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We all like to think we are good at certain things—above average in certain areas. Most of us are at some things.
我们都往往认为自己在某些方面很擅长——在某些领域高于平均水平。我们大多数人在某些方面确实如此。
But the truth is, you are likely wrong about how good or bad you are at many things.
但事实是，你对自己在很多方面有多好或多坏的判断可能都是错的。
It is likely that you both over and underestimate your actual abilities in numerous areas of life.
你可能既高估了又低估了自己在生活中许多领域的实际能力。
And the areas and the degree to which you're wrong would probably surprise you.
你错的领域和程度可能会让你大吃一惊。
In a 1999 study, psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger discovered a phenomenon that would be coined the Dunning-Kruger effect.
在1999年的一项研究中，心理学家大卫·邓宁和贾斯廷·克鲁格（Justin Kruger）发现了一种现象，后来被称为邓宁-克鲁格效应。
After giving participants various tests that assessed their abilities in humor, logical reasoning, and grammar, the participants were then asked to self-assess their performance in relation to their peers in the study.
在给受试者进行各种测试以评估他们在语法、幽默、逻辑等领域的能力后，然后要求受试者自我评估他们在研究中相对于同龄人表现。
Dunning and Kruger found that people who performed poorly on the tests tended to believe that they did far better than they actually did,
邓宁和克鲁格发现，测试成绩不佳的人往往相信自己的表现比实际要好得多，
while those who performed well tended to misperceive their performance in relation to the average of their peers.
而表现良好的人往往会误认为自己的表现相当于同龄人的平均水平。
In other words, the study would discover the cognitive bias where people who are less knowledgeable or experienced in an area tend to believe that they are much more competent in that area than they actually are,
换句话说，这项研究将发现一种认知偏差，即在某个领域知识或经验较少的人倾向于相信自己在该领域的能力比实际要强得多，
and those who are experienced and knowledgeable in an area tend to underestimate or doubt their abilities.
而那些在某个领域经验丰富、知识渊博的人则往往低估或怀疑自己的能力。
These cognitive biases are the Dunning-Kruger effect. Although the phenomenon is debated amongst researchers and, on the surface, the effect may seem paradoxical and bizarre, arguably, the cause is understandable.
这些认知偏差就是邓宁-克鲁格效应。尽管研究人员对这一现象存在争议，而且从表面上看，这种影响似乎自相矛盾、怪异，但可以说，其原因是可以理解的。
If someone knows little about a subject or has little experience in a particular area, they do not have enough experience or knowledge to recognize the degree of their incompetence.
如果某人对某个主题知之甚少或在某个特定领域经验不足，那么他们就没有足够的经验或知识来认识到自己无能的程度。
In other words, they don't know enough to know what they do not know.
换句话说，他们不知道自己不知道什么。
"If you're incompetent, you can't know you're incompetent... the skills you need to produce a right answer are exactly the skills you need to recognize what a right answer is," said Dunning.
“如果你无能，你就不可能知道你无能……你得出正确答案所需的技能正是你识别正确答案所需的技能，”邓宁说。
On the flip side, people with more knowledge and experience in an area are aware of the complexity, vastness, and difficulty involved in being right or successful, and thus, they are likely to be more doubtful of their abilities.
另一方面，在某个领域拥有更多知识和经验的人意识到正确或成功所涉及的复杂性、广泛性和难度，因此，他们可能更怀疑自己的能力。
They also tend to think that others are more capable in the area than what is actually the case, and so, they are also more likely to underestimate themselves when ranked against others.
他们也倾向于认为其他人在该领域的能力比实际情况更强大，因此，他们在与他人比较时也更有可能低估自己。
Examples of the Dunning-Kruger effect demonstrated in studies include things like driving, where studies have shown that 93% of American drivers believe they are better than average.
邓宁-克鲁格效应在研究中得到证明，以驾驶为例，研究表明，93%的美国司机认为自己比平均水平要好。
The phenomenon is also often present in the workplace, where employees of companies tend to overestimate their performance compared to their coworkers
这种现象也经常出现在工作场所，公司员工倾向于高估自己相较于同事的表现，
where as many as more than 40% of a company's employees believe that they are in the top 5% of performers.
多达40%以上的公司员工认为自己是表现最好的5%。
Of course, everyone can't be better than most. There must be a most. Throughout the processes of learning, strategizing, evaluating, and reflecting, there is another process at play referred to as metacognition.
当然，不可能每个人都比大多数人更好。必须有一个最强。在学习、制定战略、评估和反思的过程中，还有另一个过程在起作用，称为元认知。
Metacognition is the awareness of one's own thought processes. It's one's thoughts about thinking.
元认知是对自己思维过程的意识。它是一个人对思考的想法。
A major part of the learning process and a major factor in being competent in something is the ability, through metacognition, to recognize patterns, errors, and problems in one's thinking and then employ strategies to deal with and overcome them.
