Each of these data points could, of course, have multiple causes. But together they point in a worrisome direction: We may be in the midst of a trust recession.
当然,这些数据中的每一个都可能有多重原因,但它们共同指向了一个令人担忧的方向:我们可能正处于信任衰退之中。
Trust is to capitalism what alcohol is to wedding receptions: a social lubricant.
信任之于资本主义,犹如酒水之于婚宴,是一种社会润滑剂。
In low-trust societies (Russia, southern Italy), economic growth is constrained. People who don’t trust other people think twice before investing in, collaborating with, or hiring someone who isn’t a family member (or a member of their criminal gang).
在低信任度的社会(俄罗斯、意大利南部),经济增长受到限制。不信任他人的人在投资、合作或雇佣非家庭成员(或犯罪团伙成员)之前都会三思而后行。
The concept may sound squishy, but the effect isn’t. The economists Paul Zak and Stephen Knack found, in a study published in 1998, that a 15 percent bump in a nation’s belief that “most people can be trusted” adds a full percentage point to economic growth each year.
这个概念可能听起来很模糊,但其效果却很显著。经济学家保罗·扎克和斯蒂芬·克纳克在1998年发表的一项研究中发现,如果一个国家“大多数人都是可以信任的”的信念增加15%,每年会给经济增长带来整整一个百分点的增长。
That means that if, for the past 20 years, Americans had trusted one another like Ukrainians did, our annual GDP per capita would be $11,000 lower; if we had trusted like New Zealanders did, it’d be $16,000 higher.
这意味着,如果在过去20年里,美国人如乌克兰人那样不信任彼此,我们的年人均GDP将减少1.1万美元;如果我们如新西兰人那样信任彼此,年人均GDP就会多出1.6万美元。
“If trust is sufficiently low,” they wrote, “economic growth is unachievable.”
“如果信任度太低,”他们写道,“经济增长就无法实现。”
If you can rely on people to do what they say they’re going to do—without costly coercive mechanisms to make them dependable—a lot of things become possible, argued Francis Fukuyama in his 1995 book, Trust.
弗朗西斯·福山在他1995年出版的《信任》一书中指出,如果你能信任人们去做他们说要做的事,而不是斥巨资使用强制机制来让人们变得可靠,那么很多事情都将成为可能。
In the late 19th century, it was “highly sociable Americans” who developed the first large-scale corporations, effectively pooling the ideas, efforts, and interests of strangers. In the late 20th, some of the earliest iterations of the internet emerged from the same talent for association.
在19世纪后期,正是“善于交际的美国人”发展了第一批大型公司,有效地汇集了陌生人的想法、努力和利益。在20世纪后期,互联网的一些初期迭代(也是)出现于同样的人才联合。
Throughout nearly all of America’s history, its economy has benefited from a high degree of trust. But leaks in the trust reservoir have been evident since the ’70s.
纵观美国历史,其经济几乎一直得益于高度的信任度。但从70年代起,信任的蓄水池就明显开始泄漏了。
Trust in government dropped sharply from its peak in 1964, according to the Pew Research Center, and, with a few exceptions, has been sputtering ever since.
根据皮尤研究中心的数据,人们对政府的信任从1964年的顶峰急剧下降,而且除了少数例外,信任度从那以后一直在下滑。
This trend coincides with broader cultural shifts like declining church membership, the rise of social media, and a contentious political atmosphere.
这一趋势与更广泛的文化转变相吻合,比如教会成员减少、社交媒体的兴起,以及争论不休的政治氛围。