While most investors are staying clear of China's poorly performing stocks, one of Asia's biggest homegrown money managers is planning a fund to do just the opposite: embrace unloved Chinese equities.
当多数投资者都在远离表现不佳的中国股市时,亚洲最大的本土基金公司之一惠理集团有限公司(Value Partners Group Ltd., 简称:惠理集团 )却在计划推出一只反其道而行的基金,专门投资不受青睐的中国股市。
Value Partners Group Ltd., a $10.5 billion money manager based in Hong Kong, plans to launch a fund in the third quarter to snap up shares in companies like coal miners and steelmakers. They've been big decliners since China started making noise about pollution and taking aim at energy-intensive heavy industries.
惠理集团计划在今年第三季度推出一只基金,以便大举买进煤炭、钢材等题材的股票。自从中国开始强调污染问题并把矛头指向高耗能的重工业以来,这类股票一直大幅下跌。总部位于香港的惠理集团目前管理着105亿美元的资产。
'They are too severely punished, to the point where it's worth thinking about deep value buying,' said Cheah Cheng Hye, chairman and co-chief investment officer of Value Partners Group Ltd., which will likely look to raise at least US$50 million for its contrarian fund.
惠理集团主席兼联席首席投资长谢清海表示,这类股票的跌幅过大,以至于可以考虑买进这些存在深度价值的股票。惠理集团可能考虑为这只基金筹资至少5,000万美元。
Other areas where Mr. Cheah says he sees value: automobile and engine companies and real-estate developers. The latter have sunk as the government cracks down on shadow banking--a term covering a wide range of financing activities alongside the traditional banking system, and a big funding source for developers in recent years.
在谢清海看来,存在投资价值的类股还包括汽车和发动机生产企业以及房地产开发商。中国政府打压影子银行的措施令房地产开发商类股遭遇重挫。影子银行业覆盖了与传统银行业并存的广泛融资活动,并且在近几年成为房地产开发商的一大资金来源。
The benchmark Shanghai index is down 37% over the past four years amid lackluster corporate earnings. Domestic investors--the major market participants--have turned their backs after being burned in equities and are deploying their savings instead in lucrative real estate and wealth-management products.
由于企业盈利情况乏善可陈,过去四年来,基准上证综合指数累计下跌了37%。作为主要的市场参与者,中国国内投资者在经历了投资股市的挫败后撤出资金,转而将资金投入利润丰厚的房地产市场和理财产品。
Value Partners has struggled this year, with its flagship product, Value Partners Classic Fund (A Units)--which has delivered an average annual return of 16% since 1993--down 6.1% as of last Thursday, worse than the benchmark MSCI China's 5.1% decline. The firm takes a value-investing approach, seeking to pick up undervalued stocks.
惠理集团今年也陷入困境,截至上周四,该集团旗下投资A股的旗舰产品惠理价值基金(Value Partners Classic Fund)下跌了6.1%,大于同期MSCI明晟中国指数5.1%的跌幅。而自1993年以来,该基金的平均年回报率达到16%。该集团采用了价值投资法,专门挑选估值偏低的股票。
'We had a very difficult [time in last] few months,' Mr. Cheah said. '[But] value investing has long summer and short winter in this part of the world.'
谢清海说,过去几个月,惠理集团经历了非常艰难的时期,但对于投资中国股市,价值投资法可谓利大于弊。
Recently, he says, he has started to see turnaround signals. 'Since the second half of March, there are signs that [outperformers] like Internet stocks that people used to like so much...are now losing ground compared to the value stocks we are investing in,' he said. 'But I do not know whether it's a new trend or it's just a blip'
最近他表示,他已经开始看到转变信号。他说,自3月下半月以来,有迹象显示表现强于大盘的股票(如人们过去非常青睐的互联网类股)现在相对于他们正在投资的价值型股票来说正落于下风。但他说,他不知道这是新的趋势还是昙花一现的走势。
The 60-year old Malaysian-born Mr. Cheah co-founded Value Partners with his partner V-Nee Yeh, who also established Argyle Street Management, a distressed-asset specialist, and is chairman of hedge fund Cheetah Investment Management. Mr. Cheah plans to grow Value Partners' assets under management to US$20 billion to US$30 billion in five to 10 years, and is opening another office in Singapore after expanding in mainland China and Taiwan in the past couple of years.