学习过程的主要部分和胜任某件事的主要因素是能够通过元认知识别思维中的模式、错误和问题，然后采用策略来处理和克服它们。
According to Dunning and Kruger, when one is incompetent in an area, they lack metacognitive abilities in that area.
根据邓宁和克鲁格的说法，当一个人在某个领域不胜任时，他们就缺乏该领域的元认知能力。
As a result, this lack of awareness of their thought processes and knowledge prevents them from recognizing where and when they may go wrong, and so, in their mind, they never do.
因此，缺乏对自己思维过程和知识的意识使他们无法认识到他们可能在何时何地出错，因此，在他们看来，他们永远不会出错。
This phenomenon can be fairly unsettling on the individual scale—to know that you don't know what you don't know.
这种现象在个人层面上可能相当令人不安——要知道，你不知道自己不知道什么。
Of course, you already knew that, but the degree to which you're unaware and the areas that you might have such oversights, where you might otherwise feel pretty confident, can be disconcerting.
当然，你已经知道了这一点，但你不知道的程度以及你可能有这种疏忽的领域，而你原本可能会非常自信，这可能会令人不安。
But it's even more unsettling when considered on the collective, societal scale.
但从集体和社会的尺度来看，这更令人不安。
"What's curious is that, in many cases, incompetence does not leave people disoriented, perplexed, or cautious.
“奇怪的是，在许多情况下，能力不足并不会让人迷失方向、困惑或谨慎。
Instead, the incompetent are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, buoyed by something that feels to them like knowledge," said Dunning.
相反，能力不足的人往往拥有不适当的自信，被某种让他们感觉像是知识的东西所鼓舞，”邓宁说。
Partly as a result of the Dunning-Kruger effect, people who are not qualified to speak on certain subjects are still some of the most confident and loudest who do.
部分由于邓宁-克鲁格效应，没有资格谈论某些话题的人仍然是最自信、最大声的人。
More qualified individuals, rather, tend to be less loud and less simplistic and, instead, more thoughtful and cautious.
相反，更有资格的人往往不那么大声，不那么头脑简单，而是更加深思熟虑和小心谨慎。
And for exceptionally high-level experts, since they tend to misperceive how big of a gap there is between them and the average person,
对于非常高水平的专家来说，由于他们往往会误解他们和普通人之间的差距有多大，
it can be reasonably assumed that they are likely to insufficiently communicate about the subject they are an expert in with a general audience.
可以合理地假设他们很可能没有充分地与普通观众交流他们所擅长的话题。
And of course, in some cases, complex things simply cannot be fully explained quickly or in comprehensive terms to individuals who are not experts themselves.
当然，在某些情况下，复杂的事情根本无法向外行快速或全面解释清楚。
And so, out of the lot here—the incompetent but confident amateur, the competent but cautious intermediate, or the exceptionally competent expert who is confident but struggles to understand and communicate with the laymen—
那么，在这群人中——能力不足但自信满满的业余爱好者、能力强但谨慎的中级专家，还是能力超群、自信满满但难以理解和与外行交流的专家——
who is more convincing to a mass audience of individuals who do not know the difference between correct and false information?
谁更能说服那些不知道正确信息和错误信息区别的大众？
It's seemingly become more and more common to have an opinion about nearly everything. Maybe it's always been this way.
对几乎所有事情都有自己的看法似乎变得越来越普遍。也许一直都是这样。
Maybe having access to all the world's information but only enough time to read the headlines and the incentive to still leave a comment has exacerbated this human tendency.
也许可以获取世界上所有的信息，但只有足够的时间阅读标题和留下评论的动机加剧了这种人类倾向。
Whatever the case, because of this and in combination with the Dunning-Kruger effect, some of the voices we hear the most of are the least qualified, useful, or accurate.
无论如何，由于这一点，再加上邓宁-克鲁格效应，我们听到最多的一些声音是最不合格、最无用或最不准确的。
They are, rather, voices of confidence and charisma, not nuance and care.
相反，它们是自信和魅力的声音，而不是细微差别和关怀的声音。
The right voices, rather, are often quitter, harder to parse, or still looking for the right words and means to express themselves.
相反，正确的声音往往更沉默，更难解析，或者仍在寻找正确的词语和表达方式。
It's natural to want to have a voice that is heard. It's desirable to be perceived, liked, followed, impactful. Being a voice of change and impact is a noble goal.
想要发出被听到的声音是很自然的。被感知、被喜欢、被追随、有影响力是可取的。成为变革和有影响力的声音是一个崇高的目标。
But sometimes the greatest impact is silence. Does the world really need more voices? Or does the world need more careful voices?
