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Finance & economics
财经板块
Russia's economy: bearing up
俄罗斯经济：承受重压
Why Russia is on track for a record trade surplus?
为什么俄罗斯即将实现创纪录的贸易顺差?
Within days of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s financial system seemed on the verge of collapse.
在弗拉基米尔·普京入侵乌克兰的几天之内，俄罗斯的金融体系似乎就处于崩溃的边缘。
The West imposed a range of financial sanctions, notably on the Russian central bank’s foreign-exchange reserves, that sent the rouble plunging and led citizens to withdraw cash frantically.
西方国家对俄罗斯实施了一系列金融制裁，特别是对俄罗斯央行的外汇储备实施制裁，导致卢布暴跌，民众疯狂地提取现金。
Then the central bank raised interest rates, imposed capital controls and injected liquidity into the banking system, and some of these misfortunes reversed.
随后，俄罗斯央行提高了利率，实施了资本管制，并增加了银行体系的流动性，让这种崩溃趋势得到了部分逆转。
Although a chunk of Russia’s currency reserves remains frozen, the country still generates about $1bn a day from its energy exports.
尽管俄罗斯的一大部分外汇储备仍处于冻结状态，但该国每天仍可通过能源出口创造约10亿美元的收入。
Russia has stopped publishing detailed monthly trade statistics. But figures from its trading partners can be used to work out what is going on.
俄罗斯已停止公布详细的月度贸易统计数据。但是，可以根据其贸易伙伴的数据来推断俄罗斯目前的情况。
They suggest that, as imports slide and exports hold up, Russia is running a record trade surplus.
人们认为，随着进口下滑而出口保持稳定，俄罗斯正在实现创纪录的贸易顺差。
On May 9th China reported that its goods exports to Russia fell by over a quarter in April, compared with a year earlier, while its imports from Russia rose by more than 56%.
5月9日，中国报告称，与去年同期相比，4月份中国对俄罗斯的商品出口下降了四分之一以上，而从俄罗斯的进口上升了56%以上。
Germany reported a 62% monthly drop in exports to Russia in March, and its imports fell by 3%.
德国3月份对俄罗斯的出口下降了62%，进口下降了3%。
Adding up such flows across eight of Russia’s biggest trading partners, we estimate that Russian imports have fallen by about 44% since the invasion of Ukraine, while its exports have risen by roughly 8%.
根据俄罗斯与其最大的8个贸易伙伴的交易数据，我们估计，自入侵乌克兰以来，俄罗斯的进口下降了约44%，而出口却上升了约8%。
Imports have collapsed partly because sanctions on the Russian central bank and the expulsion of some lenders from the swift interbank messaging network have made it harder for consumers and firms to buy Western goods.
俄罗斯进口大幅下降的部分原因是其央行遭遇的制裁，以及俄方一些银行被驱逐出快速的银行间信息网络，使得消费者和企业更难购买西方商品。
Elina Ribakova of the Institute of International Finance (or iif), a bankers’ group, says that regulatory uncertainty was also a big factor at first, as Western firms were unsure which Russian banks came under sanctions.
银行家组织国际金融协会(iif)的依林娜·瑞巴科娃说，起初，监管的不确定性也是一个很大的因素，因为西方公司不确定哪些俄罗斯银行会受到制裁。
Logistical disruptions, including decisions by Western firms to suspend deliveries to Russia, mattered, too.
物流中断也很重要，包括西方公司决定暂停对俄罗斯的运输。
The early depreciation of the rouble also dampened Russian demand for imports, says Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy.
万神殿宏观经济咨询公司的克劳斯·维斯特森表示，卢布的早期贬值也抑制了俄罗斯的进口需求。
Russia’s exports, meanwhile, have held up surprisingly well, including those directed to the West. Sanctions permit the sale of oil and gas to most of the world to continue uninterrupted.
与此同时，俄罗斯的出口出乎意料地保持良好，包括对西方的出口。西方的制裁允许俄罗斯的石油和天然气继续销往世界大部分地区。
And a spike in energy prices has boosted revenues further.
能源价格的飙升进一步推动了俄方收入的增长。
As a result, analysts expect Russia’s trade surplus to hit record highs in the coming months.
因此，分析人士预计，俄罗斯的贸易顺差将在未来几个月创下历史新高。
The iif reckons that in 2022 the current-account surplus, which includes trade and some financial flows, could come in at $250bn (15% of last year’s gdp), more than double the $120bn recorded in 2021.
国际金融研究所估计，到2022年，包括贸易和一些资金流动在内的经常账户盈余可能达到2500亿美元(占去年gdp的15%)，是2021年1200亿美元的两倍多。
That sanctions have boosted Russia’s trade surplus, and thus helped finance the war, is disappointing, says Mr Vistesen.
维斯特森说，制裁增加了俄罗斯的贸易顺差，从而为战争提供了资金，这一点很令人失望。
Ms Ribakova reckons that the efficacy of financial sanctions may have reached its limits.
瑞巴科娃认为金融制裁的效果可能已经达到极限。
A decision to tighten trade sanctions must come next.
接下来必须做出加强贸易制裁的决定。
But such measures could take time to take effect.
但这些措施可能需要一段时间才能生效。
Even if the EU enacts its proposal to ban Russian oil, the embargo would be phased in so slowly that the bloc’s oil imports from Russia would fall by just 19% this year, says Liam Peach of Capital Economics, a consultancy.
咨询公司凯投宏观的利亚姆·皮奇表示，即使欧盟实施其禁止进口俄罗斯石油的提案，禁运也会逐步缓慢地实施，所以今年欧盟从俄罗斯进口的石油仅会下降19%。
The full impact of these sanctions would be felt only at the start of 2023—by which point Mr Putin will have amassed billions to fund his war.
这些制裁的全面影响要到2023年初才会显现，到那时，普京将已积累数十亿美元，为战争提供资金。
