And right now, there's basically nowhere in the world where these urgently needed plans

现在，世界上基本上没有任何地方迫切需要

for phasing out the fossil system while phasing in the clean energy system exist.

在逐步淘汰化石能源系统的同时，逐步引入清洁能源系统。

When we talk about climate goals, the question I like to ask is,

当我们谈论气候目标时，我想问的问题是，

“If we actually believed we were going to succeed, what would we need to be doing right now?”

“如果我们真的相信我们会成功，我们现在需要做什么?”

The time between now and success is where this gets real and very difficult.

从现在到成功的这段时间是非常真实并且困难的时候。

Sara Hastings-Simon and I call this the mid-transition.

莎拉·黑斯廷斯西蒙和我都称这为过渡中期。

And even under a best-case scenario, it will probably last for decades.

即使在最好的情况下，这种情况也可能持续几十年。

During the mid-transition, the clean energy system and the fossil energy system are both

在过渡中期，清洁能源系统和化石能源系统

too small to fulfill all of the energy needs we have,

都太微小了，无法满足我们所有的能源需求，

but big enough that they can't really operate without constraining each other.

但又足够大，以至于它们在不相互制约的情况下无法真正运行。

Also, the mid-transition overlaps with the climate transition.

此外，过渡中期与气候过渡重叠。

This means we'd expect the systems we have now to become less functional

这意味着我们需要预计现在拥有的系统变得越来越不实用，

as they operate further and further outside of design parameters.

因为它们运行地越发超出设计参数了。

And it also means we don't entirely know what the new systems will need to be able to handle.

这也意味着我们不完全知道新系统需要能够处理什么。

Another issue here is that we'd also expect that the transitioning system will just

这里的另一个问题是，我们还指望过渡系统通常

generally work less well than either the stable starting point or the stable end point.

会比稳定的起始点或稳定的终点工作得更差。

As long as both systems are operating at scale, we can't optimize for either one's needs.

只要两个系统都在大规模运行，我们就无法根据其中任何一个的需求进行优化。

People are often willing to accept some level of problem in order to enable a shared future vision.

人们往往愿意接受某种程度的问题，以实现一个共同的未来愿景。

But trust in that vision will be extraordinarily fragile when it’s required for decades,

但对这一愿景的信任将非常脆弱，因为它需要几十年，

while climate impacts are making everything scarier

而气候影响正在使一切变得更加可怕，

and while we're visibly dismantling infrastructure that people remember as functional.

同时我们正在明显拆除人们记忆中的功能性基础设施。

As we plan, keeping a clear and focused commitment on people first and foremost

正如我们计划的那样，保持对人民的明确和重点承诺，

and ensuring that these are community-led projects will be critical.

并确保这些是社区主导的项目，这将是至关重要的。

One of the nice things about existing energy infrastructure is it exists.

现有能源基础设施的一个好处是它是存在的。

So you can go to a power plant break room and chat up people about

所以你可以去发电厂的休息室和人们聊天，询问他们

how long they expect to keep working or which bits of the plant site might need remediation.

希望继续工作多久，或者电站的哪些部分可能需要修复。

This means planning can be very, very specific and guided by the expertise of people that are in these places.

这意味着规划可以非常具体，并有专业人士的知识指导。

Who needs a job if the power plant closes?

如果电厂关闭了，谁还需要工作?

Does everyone in town have safe temperatures in their homes?

镇上的每个人家里都有适宜的温度吗?

Which gas stations need to stay open longer than they're profitable to make sure that

哪些加油站的营业时间需要超过盈利时间，

everybody can get to work while alternative transportation systems mature?

以确保在替代运输系统成熟时每个人都能上班?

How much extra funding do you need for the library if tax revenues start to decline?

如果税收开始下降，图书馆需要额外的多少资金?

Although good transition plans need to be deeply community-embedded,

虽然良好的过渡计划需要深入社区，

the scale and the impact of the energy system demands some level of centralized coordination.

但能源系统的规模和影响需要某种程度的集中协调。