One of the less serious impacts of a system that has too many people qualified for too few elite jobs is title inflation.
一个让太多人有资格从事太少精英工作的系统所带来的不太严重的影响就是头衔通胀。
If you can't find a senior role for everybody with an MBA from the University of Phoenix, then you have to give them a fancy sounding title.
如果你不能为所有拥有凤凰城大学MBA学位的人找到一个高级职位,那么你必须给他们一个听起来很花哨的头衔。
Salesmen are now account executives. Receptionists are now directors of first impressions. And marketers are brand presidents.
销售员现在是客户经理。接待员现在是第一印象主管。营销人员是品牌总裁。
Job title inflation like this sounds extremely dumb until you realize that it works.
这样的职位头衔膨胀听起来非常愚蠢,直到你意识到它是有效的。
A UK study found that 70% of workers would give up a pay rate to get a job with a better sounding title, with some forgoing as much as $10,000 to take a role that sounds more senior.
英国的一项研究发现,70%的工人愿意放弃工资率来获得一个头衔听起来更好的工作,有些人甚至愿意放弃高达10000美元的薪水来担任一个听起来更高级的职位。
This study is very old now but one look at LinkedIn will show you that it hasn't gotten much better.
这项研究已经很老了,但只要看一下LinkedIn就会发现情况并没有好转多少。
Now while it's fun to laugh at goobers on LinkedIn, the problems of elite overproduction as outlined by Turchin manifest in other areas as well.
虽然在LinkedIn上嘲笑傻瓜很有趣,但图尔钦概述的精英过剩也体现在其他领域。
As more people become qualified and expect to fill glamorous corporate roles, it creates a political pressure to make sure that people get those roles.
随着越来越多的人获得资格并期望担任光鲜亮丽的公司职位,这产生了一种政治压力,以确保人们获得这些职位。
The anthropologist David Graeber spoke about his role of the box tickers in his infamous book Bullshit Jobs.
人类学家大卫·格雷伯在其臭名昭著的著作《毫无意义的工作》中谈到了勾框型工作。
These were roles that only existed to satisfy some arbitrary requirements, overseen by other box tickers to give the appearance that something useful was being done.
这些职位只是为了满足一些任意要求而存在的,由其他打勾人监督,以给人一种正在做一些有用事情的印象。
The best way to create these jobs is through laws and programs that mandate them.
创造这些工作的最佳方式是通过强制执行的法律和程序。
I made a video last year about the homelessness crisis in America and why despite spending billions of dollars on it, we are only making it worse.
去年我制作了一个关于美国无家可归危机的视频,以及为什么尽管花费了数十亿美元,但只会让情况变得更糟。
One of the problems is that there were thousands of jobs being created in various local state and federal government departments alongside nonprofits that paid workers very well.
问题之一是,各地方州和联邦政府部门以及非营利组织创造了数千个工作岗位,为员工支付了丰厚的报酬。
With so many elite jobs on offer, there is no real incentive to fix the problem.
有这么多精英工作可供选择,没有真正的动力去解决这个问题。
Because for the individuals running the programs, they would have to find a new job and for the politicians approving the budget, they would have to explain why thousands of professional jobs went missing under their administration.
因为对于运行这些项目的个人来说,他们必须找到一份新工作,而对于批准预算的政客来说,他们必须解释为什么在他们的管理下数千个工作岗位消失了。
Now I just wanted to shamelessly mention my old video but it's by no means limited to this one problem.
现在我只想厚颜无耻地提一下我的旧视频,但这绝不仅限于这个问题。
Millions of people across America are employed in some kind of compliance role with a private company. Some of these roles are incredibly important, some less so.
全美有数百万人在私营公司从事某种合格工作。其中一些岗位非常重要,有些则不那么重要。
But if compliance standards are dropped, then the politician who passed that law would have a lot of potential voters angry that they made their job irrelevant.
但如果合规标准被取消,那么通过这项法律的政客将让很多潜在选民感到愤怒,因为他们让工作变得无关紧要。
Now so far it all sounds like the blame of elite overproduction ultimately falls on the people who thought they were too good for a real job and felt entitled to an elite position just because they got a communications degree.
到目前为止,这一切听起来都像是精英过剩的责任最终落在了那些认为自己被大材小用并仅仅因为他们获得了传播学学位就觉得自己有资格获得精英职位的人身上。
That is not entirely unfair and there does need to be a level of personal accountability for your own personal decisions.
这并不完全不公平,而且确实需要对自己的个人决定承担一定程度的个人责任。
But we've made it incredibly easy to follow the path of least resistance into the pile of college graduates. Striving for an elite job has also become a necessity in many parts of the country.
但是,大学毕业生非常容易选择阻力最小的路径。在全国许多地方,争取一份精英工作也已成为一种必需品。
If you want to live a comfortable version of the American dream in most cities across the country these days, you need to have an extremely good job.
如果你想在如今的全国大多数城市过上舒适的生活,实现美国梦,你需要有一份非常好的工作。
More than a third of Americans earning $250,000 per year are still living paycheck to paycheck because the places where they can access these elite jobs are ludicrously expensive.
超过三分之一的年收入为25万美元的美国人仍然过得很拮据,因为他们可以获得这些精英工作的地方物价非常昂贵。
The study unsurprisingly found that budget stress was far higher amongst younger earners because the only consistent way for them to earn that much money was to get an elite job in an elite city.
