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The most terrifying words in the English language, according to Ronald Reagan, are: “I’m from the government and I’m here to help.” Today, for some Europeans, they are: “I’m from the EU and I’m here to bail you out.”
罗纳德•里根(Ronald Reagan)说过，英语中最可怕的几个词是：“我是政府派来帮忙的。”今天，对有些欧洲人来说，最可怕的几个词则是：“我是欧盟(EU)派来纾困的。”
Germany and the single currency have been made scapegoats for the problems of member states and for Europe’s inability to overcome the continent’s financial and economic crises. Berlin is accused of lacking solidarity, imposing contractionary policies and gaining competitiveness at others’ expense. The euro is blamed for depriving countries of their own central banks’ ability to act as lender of last resort and provide unlimited liquidity to the government and banks; and for depriving national policy makers of scope to devalue, thereby trapping them in a vicious spiral.
德国和单一货币已被当成了替罪羊。人们认为，欧元区成员国的问题就是这二者造成的，欧洲无力战胜发生在这块大陆的金融与经济危机，责任也在这二者身上。他们指责柏林方面缺乏团结精神、将紧缩政策强加于人、而且为提高自身竞争力不惜损害他国利益。至于欧元，人们则指责它一方面使得各成员国央行无法充当最后贷款人、不能向政府和银行业提供无限流动性，另一方面使得各成员国政策制定者失去了压低本币汇率的选项、从而让各成员国陷入恶性循环。
Germany is flabbergasted at being made the scapegoat. It sees itself as a victim, not a perpetrator. It has contributed substantial funds and assumed a great deal of risk for the five bailouts to date. And it has sacrificed much in the past decade to generate employment at home, with real wages barely higher today than in 1999.
对于被当成替罪羊这件事，德国倍感震惊。它认为自己是受害者，而不是加害者。德国为迄今为止的五次纾困提供了大量资金，承担了极大风险。而且在过去的十年里，为了在国内创造出就业岗位，德国作出了巨大牺牲，今天德国的实际工资水平只略高于1999年。
But the fact is that every country in crisis needs a scapegoat. It is hard to accept that the fruits of decades of hard work can vanish in a few years. For Europe today, painful domestic reforms can be accomplished only with a high degree of national solidarity, and it is tempting to rally against a common nemesis to achieve such solidarity.
但现实就是这样，每个处在危机中的国家都需要找到替罪羊。数十年来辛勤工作的成果，在短短数年之间就灰飞烟灭，这一点很难让人接受。就今天的欧洲而言，痛苦的国内改革只有在国民高度团结的前提下才能实现。因此对各国来说，为国民找到一个共同的出气筒来达成这种团结，实在是一个诱人的选项。
The history of financial crises is a good guide to how scapegoating works. Take the International Monetary Fund. Although some of its prescriptions during the 1997-98 Asian crisis were misguided, governments succeeded in implementing essential reforms – many of which domestic opposition had thwarted for years – by rallying national solidarity against the fund. The cost is that the IMF’s standing on the continent is permanently damaged, as shown by the unwillingness of Asian governments to accept its help during the global crisis of 2008-09.
金融危机的历史为我们清晰地指出了这种寻找替罪羊的做法是如何得逞的。就以国际货币基金组织(IMF)为例。在1997-98年亚洲金融危机期间，IMF开出的部分药方确实带有误导性，但有关国家的政府是通过使国民团结在反对IMF的大旗下才得以成功实施必要的改革的（其中许多改革曾在它们国内受到多年的阻挠）。为此付出的代价是，IMF在亚洲的地位受到了永久性的损害——亚洲国家政府在2008-09年全球危机期间不愿接受IMF援助，就佐证了这一点。
This strategy has, to some extent, proved effective in Europe. Germany is the perfect scapegoat: it is the big European brother who is doing well, is often diplomatically clumsy and has a stained history that makes it tempting to revive old prejudices. There is another virtue: scapegoating has so far allowed moderate governments to keep political extremism largely at bay, a remarkable achievement given the deep social changes under way.
