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Time to unfurl Old Glory and break out the red, white and blue boxer shorts.
随着伦敦奥运会的临近，是时候让星条旗在空中飘扬、穿上我们的红白蓝国旗色短裤了！
Four years after China became the first country since 1992 to win more Olympic gold medals than the U.S., The Wall Street Journal's medal projections for London suggest the Star-Spangled Banner will once again play more often than any other anthem.And for the fifth consecutive Summer Games, the U.S. should finish atop the overall medal table.
四年前的北京奥运会，中国成为1992年以来首个奥运金牌数超过美国的国家。四年之后，《华尔街日报》对伦敦奥运会的奖牌预测显示，星条旗在赛场上升起的次数将再次超过其他参赛国家，同时美国的奖牌总数也有望连续在五届夏季奥运会上蝉联榜首。
China's victory in the gold-medal race in 2008 was supposed to herald the arrival of the newest Olympic superpower, a vast country with 1.3 billion people and a proven government-sponsored training program. Even at the U.S. Olympic Committee headquarters in Colorado Springs, there was a growing sense that China would win the most gold and overall medals in 2012.
中国在2008年北京奥运会的金牌角逐中拔得头筹，这本应预示着一个奥运超级大国的诞生：一个拥有13亿人口、运动员的训练由政府资助的大国。即便是在美国奥委会(U.S. Olympic Committee)位于科罗拉多斯普林斯(Colorado Springs)的总部，认为中国将在2012年获得最多金牌和奖牌的人也越来越多。
Instead, London should vindicate America's decentralized and entrepreneurial approach to developing the world's best athletes. The Wall Street Journal's projections show Team U.S.A.'s 530 athletes should leave London with 40 gold medals and 108 overall, topping the Chinese, who are projected to collect 38 gold medals and 92 overall.
然而，美国培养全世界最优秀运动员的那种分散型、主动进取的方法有望在伦敦奥运会获得证明。根据本报的预测，美国奥运代表团的530名运动员有望在伦敦奥运会上拿下40枚金牌、108枚奖牌，将超过中国代表团的38枚金牌和92枚奖牌。
The Journal's forecasting system takes into account basic information such as interviews with experts and the performances of athletes in recent national and international competitions. But rather than simply anointing first-, second- and third-place finishers in each event and calling it a day, the model assigns probabilities to the top medal contenders, then uses those probabilities to project the most likely outcomes.
我们的预测体系考虑到了很多基本信息，例如对专家的采访以及运动员在最近的国内和国际比赛上的表现。我们不仅仅是指出每项赛事的第一、第二和第三名就算了事，而是根据模型得出热门奖牌人选的获胜概率，然后通过这些概率来预测可能性最大的结果。
For instance, the U.S. women's basketball team, which hasn't lost a game at the Olympics since 1992, is an 80% favorite to win the gold by our count-while the next most likely winners come in at 10%. Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic, who has to prevail over stiff competition from Roger Federer and hometown favorite Andy Murray, has just a 40% chance for gold. After tallying those probabilities, we enlisted sports actuary John Dewan, owner of Baseball Info Solutions, to run 1,000 simulations of the Games.
例如，根据我们的计算，自1992年以来便一直独揽奥运金牌的美国女篮赢得金牌的胜算是80%，而位居其次的队伍的胜算只有10%。再以塞尔维亚网球明星诺瓦克•德约科维奇(Novak Djokovic)为例，他若要拿下金牌，得要在与罗杰•费德勒(Roger Federer)及英国本土选手安迪•穆雷(Andy Murray)的激烈竞争中获胜，因此他赢得冠军的概率只有40%。在得出这些概率之后，我们请来体育比赛精算师、Baseball Info Solutions网站的所有人约翰•杜文(John Dewan)对伦敦奥运会进行了1,000次模拟。
The results were emphatic: The U.S. won or tied for the most medals 998 times. And while the gold-medal race was less certain, the U.S. won it 746 times to 304 for China. There were 57 ties and seven scenarios in which Russia was a surprise winner.
结果非常明显：在这1,000次模拟中，美国有998次获得最多奖牌或是与他国并列获得最多奖牌。关于金牌的角逐则多了一些不确定性，其中美国获胜的次数是746次，中国是304次。此外，还有57次是美国与他国并列金牌榜榜首，另有7次是俄罗斯意外登顶榜首。
Some events were so close they were tough to handicap. This year, there's a cracker of a match before the Opening Ceremony even takes place, as the U.S. women's soccer team takes on a talented French side in a rematch of their 2011 World Cup semifinal. We expect the U.S. to survive on the strength of deadly scoring duo Abby Wambach and Alex Morgan, and to earn a medal, but the match shouldn't be missed.
