评论
打印
WASHINGTON — In a series of sweeping campaigns to revive the American economy, the Federal Reserve has spent much of the last six years purchasing trillions of dollars of bonds. Now it is done.
华盛顿——在一系列推动美国经济复苏的大手笔动作中，美联储(Federal Reserve)过去六年中的大量时间，都用在了购买价值数万亿美元的债券上。如今，它要收手了。
The Fed said on Wednesday that the economy no longer needed quite so much help. It is the third time since 2008 the Fed has announced such a move, but this time officials and analysts say the decision is more likely to stick, marking an important milestone in the nation’s painfully slow recovery from the Great Recession.
美联储在周三表示，美国经济不再需要这么多帮助了。这是美联储自2008年以来第三次做出类似表态，但这一次，官员和分析人士称，这一决策更有可能实施下去。在美国从大衰退(Great Recession)中缓慢复苏的痛苦过程中，这将是一座重要的里程碑。
The central bank still plans to keep short-term interest rates near zero for a “considerable time,” it said in a statement after a two-day meeting of its policy-making committee. And it said it would replace maturing bonds to keep its holdings at about $4.5 trillion.
作为美国的中央银行，美联储在一份声明中表示，仍计划在“相当一段时间里”，将短期利率维持在接近零的水平。在发布该声明前，美联储负责决策的委员会举行了一次为期两天的会议。美联储还表示将置换即将到期的债券，从而将债券持有量保持在大约4.5万亿美元（约合27.5万亿元人民币）的水平。
The bond-buying campaign has helped to fuel one of the longest bull markets in American history. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has increased by 131 percent since the Fed started its first round of purchases in November 2008. The campaign has also helped to suppress borrowing costs. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury has declined from 2.96 percent to 2.32 percent over the same period, even as economic conditions have improved.
采购债券的行动帮助刺激了美国历史上持续时间最长的牛市之一。自美联储2008年11月开始第一轮购买行动以来，标准普尔500股票指数(Standard & Poor’s 500)上涨了131%。购买行动也帮助抑制了借贷成本。在同一时期，十年期基准国债的收益率从2.96%降至2.32%，尽管经济状况已有所改善。
The impact on the rest of the economy is much harder to assess. The Fed, and its supporters, say the purchases have held down the cost of mortgage loans and corporate debt, contributing to faster job growth. Other economists dismiss the purchases as inconsequential. And some say the Fed has exacerbated economic inequalities by helping to boost financial markets while the rest of the economy languishes.
评估这些操作对整体经济的影响，则要难得多。美联储及其支持者称，债券购买压低了抵押贷款的成本和企业债务，也推动就业实现了更快的增长。但其他一些经济学家则认为，债券购买的作用无关紧要。此外，还有一些人表示，美联储在其他经济领域低迷之际，帮助刺激金融市场的作法，加剧了经济不平等。
The dire predictions of the Fed’s critics, however, have clearly failed to materialize. Some Fed officials and economists warned that the bond purchases, often referred to by experts as quantitative easing, or QE, would devalue the dollar and drive up inflation. So far the opposite has happened.
但显然，指责美联储的人士做出的可怕预测并未成为现实。一些美联储官员和经济学家曾警告，通常被专家称作“量化宽松”（quantitative easing，简称QE）的债券购买行动，会导致美元贬值，抬高通货膨胀水平。但迄今为止，事实却正相反。
The American economy has outperformed other developed parts of the world, helping to strengthen the dollar, while inflation has remained so sluggish that the greater worry is now whether prices are rising too slowly.
美国经济的表现超越了世界其他发达国家，帮助美元走强，而通胀水平依然很低，以至于现在更令人担忧的问题是，物价的上涨是否太慢了。
Kim Schoenholtz, a professor of economics at New York University, said the Fed’s bond purchases were particularly effective and important in stabilizing the financial system and stimulating the broader economy in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. But he said the impact of the purchases had diminished as conditions improved, and that it now made sense to end the program.
