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The magic and the minefield of confidence
自信的魔力和潜在危险
Confidence is contagious. Someone declaring a position with ringing certainty is more likely to inspire than someone who hedges their bets.
信心是会传染的。一个以清晰响亮的确定态度宣布立场的人，比那些多方讨好的人更可能有鼓舞作用。
“We may fight them on the beaches; it depends a bit on the weather,” would have been a lot less persuasive. What is true of Churchill’s wartime oratory is true in less dramatic circumstances.
“我们可能会在海滩上与他们战斗，这稍微取决于天气。”如果这样说就不会那么有说服力了。丘吉尔战时演讲中的一些道理也适用于不那么戏剧性的情况。
A study by Matthias Brauer of the University of Mannheim and his co-authors analysed language used in letters from activist investors; it found that more confident letters were associated with more successful activist campaigns.
曼海姆大学的马蒂亚斯·布劳尔及其合著者的一项研究分析了社会活动投资者在信件中使用的语言，研究发现，更自信的信与更成功的社会运动相关。
Confidence confers status. In a study published in 2012 by Cameron Anderson of the University of California, Berkeley and his co-authors, students on an MBA course were asked to take an online survey before they started classes.
信心赋予地位。在2012年由加州大学伯克利分校的卡梅隆·安德森及其合著者发表的一项研究中，MBA课程的学生们被要求在开始上课之前参加一项在线调查。
The questionnaire asked participants to say if they recognised certain names, events and works of art; unknown to them, the options included both genuine choices, such as Maximilien Robespierre and “Pygmalion”, and made-up ones like Bonnie Prince Lorenzo and “Windemere Wild”.
问卷要求参与者们说出他们是否认识某些名字、事件、艺术作品，参与者们不知道的是，这些选项既包括真实的选择，如马克西米利安·罗伯斯庇尔和《皮格马利翁》，也包括编造的选择，如邦尼王子洛伦佐和《温德米尔荒野》。
Overconfident students who had picked more fictitious entries turned out to have the most influence on their classmates, according to end-of-term ratings.
那些选择了更多编造条目的过度自信的学生结果对同学的影响力最大，影响力根据期末评分判定。
As much as confidence brings rewards, however, it also brings danger.
然而就像自信带来了回报一样，自信也带来了危险。
Work by Ulrike Malmendier of the University of California, Berkeley and Geoffrey Tate of the University of Maryland has found that overconfident bosses are much more likely to undertake acquisitions (though they are more averse to external financing, believing that it undervalues their businesses). Their acquisitions are also more likely to destroy value.
加州大学伯克利分校的乌尔丽克·马尔门迪尔和马里兰大学的杰弗里·泰特的研究发现，过度自信的老板更有可能进行购置（尽管他们更不愿意进行外源融资，认为这低估了自己公司的价值）。他们的购置行为也更有可能破坏企业价值。
Another paper, by Guoli Chen of INSEAD and his co-authors, looked at the relationship between CEOs’ confidence and their earnings forecasts. The researchers found that bosses with inflated levels of self-belief were slower to adjust their forecasts when they proved inaccurate.
由欧洲工商管理学院的陈国立及其合著者撰写的另一篇论文研究了CEO的自信与其盈利预测之间的关系。研究人员发现，过度自信的老板在预测被证明不准确时，调整预测的速度更慢。
In an ideal world, confidence would be distributed evenly and in just the right quantities: an optimally confident person is someone secure enough to trust their own judgment and to accept that it is fallible.
在理想世界中，信心会均匀分布且数量恰到好处：一个具有最适宜自信水平的人有足够的安全感，既相信自己的判断，又接受自己的判断可能出错。
