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中国仍有政策空间进一步稳定房地产市场

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China still has policy room to further stabilize the property market by boosting demand and optimizing supply without excessive stimulus, thereby further reining in the industry's downturn, experts said.

专家表示,中国仍有政策空间通过提振需求和优化供应来进一步稳定房地产市场,而无需过度刺激,从而进一步遏制房地产业的低迷。

However, the country needs to ramp up efforts to restructure both the property industry and the broader economy, to ensure high-quality development, they said.

然而,他们表示,国家需要加大力度重组房地产业和整体经济,以确保高质量发展。

We believe that there's still a high possibility of more supportive policies aimed at stimulating sales in the short run, which will help constrain the decline in property sales," said Wang Xingping, senior analyst of the corporates department at rating agency Fitch Bohua.

评级机构惠誉博华工商企业部高级分析师王兴萍表示:“我们认为,短期内出台更多旨在刺激销售的支持性政策的可能性很大,这将有助于抑制房地产销售的下滑。”

"The purchase restrictions in some districts of tier-1 cities are expected to be eased. However, the complete cancellation of such curbs in core areas of tier-1 cities may not happen in the short run as regulators aim to stabilize the property market while avoiding overheating again."

“一线城市部分地区的限购政策有望放宽。然而,一线城市核心地区可能不会在短期内完全取消此类限制,因为监管机构的目标是稳定房地产市场,同时避免再次过热。”

The Chinese authorities announced a new round of policy easing measures on Friday.

5月17日,中国相关机构宣布了新一轮政策宽松措施。

They rolled out a series of significant supportive policies nationwide, including further reduction in the down payment ratio to a historic low,

他们在全国范围内推出了一系列重大支持政策,包括进一步降低首付比例至历史最低水平,

lifting of the lower limit for personal mortgage loan interest rates, lowering of the provident fund loan interest rates and establishment of the special-purpose re-lending program for affordable housing.

取消个人按揭贷款利率下限,降低公积金贷款利率,以及建立保障性住房专项再贷款计划。

The new policies' aim is to boost homebuyer sentiment and ease developer liquidity stress.

新政策的目的是提振购房者情绪,缓解开发商的流动性压力。

Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, forecast that housing support measures may continue to evolve in the coming quarters.

摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强预测,未来几个季度,住房支持措施可能会继续出台。

"We see more urgency to execute home completion with better utilization of policy banking tools," Xing said.

邢自强说:“我们认为,通过更好地利用政策性银行工具来执行竣工验收更为紧迫。”

With further home purchase relaxations anticipated, the announced policies should facilitate faster market clearing, support liquidity among developers, restore homebuyer confidence and improve housing investment, albeit with a lag, he said.

他说,预计将进一步放宽购房限制,已宣布的政策应有助于加快市场出清,支持开发商的流动性,恢复购房者的信心,并改善住房投资,尽管会有一定的滞后性。

Amid a challenging period of sluggish demand and liquidity stress, the combined revenues of Chinese mainland developers listed in the A-share and Hong Kong markets reached 4.1 trillion yuan ($570 billion) in 2023, up 3.4 percent year-on-year, according to a report by Chinese-language newspaper Securities Times.

根据中文报纸《证券时报》的一份报告,在需求疲软和流动性压力的挑战时期,在A股和香港市场上市的中国大陆开发商的总收入在2023年达到4.1万亿元人民币(5700亿美元),同比增长3.4%。

Half of the developers realized revenue growth last year, having seen their revenue plunge in 2022.

一半的开发商在2022年收入暴跌后,去年实现了收入增长。

Most importantly, the leverage ratios of leading real estate companies have continued to decline, resulting in a more optimized assetliability structure.

最重要的是,龙头房企的杠杆率持续下降,资产负债结构更加优化。

For top-tier real estate enterprises with annual sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan in 2023, the median asset-liability ratio, after adjusting for advances from buyers, stood at 62.63 percent last year.

对于2023年年销售额超过1万亿元的一线房企而言,在调整购房者预付款后,去年的资产负债率中位数为62.63%。

That represented a 3.4 percentage point decrease from 2022 to a nine-year low, indicating a substantial reduction in leverage.

这比2022年下降了3.4个百分点,降至9年来的低点,表明杠杆率大幅下降。

Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura, a Japanese international financial institution, said the property industry remains key to cementing the momentum of the Chinese economy given its great significance to the entire economy.

日本国际金融机构野村证券中国区首席经济学家陆挺表示,鉴于房地产行业对整个经济的重大意义,它仍是巩固中国经济势头的关键。

While China needs to develop public housing in the long term as a focus of a new development model for the real estate industry, it is still critical now to revive the existing market-oriented housing supply system by ensuring pre-sold housing delivery, Lu said.

陆挺说,虽然中国需要长期发展公共住房作为房地产业新发展模式的重点,但现在通过确保预售住房的交付来恢复现有的市场导向型住房供应体系仍然至关重要。

Wang Qing, chief macroeconomic analyst at Golden Credit Rating International, said that for long-term stability in real estate and broader economic growth, a balanced approach between affordable and commercial housing is key — and restrictions on housing purchases and mortgage should be phased out gradually.

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示,为了房地产的长期稳定和更广泛的经济增长,经济适用房和商品房之间的平衡是关键——对住房购买和抵押贷款的限制应逐步取消。

"The government must increase affordable housing supply to meet needs from low-income groups, which supports urbanization and economic growth," he said.

他说:“政府必须增加保障性住房供应,以满足低收入群体的需求,这有助于城市化和经济增长。”

"The industry must abandon the 'three highs' model — high leverage, high turnover and high debt — to reduce developer credit risks. Implementing a capital-gains tax on property sales can also deter speculation and prevent excessive price increases."

“该行业必须放弃‘三高’模式——高杠杆、高周转和高债务——以降低开发商的信贷风险。对房地产销售征收资本利得税也可以遏制投机行为,防止房价过度上涨。”

Chang Haizhong, executive director of corporates at Fitch Bohua, warned that if economic development overly relies on the real estate industry, the economy would be easily impacted by cyclical fluctuations in the housing market.

惠誉博华工商企业部执行总监常海中提醒说,如果经济发展过度依赖房地产业,中国经济很容易受到房地产市场周期性波动的影响。

"In order to ensure stable economic growth, we need to step up efforts in economic structural transformation, and cultivate more emerging industries with huge market potential, like new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, lithium-ion batteries and the silver economy," Chang said.

常海中说:“为了确保经济稳定增长,我们需要加大经济结构转型的力度,并培育更多具有巨大市场潜力的新兴产业,如新能源汽车、光伏、风电、锂离子电池和白银经济。”

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