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Bad news comes in threes. This week brings a Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday, the first targeted long-term loans from the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Scottish referendum result first thing on Friday. But as investors brace themselves for pain, they are also hoping for the best from what may be the biggest flotation ever, that of Chinese online retailer Alibaba.
坏消息接二连三。美联储(Fed)将在本周三开会，欧洲央行(ECB)将在周四首次推出具有针对性的长期贷款，苏格兰公投结果将成为周五一大早的重要新闻。但在投资者准备迎接痛苦之际，他们也在期待着中国在线零售商阿里巴巴(Alibaba)在美国上市带来最好的结果。阿里巴巴的IPO可能是全球规模最大的首次公开发行。
Alibaba has what shareholders crave: a highly profitable, fast-growing business. It has no controls on management excess, but for most investors corporate governance is dull and look – there’s Jack Ma! What could possibly go wrong with non-voting, only partial ownership shares in a company controlled by a single Chinese billionaire?
阿里巴巴拥有股东们所渴望的东西：一家利润极其丰厚且增长迅速的企业。股东无法制约管理层的过分行为，但对于多数投资者而言，公司治理单调枯燥，再说有马云(Jack Ma)在啊！由一位中国亿万富翁控制的公司，其不具投票权、仅代表部分所有权的股票能出什么问题呢？
Alibaba has been priced to go and demand looks strong. Following it to market will be Germany’s Rocket Internet. It is appropriately named. The Nasdaq Internet index is now up almost a fifth from its low in May, and only 5 per cent off its March peak. The other big growth story, biotech, hit new highs this month, in spite of a warning from the Fed’s Janet Yellen that the sector looks frothy.
阿里巴巴发行价设定合理，需求看上去非常强劲。接下来上市的将是德国的Rocket Internet。该公司的名字用的很恰当。纳斯达克(Nasdaq)互联网类股现在已从5月的最低点上涨近五分之一，距离3月的最高点仅差5%。另一个重要增长板块——生物科技股本月触及新高，尽管美联储的珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)警告称，该行业看上去有泡沫。
Biotechs are the main cause of an IPO boom in the US. If listings carry on at the pace they have been going so far, this will be the best year since 2000 both for numbers of IPOs and amounts raised (see chart).
生物科技类股是美国IPO热潮的主要原因。如果上市继续按照今年迄今的速度进行，从IPO数量以及融资规模来看，今年都将是自2000年以来最为红火的一年。
Investors should be concerned. As Jay Ritter of the University of Florida pointed out long ago, good times for IPOs tend to be a bad time to invest. This makes sense, as IPO booms come when valuations are high – the best predictor there is that returns will be low in future.
投资者应感到担心。正如佛罗里达大学(University of Florida)的杰伊•里特(Jay Ritter)很久以前所指出的那样，IPO的好时光往往是糟糕的投资时机。这是有道理的，因为IPO热潮往往出现在估值处于高位之时，恰恰说明未来回报率将会较低。
Demand for dotcom and biotech stocks begets supply, as start-ups are created and listed. Eventually demand will be satiated and the boom will end. Investors’ current willingness to sacrifice quality, in biotech, and corporate governance, in dotcoms, suggests demand and price in the sectors are far above what is reasonable.
对网络公司和生物科技类股的需求带来了供应：初创企业得到创建和上市。最终需求将被满足，热潮将结束。投资者目前愿意在生物科技类股的质量以及网络公司的公司治理方面做出牺牲，这似乎表明，这些板块股票的需求和价格远远超出了合理水平。
