评论
打印
The bequest boom
遗产热潮
In “Pride and Prejudice” Jane Austen did not have to explain to the 19th-century reader what Mr Bingley’s “four or five thousand a year” meant, or why it excited Mrs Bennet. It was obvious. Mr Bingley was an heir. And the surest way to get rich was not by working hard but by marrying the right person.
在《傲慢与偏见》中，简·奥斯汀不必向19世纪的读者解释宾利先生的“每年四五千英镑”的收入意味着什么，也不必解释为什么这让班纳特太太兴奋不已。情况很明显。宾利先生是一位继承人。而最可靠的变富途径不是努力工作，而是与合适的人结婚。
Fast-forward to today, and rich countries are starting to look like Austen’s world. In ways that will upend the economy and society, inheritance is back.
快进到如今，富裕国家开始看起来像奥斯汀笔下的世界。遗产再度回归，并将颠覆经济和社会。
In 1900 inheritances were worth over 20% of GDP in some countries, as people passed on vast stock portfolios and estates. The value of inheritances then fell in the 20th century, before more recently roaring back. By the end of the 2010s inheritances were worth, on average, 10% of GDP.
在1900年，一些国家的遗产价值超过了GDP的20%，因为人们传递了大量的股票投资组合和房地产。在20世纪，遗产的价值下降，然后近年来又大幅回升。到2010年代末，遗产的平均价值占GDP的10%。
The rise of the inheritocracy reflects three factors: increasing wealth, changing demography and slower economic growth. After the first and second world wars, the value of wealth, relative to national income, collapsed.
遗产继承的增长反映了三个因素：财富的增加、人口结构的变化、经济增长的放缓。在第一次和第二次世界大战之后，相对于国民收入的财富价值崩溃了。
Many of Europe’s buildings were destroyed. High inflation eroded the value of cash and government bonds. Politicians developed a taste for heavy wealth taxes and nationalisation. Many wealthy families, including the Vanderbilts, squandered their fortunes.
欧洲的许多建筑都被摧毁。高通胀让现金和政府债券贬值。政客们对高额财富税和国有化产生了兴趣。许多富豪家族，包括范德比尔特家族，都把财富挥霍一空。
Since then housing, in particular, has become more valuable, partly owing to restrictive planning policies, which constrain supply. Wealth taxes are out of favour, stockmarkets have performed fantastically, while inflation, at least until recently, has been low. Because of the rise of wealth managers and index funds, the rich have become better at avoiding the fate of the Vanderbilts.
自那以后，住房变得更有价值，部分原因是限制性规划政策限制了住房供应。财富税不受欢迎，股市表现出色，而至少直到最近，通货膨胀一直处于低位。由于财富经理人和指数基金的兴起，富人变得更加擅长规避范德比尔特家族的命运。
The second factor is demography. Baby-boomers have soaked up wealth, having come of age just at the point when house prices and stockmarkets started soaring.
第二个因素是人口结构。婴儿潮一代积累了大量财富，他们成年时，房价和股市刚好开始飙升。
Germans aged over 65, who make up a fifth of the population, own a third of the country’s wealth. Now the boomers are starting to die, leaving large estates to their heirs.
德国65岁以上的人口占总人口的五分之一，却拥有全国三分之一的财富。现在婴儿潮一代开始去世，将大量遗产留给了他们的继承人。
Economic growth is the third factor. People add to savings at a fairly consistent rate, but GDP rises less quickly. In recent years, owing to weak growth in both populations and productivity, rich-world GDP growth has slowed markedly.
经济增长是第三个因素。人们以相当稳定的速度增加储蓄，但国内生产总值的增长速度却较慢。近年来，由于人口和生产力增长乏力，富裕国家的国内生产总值增长明显放缓。
The inheritance boom may, in turn, reinforce the trend towards slower economic growth. Just as in Honoré de Balzac’s time, the best way to get rich is increasingly not to work hard, but to marry well.
遗产热潮可能继而加剧经济增长放缓的趋势。正如奥诺雷·德·巴尔扎克时代一样，变富的最佳途径越来越不是努力工作，而是嫁/娶得好。
The economic implications may be big. If people focus on matchmaking, rather than starting a company, innovation will suffer. Already, across the rich world, entrepreneurship is in long-term decline.
这带来的经济影响可能是巨大的。如果人们关注的是牵红线，而不是办公司，那么创新就会受到影响。在富裕国家中，创业精神已经长期处于衰退状态了。