现年60岁、马来西亚出生的谢清海与其合作伙伴叶维义(V-Nee Yeh)共同创建了惠理集团,后者还创建了不良资产管理公司Argyle Street Management,同时是对冲基金捷达投资管理有限公司(Cheetah Investment Management)的主席。谢清海计划在五至十年内使惠理集团旗下管理的资产增加至200亿-300亿美元,同时继过去几年在中国大陆和台湾扩展业务之后在新加坡再开设另一处办公室。
For the contrarian fund, the company is also at looking at banks, which have fallen on worries that a slowing economy will translate into more bad debt.
公司还在为该反向策略基金寻找银行股投资机会,中国的银行股已因有关经济放缓将带来更多坏账的忧虑而纷纷下挫。
'Banks are trading below book because of fears of hard landing and a surge in nonperforming loans,' Mr. Cheah said. 'But our research team finds that even if NPLs go up to 10%, it's already in the price. And now official NPL is still 2%.'
谢清海说,由于市场担心中国将出现硬着陆和不良贷款规模激增,银行类股股价已低于账面价值。但他说,他们的研究团队发现,即便不良贷款比例上升至10%,也已经被股价所消化,而现在官方公布的不良贷款比例仍仅为2%。
Then there are 'old-economy companies in the export sector.' Much loved in the 1990s, he said, they've been badly beaten up.
他说,此外还有出口领域的传统型公司。它们中有很多在二十世纪九十年代倍受青睐,现在遭遇重挫。
'People think that exporters are either dead or dying, or moved to Bangladesh,' he said. 'But some of these guys are doing very well.'
谢清海说,人们认为出口商不是完蛋了就是快要完蛋了,或者都迁往孟加拉国了。他说,有一些出口商经营得非常好。
Mr. Cheah didn't specify individual stocks that the new fund will invest in. The Hong Kong-listed shares of China's two biggest lenders--Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and China Construction Bank Corp.--have fallen 24% and 16% respectively, since the end of 2009. They are barely trading at their estimated 2014 book value, or net asset value.
谢清海没有具体透露新基金将投资哪些个股。2009年年底以来,中国工商银行股份有限公司(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., 简称:工商银行 )和中国建设银行股份有限公司(China Construction Bank Co., 简称:建设银行 )这两家中国最大的银行在香港交易的股票价格分别下跌了24%和16%。这两只股票目前的价格基本与2014年的预期每股账面价值(即净资产价值)持平。
In the longer term, Mr. Cheah said, he sees much more investment opportunity in China than ever. Over the past 20 years, China's stock market has disappointed many investors, with prices failing to reflect the fast growth in the economy.
谢清海说,长期来看,目前中国的投资机会要比以往任何时候都多。过去20年,中国股市的表现令许多投资者失望,股价未能反映出经济快速增长的势头。
'Small- and medium-size companies or the private sectors are the guys that were making good money, creating employment and high returns. But many of these guys are not even listed,' he said.
谢清海说,中小型企业或者私营企业的盈利情况不错,这些公司创造了就业机会,并获得了高回报,但许多这样的公司还没有上市。
But now President Xi Jinping's administration is pushing an economic overhaul that will allow more private-sector businesses, such as hospital operators and pharmaceutical makers, to raise funds in the capital market. Businesses, including state-owned ones, will be under pressure to operate more efficiently--meaning improved profit margins despite a slowdown in sales growth.
然而中国国家主席习近平当前推行的经济改革将允许更多私人领域企业在资本市场上融资,例如医院运营商和药品制造商等。包括国有企业在内的企业将面临提高营运效率的压力,这意味着尽管销售增速放缓,但利润率将提高。
'The way forward is very good,' Mr. Cheah said.
谢清海说,未来的前景非常光明。