有些比赛的参赛队伍的水平不相上下，难以预测它们的胜负。在今年，开幕式还未拉开帷幕就有好戏上演，美国女足与颇具实力的法国女足被分在了同一个小组，将再次上演2011年女足世界杯半决赛的一幕。我们预测美国队将能依靠阿比•瓦姆巴赫(Abby Wambach)和亚历克斯•摩根(Alex Morgan)这个得分绝杀二人组从小组出线并获得奖牌，这是一场不容错过的比赛。
Same goes for the showdown in the men's 110-meter hurdles, where China's Liu Xiang, Cuba's Dayron Robles, and Jayson Richardson of the U.S. are all capable of winning gold and setting a world record. Wall Street Journal projections have Xiang and Robles in a dead heat. And only a fool would miss the men's 200-meter freestyle, where American Ryan Lochte should beat France's Yannick Agnel by a fingernail, but not more.
此外，男子110米栏的决战同样也将难分胜负。中国的刘翔、古巴的戴龙•罗伯斯(Dayron Robles)以及美国的杰森•理查德森(Jayson Richardson)都有赢得金牌和创造世界纪录的实力。我们预测刘翔和罗伯斯的争夺将非常胶着。此外，恐怕只有傻子才会错过男子200米自由泳的比赛，我们预计美国选手瑞恩•罗切特(Ryan Lochte)将仅仅以极其微弱的优势击败法国选手雅尼克•阿涅尔(Yannick Agnel)。
As for individual sports disciplines, the predictions show the U.S. dominating where it usually does-in medal-rich swimming and track and field. Those two sports should account for 57 U.S. medals, or 53% of the U.S. haul. Swimmer Michael Phelps isn't chasing eight gold medals again, but he could easily win five gold and seven overall.
至于个人运动项目，根据我们的预测，美国将如往常一样在奖牌数量众多的游泳和田径项目中占据统治地位。这两个运动项目可能将给美国贡献57块奖牌，约占美国奖牌总数的53%。游泳运动员迈克尔•菲尔普斯(Michael Phelps)可能难以重现当年斩获八枚金牌的雄风，但是应该还是能够轻松拿下五枚金牌，总共应能获得七枚奖牌。
Chinese success in winning medals relies less on raw athletic talent than it does on intense training. The Chinese do best in the sorts of events where a tireless commitment to practice pays dividends. China, for example, should rack up medals in weightlifting (eight), diving (nine) and table tennis (six). In 2008, China won 16 medals in badminton and shooting and just two in swimming and track. Its swimming is improved, thanks to distance specialist Sun Yang, who is expected to win both the 1,500-meter and 400-meter freestyle races.
中国赢得的奖牌更多地依赖于高强度的训练，而非与生具来的运动天赋。中国运动员在不知疲倦的专心训练能够带来成功的运动项目中表现最佳。例如，中国可能会在举重（预计会获得八枚奖牌）、跳水（九枚奖牌）和乒乓球（六枚奖牌）这些项目中获得较多奖牌。在2008年北京奥运会上，中国在羽毛球和射击比赛中获得了六枚奖牌，但在游泳和田径比赛中只获得两枚奖牌。得益于长距离游泳健将孙杨的出现，中国的游泳成绩有所提高，我们预计孙杨有望获得1,500米和400米自由泳的冠军。
Britain's Olympic improvement should continue, too, with the country's hopes riding on a few key athletes, including distance runner Mo Farah, who may try to pull off the rare feat of winning both the 5,000- and 10,000-meter races. Meanwhile, Germany should continue to confound the experts, winning just 49 overall medals, far below what a country so populous, wealthy and successful at the Winter Olympics should.
至于东道主英国，它在奥运会上的战绩可能会继续提高，英国的希望主要寄托在几名关键运动员身上，包括长跑运动员莫•法拉赫(Mo Farah)，他有可能获得5,000米和10,000米双料冠军这样的骄人成绩。与此同时，德国的表现可能会继续让专家们感到困惑，预计它将仅获得49枚奖牌，这远远低于一个人口众多、生活富裕而且在冬奥会上表现抢眼的国家的应有水平。
On the other end of the spectrum: Jamaica. Led by Usain Bolt, the planet's fastest man, and the world's top sprint team, Jamaica should claim a dozen medals, four of them gold. Not bad for a country of just 2.9 million people.
境况处于另一极端的是牙买加。在地球上跑得最快的人──乌塞恩•博尔特(Usain Bolt)及世界顶尖的短跑军团的带领下，牙买加有望斩获十多枚奖牌，其中有四枚是金牌。对于一个只有290万人口的国家来说，这是一个不俗的成绩。