但有时最大的影响是沉默。世界真的需要更多的声音吗？还是世界需要更多谨慎的声音？
Of course, the irony here—being a voice that is not silent—is not lost. But the point here is not merely about being silent outright.
当然，这里的讽刺之处——成为一个不沉默的声音——并没有消失。但这里的重点不仅仅是保持沉默。
It is about being carefully noisy—at least attempting to be. It's impossible to have no opinions.
这是关于谨慎地发出噪音——至少是试图这样做。没有意见是不可能的。
But it is possible to have less or be more careful around how we hold the ones we do.
但我们有可能在如何表达自己的想法方面少一些或多一些谨慎。
Once you know about the Dunning-Kruger effect, it might feel like now you are no longer susceptible to it.
一旦你了解了邓宁-克鲁格效应，你可能会觉得现在你不再容易受到它的影响了。
Or perhaps, you might feel as though it's something you never were susceptible to.
或者，你可能会觉得这是你从未受到影响的东西。
You're not the kind of person who overestimates their abilities. Your cautious and thoughtful and self-ware. You never make claims about things you don't know.
你不是那种高估自己能力的人。你谨慎、深思熟虑、有自知之明。你从不评价自己不知道的事情。
You know your blind spots. But, of course, that's not how blind spots work.
你知道自己的盲点。但盲点当然不是这样运作的。
In truth, do you think anyone who is subject to the Dunning-Kruger effect, overestimating their abilities or knowledge, thinks they are?
事实上，你认为任何受到邓宁-克鲁格效应影响、高估自己的能力或知识的人，都认为自己是这样的吗？
The phenomenon is precisely that one does not know that they are a victim to it.
这种现象恰恰是人们不知道自己是这种现象的受害者。
"The first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club is that you don't know you're a member of the Dunning-Kruger club," said Dunning.
“邓宁-克鲁格俱乐部的第一条规则是，你不知道自己是邓宁-克鲁格俱乐部的成员，”邓宁说。
In fact, thinking you're impervious to the Dunning-Kruger effect is itself an example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
事实上，认为自己不受邓宁-克鲁格效应的影响本身就是邓宁-克鲁格效应的一个例子。
You know just enough about the phenomenon to believe you can circumvent it, while not knowing enough to know you probably can't—at least not automatically or universally.
你对这种现象的了解足以让你相信你可以规避它，但了解的还不足以让你知道你可能做不到——至少不是自动或普遍的。
Perhaps, however, we can overcome it more often with a certain kind of awareness and attitude.
然而，也许我们可以通过某种意识和态度来更频繁地克服它。
By more regularly being silent, by being willing to be a nobody, to let our voice, our presence, our existence not always be involved, we can perhaps be a victim of the effect less and be on the right side of the effect more.
通过更经常地保持沉默，通过愿意做一个无名小卒，让我们的声音、我们的存在、我们的存在感不总是被牵扯进来，我们也许可以更少地成为这种效应的受害者，而更多地站在这种效应的正确一边。
In truth, the average person is well-read and experienced in a relatively small quantity of things (at best). We don't need to be in more than that. We shouldn't try or pretend to be.
事实上，普通人博览群书，在相对较少的事情上经验丰富。我们不需要参与更多的事情。我们不应该试图或假装参与。
After a certain point, the quantity of opinions one holds is almost always inversely proportional to the quality and accuracy of them.
在某个点之后，一个人持有的观点的数量几乎总是与它们的质量和准确性成反比。
We will inevitably often fail at correctly making the distinction for ourselves and knowing which areas we belong in and which of our opinions deserve sharing.
我们不可避免地经常无法正确地为自己做出区分，也不知道我们属于哪些领域，我们的哪些观点值得分享。
But that's okay. The goal here is simply to try our best. Ultimately, the Dunning-Kruger effect is a continual sliding scale that follows us through life.
但没关系。这里的目标只是尽力而为。归根结底，邓宁-克鲁格效应是一个持续的滑动尺度，伴随我们一生。
As long as we take on new endeavors, new challenges, new goals, we will be incompetent in certain areas.
只要我们承担新的事业、新的挑战、新的目标，我们在某些领域就会无能为力。
And as long as we are incompetent, we will be partially ignorant to the true degree of our incompetence.
只要我们无能，我们就会对自己无能的真正程度一无所知。
But as long as we continue to learn and grow, we will also uncover new knowledge, and we will continue to realign our self-perception with our actual abilities.
但只要我们继续学习和成长，我们也将发现新知识，我们将继续根据我们的实际能力重新调整自我认知。
Life is a continuous cycle of realizing how little you knew, how much you were wrong, and how complex things really are. And then, realizing it again.
生活是一个不断的循环，不断意识到自己知道的有多么少，自己错得多么离谱，事情有多么复杂。然后，再次意识到这一点。
