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Around the time of my first bumpy drive to ZF2, I called Simon Lewis at his office at the University of Leeds in England.
大约在我第一次经过颠簸之旅，开车到ZF2的时候，我给英国利兹大学的西蒙·刘易斯的办公室打了电话。
Simon studies uptake of carbon by forests.
西蒙研究的是森林对碳的吸收。
He said that the Earth's tropical jungles-of which the Amazon is the biggest-have a big effect on global climate.
他说，地球上的热带丛林对全球气候有很大影响，亚马逊是其中最大的热带丛林。
These tropical forests are providing a huge benefit to society for free: they're absorbing carbon from the atmosphere.
这些热带森林免费为社会提供了巨大的好处：它们正在吸收大气中的碳。
Every year humans release about 40 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. But only about half of it accumulates in the atmosphere.
人类每年排放约400亿公吨二氧化碳。但只有大约一半积累在大气中。
The oceans absorb some. The rest-about 30 percent of our emissions-is soaked up on land, particularly in the world's forests.
海洋吸收了一些。其余的被陆地吸收，尤其是被世界上的森林所吸收，这部分约占排放量的30%。
Climate scientists call this the land sink.
气候学家称其为陆地碳汇。
Most of them say that the Amazon is one of the land sink's biggest players.
他们中的大多数人说亚马逊是陆地碳汇最大的参与者之一。
Without it, carbon dioxide would build up more quickly in the atmosphere, and the climate crisis would be even worse.
如果没有它，二氧化碳将在大气中更快地积聚，气候危机将更加严重。
But the Amazon forest and its carbon uptake are at risk.
但亚马逊森林及其碳汇能力正处于危险之中。
Trees are being cleared for soy plantations, and the region's climate is becoming less forest-friendly.
为了种植大豆，人们把森林清除掉了，该地区的气候也不那么适合森林生长了。
The dry seasons are likely to increase in intensity and in length over the coming decades.
在接下来的几十年里，旱季的强度和长度可能会增加。
Patrick Meir is an ecologist at the University of Edinburgh.
帕特里克·梅尔是爱丁堡大学的生态学家。
He's studied how drought affects tropical jungle.
他研究了干旱对热带丛林的影响。
So in combination with a warming, we can expect increased drought stress on the system.
在全球变暖的背景下，我们可以预期气候系统面临的干旱压力将会增加。
And in addition to that, there's likely to be an increased frequency of extreme events.
除此之外，极端事件的发生频率可能会增加。
So all those suggest that the forest is going to experience higher temperatures, higher temperature maxima and greater drought stress.
所有这些都表明，森林将面对更高的温度、更高的最高温和更大的干旱压力。
Adverse conditions such as these might shut down the Amazon carbon sink.
这样的不利条件可能会终结亚马逊的碳汇。
But there is some reason for hope.
但我们也有理由抱有希望。
Before going into why, meet David Lapola of Brazil's State University of Campinas.
在讨论原因之前，先来看看巴西坎皮纳斯州立大学的大卫·拉波拉。
He's one of several scientists who shepherded the AmazonFACE project from the start.
他是从一开始就领导AmazonFACE项目的几位科学家之一。
I once asked him what attracted him to Amazon research.
我曾经问他，是什么吸引了他对亚马逊的研究。
He dated his interest to his late teens, while still in college.
他说自己的兴趣源于十几岁的时候，那时还在上大学。
There was an episode that I can tell you that happened.
我可以告诉你的是，发生了一段插曲。
It was his first trip to the Amazon, observing plants for some ecologists.
那是他第一次去亚马逊，为一些生态学家观察植物。
The work required long, solitary walks in thick jungle.
这项工作需要在茂密的丛林中独自行走很长时间。
One day, on hands and knees in a clearing, he jotted down a record in his notebook.
一天，在一片空地上，他双手跪地，在笔记本上草草记下了一项记录。
But then I looked back, and I couldn't find the trail.
等我回头看的时候，却找不到来时的踪迹了。
I was literally lost there. And miles from camp.
我在那里面迷路了。离营地几英里远。
There was nothing much I could do in terms of shouting. No one would hear me.
大喊大叫毫无意义。没人能听到我喊叫。
His heart was pounding and head spinning.
他心跳加速，头晕目眩。
He realized that if he lost his cool, he could make matters worse.
他意识到，如果他失去冷静，事情可能会变得更糟。
I had an orange in my pocket. To keep it calm, I peeled the orange, ate it.
当时我口袋里有一个橘子。为了让自己平静下来，我剥开橘子，吃了它。
He sat down, looked and listened. After a while he noticed a slashed branch.
他坐下来，四处张望，仔细聆听。过了一会儿，他注意到一根被砍断的树枝。
It had been cut with his own machete when he'd entered the clearing.
在他进入这片空地时，用砍刀砍断了这根树枝。
Then I went there, and then I could see another mark I did.
于是我走到树枝前，看到了自己留下的另一个标记。
Then I found my way back.
然后就找到了回去的路。
Despite the initial scare, he realized that while sitting still, he'd experienced an indescribable feeling of serenity and wonder that should be accessible to everyone.
虽然一开始很害怕，但他意识到，当他静静地坐着时，他体验到了一种难以形容的宁静和好奇，这应该是每个人都能感受到的。
So this is the sort of thing I think people should have the right to have in the future, you know?
我觉得这是人们在未来应该有权拥有的东西，对吧？
Just, you know, enjoying the sound, the calm feeling that the forest brings.
就是，享受森林里的声音，和那种平静的感觉。
And since then he's devoted his life to studying and protecting the Amazon.
从那时起，他一直致力于研究和保护亚马逊。
And when we talk about something like the possibility-the slightest possibility-of losing this forest to climate change and maybe other disturbances, that's something that moves me.
当我们谈到由于气候变化和其他干扰而失去这片森林的可能性，哪怕是最微小的可能性时，这让我很触动。
A decade ago David accepted an offer to lead an experiment to see if the progressively rising amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere might immunize the forest against the anticipated increased heat and drought.
十年前，大卫接受了领导一项实验的提议，以确定大气中二氧化碳含量的逐渐上升是否可能使森林对预期的高温和干旱产生免疫力。
This possible protective effect is called carbon fertilization.
这种可能存在的保护作用被称为碳肥。
Buried deep in their code, most global climate models assume that Amazon forest will benefit from morecarbon dioxide.
在那些代码中，大多数全球气候模型都假设亚马逊森林会受益于二氧化碳。
But David says whether it will or not is pure speculation.
但大卫表示，它是否能从中受益纯属猜测。
I mean, if we have a CO2 fertilization effect, it will counterbalance the effects of higher temperature, and the forest is kind of safe.
我的意思是，如果真有二氧化碳施肥效应，那它将抵消更高温产生的影响，森林基本上就是安全的。
But notice I said an if-if we have. We don't know if we'll have the CO2 fertilization effect.
但请注意，我说的是如果--如果它存在的话。我们并不知道是否真有二氧化碳施肥效应。