纽约大学(New York University)经济学教授基姆·舍恩霍尔茨(Kim Schoenholtz)表示，在金融危机刚结束后，美联储购买债券的行动，对于稳定金融体系和刺激整体经济特别有效。但他表示随着情况的好转，债券购买的效果减弱了，并称现在结束该计划是合理的。
“I applaud the Fed’s willingness to be aggressive especially early on in the crisis and it has made sense for the Fed to run a very accommodative policy,” Mr. Schoenholtz said. “But we should not be surprised that monetary policy has diminishing returns.”
“我要称赞美联储，它愿意大胆行动，特别是在危机早期，而且美联储实行非常宽松的政策是合理的，”舍恩霍尔茨说。“但货币政策产生的回报正在减少，这一点我们不应该感到惊讶。”
Mr. Schoenholtz added that the Fed’s quick and strong response helped to explain why the Fed was nearer to achieving its economic objectives than the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan, both of which are now battling to avoid deflation. On Monday, the E.C.B. disclosed the first purchases in a planned campaign to buy private-sector assets, a kind of entry-level quantitative easing. But the amount the central bank bought, just 1.7 billion euros worth, was considered a drop in the bucket by analysts, and fueled speculation the E.C.B. will soon be forced to take larger steps.
舍恩霍尔茨接着表示，迅速而有力的应对，有助于解释为何与欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)和日本银行(Bank of Japan)相比，美联储距离实现经济目标更为接近。周一，欧洲央行公布了首批购买私营部门资产的计划，相当于初级的量化宽松。但欧洲央行购买的资产仅价值17亿欧元（约合130亿元人民币），分析人士认为只是沧海一粟，此举也加剧了外界的猜测，认为欧洲央行很快就会被迫采取更大规模的举措。
House Republicans regard the bond purchases as a form of reckless meddling, and they have passed legislation to constrain the Fed’s flexibility during future downturns. “I’m afraid the long-term legacy of the policy will reflect the harm it has done to our nation’s seniors, savers, and all Americans faced with greater uncertainty and the possibility of a QE-induced bubble,” Representative Randy Neugebauer, a Texas Republican, said Wednesday.
共和党众议员认为美联储的购债行动是一种草率的干预，他们已经通过了法案，限制美联储在未来经济下行时采取行动的灵活性。德克萨斯州共和党众议员兰迪·诺伊格鲍尔(Randy Neugebauer)周三说，“我担心，该政策的长期影响在于，它对老年人、储蓄者和所有面临较大不确定性的美国人所造成的伤害，以及可能由量化宽松引发的泡沫。”
Others, meanwhile, say the economy remains weak, the purchases remain an effective medicine, and the Fed is retreating prematurely. Narayana Kocherlakota, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, cast the sole dissenting vote Wednesday, arguing inflation was rising too slowly to stop buying bonds.
但与此同时，另外一些人却表示，目前的经济仍然乏力，债券购买仍然是一剂良药，美联储的撤出为时过早。明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)行长纳拉亚纳·柯薛拉柯塔(Narayana Kocherlakota)周三投了唯一的反对票。他主张，通胀水平仍然过低，因此不应该停止购买债券。
The Fed started buying bonds for the first time in modern times because it had run out of other options. Under Ben S. Bernanke, then the Fed’s chairman, the central bank cut its benchmark short-term interest rate to zero in December 2008, maxing out its primary means of influencing economic conditions. Mr. Bernanke had argued years earlier that central banks could further reduce borrowing costs by purchasing long-term bonds. The idea was that reducing the supply would force investors to accept lower interest rates from borrowers.
美联储在现代历史上首次开始债券购买，是因为它当时已经别无选择。2008年12月，在时任美联储主席本·S·伯南克(Ben S. Bernanke)的领导下，这家央行将短期基准利率降到了零，把它所拥有的影响经济环境的最主要手段用到了极限。几年前，伯南克曾表示，央行应该通过购买长期债券，进一步降低借贷成本。这背后的想法是，通过减少供应，使投资者不得不接受让借款者支付较低的利率。
Under Mr. Bernanke and then under his successor, Janet L. Yellen, the Fed proceeded to expand its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to $4.5 trillion from less than $1 trillion.
