt ballooned to more than 130 per cent of gross domestic product. Having previously dazzled its rivals during years of fast growth, Japan gradually transformed from economic exemplar to cautionary tale.
连续十五年陷入通缩对日本来说是一场灾难。从上世纪90年代中期开始，以货币计量的日本经济持续萎缩，这让公共财政难以为继。政府净负债与国内生产总值(GDP)之比急剧膨胀至130%。日本曾在早年的快速增长期间让竞争对手惊叹不已，但现在则逐渐从经济增长标杆转变为一个令人警醒的故事。
When Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, took office in December 2012 he made clear his intention to break Japan’s deflation. The Bank of Japan, under a new governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, was ordered to pursue a goal of 2 per cent inflation. But after impressive early progress, the economy slowed, partly dragged down by an increase in sales taxes. Voices can now be heard doubting whether Mr Kuroda can succeed in putting the country back on to a path of rising prices
当日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在2012年12月上台的时候，他明确表示打算结束日本的通缩。新行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)领导的日本央行(BoJ)被要求设定2%的通胀目标。但在最初取得明显进展之后，日本经济增长放缓，这在一定程度上受到消费税上调的拖累。现在有人表示怀疑，黑田东彦能否成功让日本重新回到通胀的轨道上来。
On Friday Mr Kuroda emphatically refuted these doubts by increasing his purchases of government bonds from Y60tn-Y70tn annually to Y80tn. In response, Japanese stocks rose 5 per cent, the yen fell 2 per cent, and even the US stock market hit a record high.
上周五，黑田东彦断然驳斥了这些怀疑，他将每年购买政府债券的规模从60万亿至70万亿日元提高至80万亿日元。日本股市应声大涨5%，日元则暴跌2%，甚至美国股市也创出历史新高。
While central bankers are seldom encouraged to shock the market, Mr Kuroda’s stance should be applauded. Deflation is rightly described as a trap. When consumers and businesses expect lower prices they postpone spending, expecting their cash to go further if hoarded. This drains demand from the economy. Weaker prices acquire a self-fulfilling dynamic. Had Mr Kuroda played down his inflation target, it would have demonstrated that he could be beaten by wavering market confidence.
尽管央行行长们很少被鼓励对市场造成冲击，但我们应该为黑田东彦的立场欢呼。将通缩描述为一种陷阱是正确的。当消费者和企业预计价格下降时，他们会延迟支出，寄望于囤积的现金将来会更值钱。这从经济中抽走了需求。价格下跌获得了一种自我实现的动能。假如黑田东彦淡化其通胀目标，那就会表明，他可能被犹豫不决的市场信心击败了。
This is all the more important because management of expectations is critical to his task. Exports contribute just 15 per cent to Japanese GDP, and corporate Japan gains little from a weaker yen, since much of its operations and raw materials are overseas. Nor is there much to be gained from lower interest rates on bonds that already yield less than 1 per cent. Neither of these channels can match the potential benefits that would arise from breaking Japan out of its deflationary mindset.
这格外重要，因为管理预期对他的使命至为关键。出口仅占到日本GDP的15%，日本企业几乎没有从日元下跌中受益，因为许多业务和原材料都在海外。债券利率下降（目前不到1%）也没有带来多大好处。这些渠道都比不上日本摆脱通缩心态后产生的潜在收益。
Restoring inflation is only one of the “three arrows” of Mr Abe’s strategy to raise Japan’s growth rate. The prime minister still needs to shake up the overly rigid Japanese labour market, push forward trade agreements and encourage companies to spend their hoards of cash. But the rest of “Abenomics” will struggle if Mr Kuroda’s arrow misses its target. It is easier to encourage new workers into the labour market when wages are rising. The strongest reason for a company to invest is an expectation of rising sales. In the immediate future there needs to be support for economic demand in order to counter a further rise in the sales tax. All of these are arguments for Mr Kuroda to do more, not less.
恢复通胀只是安倍推动日本增长战略的“三支箭”之一。安倍仍需要撼动日本过分僵化的劳动力市场，推动缔结贸易协议并鼓励企业支出它们囤积的现金。但如果黑田东彦的箭没有射中目标，“安倍经济学”的其他部分就难以成功。当薪资上涨时，就会更容易鼓励新的劳动者进入劳动力市场。一家公司进行投资的最有力理由是预计销售将会上升。日本在短期内有必要支撑经济需求以抵消消费税进一步上涨的影响。所有这些都是黑田东彦增加、而非减少行动的理由。
The close vote in favour of Mr Kuroda’s latest action indicates growing concerns in the BoJ at the increasing use of quantitative easing. But the consequences of a failure to sustain positive inflation are far more serious. As its society ages and savers turn into spenders, the Japanese state has little prospect of managing its high levels of debt without higher nominal growth.
日本央行以微弱优势通过了黑田东彦的最新举措，这表明该行对加大量化宽松日益感到不安。但如果不能将通胀维持在正值水平，后果将会严重得多。随着日本社会老龄化和储户开始支出，如果名义增长没有上升，日本政府管理巨额债务的可能性微乎其微。
The market may have been shocked by the BoJ announcement, but it should not have been. Central bank credibility is about carrying through what was promised. Mr Kuroda has vowed to sustain a moderate level of inflation. Subdued sentiment built up over decades was never going to be dispelled in months. Should expectations of inflation remain weak Mr Kuroda’s task is simple: he has to do more.
市场可能受到日本央行声明的冲击，但它不应如此。央行信誉与能否履行承诺有关。黑田东彦已经誓言要维持温和的通胀水平，但几十年来累积的低迷情绪绝不会在几个月里消散。如果通胀预期依然疲弱，黑田东彦的任务就很简单：他不得不出台更多的举措。
