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It is hardly surprising that global growth scares hit emerging markets more powerfully than developed markets. By the end of last week, share prices in developed markets had recovered most of their losses, while global emerging market equities were down 1.7 per cent and Asian markets, usually the most resilient, had dropped 0.9 per cent. Earlier in the week emerging market assets had reacted in a more contained way, but that “reflected the fact that they had already weakened meaningfully, so positioning was arguably lighter”, wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs.
全球增长放缓引发的恐慌对新兴市场造成的冲击大于对发达市场造成的冲击，这一点并不出人意料。到上周末，发达市场股市已收复了大部分失地，而全球新兴市场股市下跌了1.7%，通常最抗压的亚洲市场股市下跌了0.9%。高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师写道，本周早些时候，新兴市场资产的反应较为克制，但那“反映出一个事实：它们已然经历了幅度不小的下跌，所以头寸调整可以说不那么剧烈了”。
Emerging market currencies have been ailing for a while and are down more than 5 per cent for the year. While emerging market investment-grade debt has held up better, it has done so because of slowing growth and more disinflationary and deflationary pressures.
新兴市场货币已经疲软了一段时间，今年以来已贬值逾5%。尽管新兴市场投资级债券相对而言更加坚挺，但这是因为经济增长日益放缓、通胀减速(disinflation)和通缩的压力有所增大。
There are structural as well as cyclical reasons to continue to be gloomy about emerging market prospects – particularly in Asia. At the same time, though, investors should adopt a more nuanced view. While emerging markets are not about to decouple from the rest of the world, the divergence in performance within that overly broad category may become more dramatic.
我们可以找到与结构和周期相关的理由，来支持继续看淡新兴市场、尤其是亚洲新兴市场的前景。但与此同时，投资者也应更加细致地看待问题。尽管新兴市场不会与世界其余地区脱钩，但在这个覆盖范围极广的资产类别中，不同地区的表现差异或许会变得更为显著。
Asia in particular has to reinvent itself. Its export-led growth model is unlikely to work as well in future as it has for the past decade. Asian exports peaked in 2011 and since then manufacturers’ pricing power has grown weaker. Most importantly, China is shifting to a more domestic demand-led model. In recent years Chinese exports had big spillover effects for the rest of the region via supply-chain linkages, but those are starting to dwindle, according to Andrew Tilton of Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. Moreover China’s market share has stabilised, suggesting that trade gains will be more a zero-sum game.
亚洲尤其需要重塑自我。它的出口拉动型增长模式在未来不太可能像在过去10年里那么有效。2011年，亚洲的出口达到顶峰。自那以来，制造商的定价能力变得越来越弱。最重要的是，中国开始转向更加依赖国内需求拉动增长的模式。高盛驻香港的安德鲁•蒂尔顿(Andrew Tilton)表示，近年来，中国的出口通过供应链纽带对亚洲其余地区产生了很大的溢出效应，但这些效应已开始减弱。此外，中国的市场份额已稳定下来，这意味着对贸易收益的争夺将更多地变成一场零和游戏。
At the same time developed markets are growing more slowly. Worryingly, the US “will no longer be the consumer of first resort for emerging markets, given its improved competitiveness and reduced energy dependence”, notes Shweta Singh, senior economist at Lombard Street Research. Also the cost of credit in the world is rising, making Asian-style debt-fuelled growth more expensive. Financial conditions are tightening for emerging market companies as spreads widen and local currencies drop.
另一方面，发达市场的增长正变得更加缓慢。朗伯德街研究(Lombard Street Research)的高级经济学家什韦塔•辛格(Shweta Singh)指出，令人担忧的是，美国“将不再是新兴市场的首要消费者，因为美国的竞争力提高了，对能源的依赖下降了”。此外，全球信贷成本正在升高，也推高了亚洲那种债务驱动型增长的成本。随着息差扩大、本币贬值，新兴市场企业的资金环境正在趋紧。
Still, the impact of big macro trends differs among countries. For example one of Morgan Stanley’s favourite currency trades these days is to go long on the Indian rupee against the Indonesian rupiah. The Morgan Stanley trade partly reflects the beneficial effect that falling oil prices have on India’s current account and inflation, as well as the two countries’ differing dependence on US dollar funding. But, more profoundly, the trade reflects a general reversal in the relative fortunes of commodity importers and exporters. That reversal is taking place against a backdrop of a slowing China, which in turn is leading to lower demand for coal, iron, and oil.
不过，这一重大宏观趋势对不同国家产生的影响并不相同。例如，近期摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最青睐的外汇交易之一，是做多印度卢比、做空印尼盾。这在一定程度上反映出了油价下跌对印度经常账户和通胀产生的有益影响，还反映出这两个国家对美元融资的依赖程度不同。但意义更为深刻的是，该交易反映出了大宗商品进口国与出口国之间命运对比的总体逆转。这一逆转的大背景是：中国经济增长放缓，导致煤炭、铁和石油需求降低。
In large part thanks to lower oil prices, India’s current account deficit is at its lowest in six years. By contrast Indonesia’s deficit more than doubled to 4.3 per cent of GDP in the second quarter. A more benign environment could lead to a sustained virtuous circle in India, in which lower inflation promotes a stable currency and makes it possible in turn for the central bank to cut interest rates.
主要得益于油价降低，如今印度的经常账户赤字处于6年来的最低水平。相比之下，印尼今年二季度的赤字增加了一倍多，达到了国内生产总值(GDP)的4.3%。更有利的大环境可能导致印度出现持久的良性循环——通胀水平降低有助于维持币值稳定，进而为印度央行降息提供可能性。
India has already accumulated a sizeable war chest of about $315bn in reserves, compared with about $110bn for resource-rich Indonesia. And India is far less reliant on US dollar funding. Indonesia depends on foreigners to take 37 per cent of the debt issued in its local debt market. “Soft commodity prices, an uncomfortable current account deficit and rising real interest rates have conspired to drive Indonesia’s GDP growth down from a peak of 6.5 per cent to a lower growth channel of 5.0-5.5 per cent for 2014-2016,” Morgan Stanley says.
印度已积攒下了规模可观的外汇储备，金额约为3150亿美元。与之相比，资源富国印尼的外汇储备为1110亿美元左右。另外，印度对美元融资的依赖程度要低得多。而印尼在国内债市发行的债务，37%被外资买走。摩根士丹利表示：“在疲软的大宗商品价格、令人头疼的经常账户赤字以及不断升高的实际利率的共同作用下，印尼的GDP增长率已从6.5%的峰值下滑至较低的增长通道，2014至2016年的年增长率将为5.0%至5.5%。”
Divergence and relative shifts in fortunes are also likely in Latin America. Mexico appears to have stronger short-term prospects than Brazil or Chile, since 80 per cent of its exports go to the US, Ms Singh adds. A strong dollar also helps Mexico. But a world where emerging markets are battened on by their rich neighbours is unlikely to return.
这种分化和相对命运的转换很可能也会出现在拉美。辛格补充道，墨西哥的短期前景看来要强于巴西或智利，因为墨西哥对美出口占该国总出口的80%。美元坚挺也帮助了墨西哥。但是，那个新兴市场靠其富裕邻国发迹的时代很可能一去不复返了。