事实证明，从某种程度上说，这种策略在欧洲是有效的。德国是一只完美的替罪羊：这位欧洲老大哥发展得不错、外交上又笨招频出、还有一段很容易引发人们旧有成见的肮脏历史。这种策略还有一个优点：迄今为止，寻找替罪羊的做法使得那些温和派政府得以在很大程度抵挡住政治极端势力的攻击——考虑到社会正在发生的深刻转变，这实在是个了不起的成就。
Yet scapegoating is dangerous. At stake for Europe is nothing less than the survival of the euro. The confrontations are causing deep rifts among both states and citizens. Surveys reveal a high degree of animosity between nations. Think of mocked-up photos showing German politicians in Nazi uniforms, or the misguided perception in Germany of citizens in crisis countries living on European welfare handouts.
然而，这种策略是危险的。它不仅对欧元的生存、而且也对整个欧洲造成严重的威胁。这种对抗正在各成员国、各成员国民众之间造成深深的裂痕。调查显示，各国之间的敌意已达到很高的水平。你只需想想那些给德国政治家穿上纳粹制服的讽刺照片，或是德国对依靠欧洲救济过活的危机国家民众的偏见。
The renationalisation of policy making – with politicians increasingly focused on domestic objectives – and the continued blaming of monetary union for national problems, in crisis and non-crisis countries alike, has eroded the credibility of European institutions and the euro. By making integration more difficult, if not politically impossible, this is starting to cause permanent damage. EU institutions may end up in the position of the IMF in Asia, with governments disengaging from Europe and turning inward.
由于各国政治家日益关注国内目标，欧洲的政策制定正在回归各国；另一方面，处于危机中的和未处于危机中的国家仍在将国内问题归咎于货币联盟。这两点侵蚀了欧盟机构和欧元的可信性。这一结果正开始对欧盟造成永久性的伤害，它加大了欧洲一体化的难度，甚至使之在政治上变得不可行。欧盟机构的处境最终可能会与IMF在亚洲的处境相同，各国政府会减少对欧洲事务的关注，转而把注意力放在国内。
What is the way forward? For one, Berlin must take more leadership in Europe. As irritating as it may be to be blamed for all Europe’s ills, Germany’s position of strength gives it a special responsibility. This means it should stop hindering financial and fiscal union, and start pursuing it more forcefully. To revive the European economy, it should also address its own domestic structural imbalances.
接下来该怎么做？首先，柏林方面必须在欧洲承担更多领导责任。就算被当作欧洲所有问题的罪魁祸首再令人不快，德国的强大地位也决定了它必须承担起特殊责任。这意味着，德国不应再阻挠财政与货币联盟的建立，而应开始更加有力地促成这一联盟。为了重振欧洲经济，德国还应解决其国内的经济结构不平衡问题。
Second, EU countries must assume greater ownership of reforms. Rather than scapegoating, governments need to convince their citizens that the fundamental restructuring is necessary and will be fruitful. It is clear, not just in Cyprus and Italy but across the EU, that we have a long way to go to achieve this.
其次，欧盟国家必须承担更大的改革责任。各国政府不应再寻找替罪羊，而是必须让本国民众相信，根本性的结构调整势在必行且将带来丰厚的回报。我们还要走很长的路才能实现这个目标，这一点显然不只适用于塞浦路斯和意大利，也适用于整个欧盟。
Third, selected decision-making processes in Europe must be removed from the national political sphere. The crisis has shown that, for many issues of eurozone governance, delegating decisions to intergovernmental political bodies does not work. We need to build institutions to fill this void. Creating a European finance minister, making institutions more immune to national interests and strengthening the European parliament are all urgent.
第三，欧洲一些高级别的决策程序必须与各国国家政治脱离关系。本次危机表明，对有关欧元区治理的许多问题来说，委托政府间政治机构作出决定是行不通的。我们需要设立相应的机构来填补这一空白。设立欧盟财政部长、建立更加不受各国国家利益左右的机构、以及加强欧洲议会的权力，都是十分紧迫的任务。
The renationalisation of policy making is splitting Europe and risks causing irreversible damage. The pursuit of these three measures is important if Europeans are to prove the Reaganite approach wrong and continue on the path of integration.
政策制定回归各国正在令欧洲陷入分裂，并可能造成不可逆转的破坏。如果欧洲人想证明里根的说法是错误的、并想继续走一体化道路，那么推行以上三项措施就有着重要的意义。
