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The death of the dollar is coming, and it will probably be Chinathat pulls the trigger. What you are about to read is understood by onlya very small fraction of all Americans. Right now, the U.S. dollar is thede facto reserve currency of the planet. Most global trade is conductedin U.S. dollars, and almost all oil is sold for U.S. dollars. More than 60 percent of all global foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S.dollars, and far more U.S. dollars are actually used outside of the UnitedStates than inside of it. As will be described below, this has given theUnited States some tremendous economic advantages, and most Americans have no ideahow much their current standard of living depends on the dollar remaining the reservecurrency of the world. Unfortunately, thanks to reckless money printingby the Federal Reserve and the reckless accumulation of debt by the federalgovernment, the status of the dollar as the reserve currency of the world isnow in great jeopardy.
美元的死期就要来了，到时候按下扳机的或许会是中国。你即将要读到的，在全体美国人中也只有一小部分人能明白。目前美元实际上还是这个星球上的储备货币。全球大部分交易都用美元结算，几乎所有的石油都被兑换成美元。全球超过60%的外汇储备都是美元，在美国国外使用的美元要比在国内使用的还多得多……这样的例子还能举出很多很多，而这带给了美国巨大的经济优势，大部分美国人根本不知道他们现在的生活水平完全建立在美国还是储备货币的基础上…不幸的是，由于美联储胡乱印钱的做法，还有政府欠下的那一屁股债，美元作为世界储备货币的地位已然岌岌可危。
As I mentioned above, nations allover the globe use U.S. dollars to trade with one another. This hascreated tremendous demand for U.S. dollars and has kept the value of the dollarup. It also means that Americans can import things that they need muchmore inexpensively than they otherwise would be able to.
The largest exporting nationssuch as Saudi Arabia (oil) and China (cheap plastic trinkets at Wal-Mart) endup with massive piles of U.S. dollars…
就像我上面提到过的，世界各国之间都在用美元进行贸易。这也就带来了对美元的巨大需求，如此美元就一直贬不了值。这也就意味着美国人只要使用美元，就可以用低了很多的价钱进口物品。
由此带来的结果，就是各大出口国，比如沙特阿拉伯（石油）和中国（沃尔玛里那些廉价的塑料小制品），每个都拿到了一大堆一大堆的美元……
Instead of just sitting on all ofthat cash, these exporting nations often reinvest much of that cash into lowrisk securities that can be rapidly turned back into dollars if necessary. For a very long time, U.S. Treasury bonds have been considered to be theperfect way to do this. This has created tremendous demand for U.S.government debt and has helped keep interest rates super low. So everyyear, massive amounts of money that gets sent out of the country ends up beingloaned back to the U.S. Treasury at super low interest rates…
这些国家拿到钱自然不会就放着不动，这些出口国往往会将这些钱再投入到低风险回报快的债券中去，而投入债券的钱很快又产生了新的美元出来。在很长一段时间里，美国国债玩着一手玩得非常之好。这种做法不仅给美国政府债券创造了巨大的需求，还把利率压得无比低。因此每年大量的钱都会被送往各国，然后再借贷回来，变成美国的超低息国债……
And it has been a very good thingfor the U.S. economy that the federal government has been able to borrow moneyso cheaply, because the interest rate on 10 year U.S. Treasuries affectsthousands upon thousands of other interest rates throughout our financialsystem. For example, as the rate on 10 year U.S.Treasuries has risen in recentmonths, so have the rates on U.S. home mortgages.
对于美国经济来说，联邦政府能借到这么便宜的款当然是好事啦，因为十年期的美国国债一旦变化，金融体系里成千上万的其他利率都会跟着变化。举个例子，如果十年期的美国国债在近几个月内上涨，那么房屋抵押贷款的利率也会上涨。
Our entire way of life in theUnited States depends upon this game continuing. We must have the rest ofthe world use our currency and loan it back to us at ultra low interestrates. At this point we have painted ourselves into a corner byaccumulating so much debt. We simply cannot afford to have rates risesignificantly.
所以，我们美国人之所以还能维持这样的生活方式，全靠这个游戏还能持续下去。我们必须保证全世界都用我们的货币，都把钱低息贷回给美国。就这么刺激下去，贷款越堆越高，我们真是把自己推到窘境上了。如果利率大幅增长，我们真是付不起。
For example, if the average rateof interest on U.S. government debt rose to just 6 percent (and it has beenmuch higher than that at various times in the past), we would be paying morethan a trillion dollars a year just in interest on the national debt.
举个例子，如果美国政府贷款的利率稍微上调，也就调到6%吧（史上还有比这高得多的数字），那么我们每年光是为国债利息就要付一万多亿美元。
But it wouldn’t be just thefederal government that would suffer. Just consider what higher rateswould do to the real estate market.About a year ago, the rate on 30 year mortgages was sitting at3.31 percent. The monthly payment on a 30 year, $300,000 mortgage at thatrate is $1315.52.If the 30 year rate rises to 8 percent, the monthly payment on a30 year, $300,000 mortgage would be $2201.29.Does 8 percent sound crazy toyou?It shouldn’t. 8 percent wasconsidered to be normal back in the year 2000.Are you starting to get thepicture?