在伯南克及其继任者珍妮特·L·耶伦(Janet L. Yellen)的领导下，美联储不断增持国债和抵押贷款担保证券，从不到1万亿美元，增加到了4.5万亿美元。
Looking back on the results earlier this year, Mr. Bernanke, now a fellow at the Brookings Institution, quipped, “Well, the problem with Q.E. is it works in practice, but it doesn’t work in theory.”
回顾今年早些时候的经济数据，目前在布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)担任研究员的伯南克不无讽刺地说，“嗯，量化宽松的问题在于，它在实际应用中行得通，在理论上却行不通。”
The tapering of bond purchases has not shaken the conviction of investors that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates before the middle of next year.
逐渐减少购债规模并没有动摇投资者的一个想法，即美联储不太可能在明年中期之前提高利率。
Barbara J. Cummings, director of fixed income at Boston Private Wealth Management, said the low rates highlighted the relative impotence of Fed policy. “I really believe that rates will continue to stay low because I think that there are other factors that are larger than what the Fed was doing,” she said, citing concerns about Europe that are driving flows of money into Treasuries.
波士顿私人财富管理公司(Boston Private Wealth Management)固定收益总监芭芭拉·J·康明斯(Barbara J. Cummings)说，低利率显示出，美联储政策效果较为有限。她说，“我相信利率将继续保持在低位，因为我认为还有其他比美联储的政策更重要的因素。”她提到，在对欧洲经济的担忧之下，投资者将资金用于购买美国国债。
The Fed has not ruled a resumption of bond purchases. But the progress of the economic recovery makes that seem increasingly unlikely. Through September, employers this year have added an average of 227,000 jobs a month, and the unemployment rate has fallen faster than expected, to 5.9 percent. The Fed upgraded its appraisal of labor market conditions in its statement Wednesday, saying that “underutilization of labor market resources is gradually diminishing.” The Fed also sought to downplay the concerns about the slow pace of inflation, saying that the likelihood of persistently low inflation has actually diminished since earlier this year.
美联储并没有排除在未来恢复债券购买，不过经济复苏的进展让出现这种情况的可能性越来越小。今年截至9月，平均每月新增22.7万个就业岗位，失业率的下降速度超出预期，已降至5.9%。在周三的声明中，美联储对劳动力市场状况给出了更高的评价，称“劳动力市场资源未充分利用的状况正逐步缓解”。美联储还寻求弱化人们对通胀水平过低的担忧，称从今年早些时候开始，通胀长期处在低位的可能性已经降低。
When the Fed first hinted that this day was coming in the summer of 2013, investors panicked and markets convulsed. But the Fed avoided a repeat by loudly announcing a schedule for the retreat and then adhering to it with absolute fidelity. Carl R. Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust, said that he hoped the Fed would emulate the clarity of its retreat from bond-buying as it moved toward raising interest rates. “I do think this has been a success story,” he said. “I’m hoping that when the time comes to raise interest rates that they’ll do an equally clear job of foreshadowing that.”
2013年夏天，美联储首次暗示将减少购债时，投资者陷入恐慌，市场出现震荡。但美联储公开宣布了退出的时间表，并且严格恪守该计划，从而避免了市场波动的重演。北方信托(Northern Trust)首席经济师卡尔·R·坦嫩鲍姆(Carl R. Tannenbaum)说，他希望美联储在采取行动提高利率之时，可以像退出债券购买计划那样步骤清晰。“我认为这是一个成功的例子，”他说。“我希望他们在提高利率时，也同样能给出清晰的计划。”
But a voice from the past, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, warned Wednesday in New York that the next phase of the Fed’s retreat would not unfold so smoothly. Asked whether the Fed could avoid turmoil, Mr. Greenspan responded, “I don’t think it’s possible.”
但一个来自过去的声音——前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)——周三在纽约警告说，美联储退出计划的下一阶段，不会进行得那么顺利。在被问到美联储能否避免市场动荡时，格林斯潘回答说，“我认为那不可能。”