这项研究毫不意外地发现,年轻收入者的预算压力要大得多,因为他们赚这么多钱的唯一稳定方法就是在精英城市找到一份精英工作。
Blue-collar work can make a lot more than entry-level corporate roles but unless you can successfully start your own business, the ceiling on how much you can earn in these roles is much lower. In areas away from expensive cities, that's okay.
蓝领工作可以比入门级公司职位赚得更多,但除非你能成功创办自己的企业,否则你在这些职位上能赚到的钱的上限要低得多。在远离昂贵城市的地区,这没问题。
But if you grew up in a major city and you want to keep living there, then you kind of have to play the game of fighting for an elite job by working your way up the corporate ladder or fighting through ultra competitive internships.
但如果你在一个大城市长大,你想继续住在那里,那么你就必须通过努力在公司中晋升或通过极具竞争力的实习来争取一份精英工作。
If you are successful, congratulations! You can buy a Tesla Model 3 and rent a one-bedroom apartment in Seattle.
如果你成功了,恭喜你!你可以买一辆特斯拉Model 3并在西雅图租一套一居室公寓。
But if you are not, then you can contribute to the biggest problem that Turchin discusses in his writing.
但如果你失败了,那么你就可能加剧图尔钦在其文章中讨论的最大问题。
People who have invested a significant amount of money, not to mention years of their life, into pursuing a role that they were told they were entitled to, breeds a lot of discontent when they end up underemployed.
那些投入大量金钱(更不用说数年人生)追求被告知有权获得的工作的人,当他们最终失业时,会产生很多不满。
These people who fairly rightfully feel scammed out of what they were told was a guarantee are now a significant voting block.
这些人理所当然地觉得自己被骗走了被告知的保障,现在他们成为了一个重要的投票群体。
That's created political pressure to not only maintain as many of these nonsense jobs as possible but also to pursue student debt relief, advanced education subsidies and retraining initiatives.
这产生了政治压力,不仅要尽可能多地保留这些无意义的工作,还要寻求学生债务减免、高等教育补贴和再培训计划。
It might fix a lot of problems but there is no getting around the fact that it's not exactly fair to people who have already paid off their debt or never took them on in the first place because they didn't pursue an elite career path.
这可能会解决很多问题,但无法回避的事实是,这对那些已经还清债务或从一开始就没有承担债务的人来说并不公平,因为他们没有追求精英职业道路。
Now this is not to say that these are good or bad ideas. It's only to say that they wouldn't even be considered if there weren't so many people that had become trapped as an overproduced elite enough people to make this politically viable.
这并不是说这些想法是好是坏。只能说,如果没有那么多人陷入过度生产的精英阶层,他们甚至不会被考虑,因为没有足够的人让这一政策在政治上可行。
Unfortunately, as the great DJ Khaled would say, we have played ourselves to get here in the first place.
不幸的是,正如伟大的DJ Khaled所说,我们一开始就玩弄了自己。
Beyond the expense and tensions caused by having so many people qualified to do roles that are inherently rare, we have forgotten how to do the foundational stuff.
除了有这么多人有资格做本来就很少见的工作而造成的费用和紧张局势之外,我们还忘记了如何做基础性的工作。
America's housing crisis is in part being accelerated by the cost to build new homes because we don't have enough tradesmen to keep up with the demand for new housing.
美国的住房危机在一定程度上是由建造新房的成本加速的,因为我们没有足够的工匠来满足对新住房的需求。
The fact that housing is so expensive only makes this problem worse because people see that the only way they will ever be able to afford a home of their own is to compete for an elite role with every other hopeful graduate.
住房如此昂贵的事实只会使这个问题变得更糟,因为人们认为,他们唯一能买得起自己的房子的方法就是与其他所有有希望的毕业生竞争精英职位。
We have also become more reliant on skilled migration to fill the gaps in our workforce which also drive more demand for housing and more desire to be elite just to stay afloat.
我们也越来越依赖技术移民来填补劳动力的缺口,这也推动了对住房的更多需求和更多成为精英的愿望,以维持生计。
Now Turchin makes the argument that this is the single unifying issue that has led to the collapse of all great civilizations.
现在,图尔钦认为,这是导致所有伟大文明崩溃的唯一统一问题。
That might be a bit of hyperbole to move some books but it does make it a little bit worrying when you see the symptoms that he first warned about several decades ago.
这可能有点夸张,但当你看到他几十年前首次警告的症状时,确实会让人有点担心。
I will be writing a follow-up article to this video about the clown show that is modern internships for high-end finance firms.
我将为这个视频写一篇后续文章,介绍高端金融公司现代实习的小丑秀。
It might be the most obvious example of Turchin's warnings in action and that will be up this week on my free email newsletter link below.
这可能是图尔钦的警告付诸行动的最明显例子,本周将在以下免费电子邮件通讯链接上发布。
Living costs are at the center of this problem, especially housing. But go and watch this video to find out if we can even make housing affordable without destroying the economy in the process. To keep on learning How Money Works.
生活成本是这个问题的核心,尤其是住房。但去观看这个视频,看看我们是否能在不破坏经济的情况下让住房变得可负担。请继续学习金钱是如何运作的。