这还不是最厉害的。想想看，如果利率上调，对房地产市场会有什么影响吧。大约一年前，30年期房屋抵押贷款的利率是3.31%。贷款月付，一共30万美元的话就是1315.52美元。如果30年期贷款利率上升至8%，那么就成了2201.29美元。这8%吓不吓人？这个数还没什么。8%只是回到了2000年的正常水平。但您现在应该已经有些明白了吧？
We need other countries to useour dollars and buy our debt so that we can have super low interest rates andso that we can afford to buy lots of cheap stuff from them.Unfortunately, the truly bizarre behavior of the Federal Reserveand the U.S. government over the past several years is causing the rest of theworld to lose faith in our currency. In particular, China is leading thecall for a “de-Americanized” world. The following is from a recentarticle posted on the website of France24…
我们需要其它国家用我们的美元，买我们的债务，这样我们才能享受超低利率，才能有钱从其他国家那里买到大量便宜货。不幸的是，美联储和美国政府在过去几年里的举动各种奇葩，致使世界其它地方对我们的货币失去了信任。尤其是中国，居然站出来号召全世界搞“去美国化”，这是要来一招黑虎掏心啊。请看下面来自France24网站上的一篇文章：
For decades the US has benefited to the tune of trillions ofdollars-worth of free credit from the greenback’s role as the default globalreserve unit.But as the global economy trembled before the prospect of a USdefault last month, only averted when Washington reached a deal to raise itsdebt ceiling, China’s official Xinhua news agency called for a“de-Americanised” world.It also urged the creation of a “new international reservecurrency… to replace the dominant US dollar”.
几十年来，美元一直被各国人民当做储备货币来使用，就在这个过程中，美国逐渐构建起了价值几万亿美无条件信贷。然而上个月美国似乎即将违约，使得全球经济体人心惶惶，最后华府将债务上限提升才躲过一劫。为此，中国官方媒体新华社号召全世界“去美国化”。新华社还呼吁各国“创造一种新的储蓄货币…以替代现居主宰地位的美元。”
So why should the rest of theplanet listen to China?Well, China now accounts for more global trade than anyone else does, including the United States.
为啥其他国家都要听中国的呀？嘛，因为中国现在的全球交易额比任何国家都要高啊……连美国都比不过了。
China is also now the number one importer ofoil in the world.
中国现在从沙特进口的石油比美国从那里进口的还要多。
At this point, China is even importing more oil from Saudi Arabia than the United States is.
China now has an enormous amount of economic power globally, andthe Chinese want the rest of the planet to start using less U.S. dollars and tostart using more of their own currency. The following is from a recentarticle in the Vancouver Sun…
中国想要这个星球上的其他国家从现在起少用美元，多用他们家的货币……请看下面《温哥华太阳报》近期的一篇文章的节选：
Three years after China allowed the yuan to start trading in HongKong’s offshore market, banks and investors around the world are positioningthemselves to get involved in what Nomura Holdings Inc. calls the biggestrevolution in the $5.3 trillion currency market since the creation of the euroin 1999.
野村证券认为，自欧盟1999年成立后，唯有在这个5.3万亿的货币市场中发生的革命方可与比拟。野村证券所说的革命，就是中国允许人民币在香港离岸市场交易的这三年，而来自全世界的银行和投资者们都成了这场革命的参与者。
And over the past few years we have seen the global use of theyuanrise dramatically…
过去的几年来，我们都看到在国际市场上人民币是怎么突飞猛进的…
International use of the yuan is increasing as the world’ssecond-largest economy opens up its capital markets. In the first nine monthsof this year, about 17 percent of China’s global trade was settled in the currency,compared with less than one percent in 2009, according to Deutsche Bank AG.
自从全球第二大经济体开放资本市场之后，国际上对人民币的使用也在疯长。根据德意志银行的统计，今年头九个月，17%的中国国际贸易都是货币相关，而在2009年货币类所占比例还不到1%呐。
Of course the U.S. dollar is still king for now, but thanks to awhole host of recent international currency agreements this status isslipping. For example, China just recently signed a major currencyagreement with the European CentralBank…
当然啦美元现在还是老大嘛，但是由于最近许多国际货币条约的关系，这个地位也在滑落……比如中国近期就和欧洲中央银行签了货币互换协议…
The swap deal will allow more trade and investment between theregions to be conducted in euros and yuan, without having to convert intoanother currency such as the U.S. dollar first, said Kathleen Brooks, aresearch director at FOREX.com.
FOREX.com的一名研讨主管，凯瑟琳·布鲁克认为：“期货币买卖今后将允许各地区就欧元和人民币进行更多的贸易和投资，不必非要先兑换成美元之类的货币了。”
“It’s a way of promoting European and Chinese trade, but notdoing it with the U.S. dollar,” said Brooks. “It’s a bit like cutting out themiddleman, all of a sudden there’s potentially no U.S. dollar risk.”
“这实乃提升欧中双边贸易的方法，不过并没有用到美元哦。” 凯瑟琳·布鲁克说道，“这有点像是把中间人赶到一边，突然之间，大家都不用忍受美元带来的潜在风险了。”
