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One day, without warning or apparent cause, all of humanity's artificial satellites suddenly disappear.
如果有一天，在没人注意到的时候，所有人造卫星突然消失了。
The first to understand the situation are a handful of government and commercial operators.
最先察觉到这个状况的会是少数的政府和商业卫星用户。
But well before they have time to process what's happened, millions sitting on their couches become aware that something is amiss.
然而在他们还来不及会意的时候，千百万个坐在沙发上的人们就已察觉事情不太对劲。
TV that's broadcast from or routed through satellites dominate the market for international programming as well as some local channels,
通过卫星传送的国际性电视节目以及一些地方性的频道是卫星市场的主要用户，
so the disappearance causes immediate disruptions, worldwide.
所以人造卫星的消失会立即造成全球电视转播受到影响。
The next people affected are those traveling by air, sea, or land, as global positioning, navigation and timing services, have entirely ceased.
接着受影响的会是那些在使用空、海或陆上交通的人，因为全球定位、导航和显示时间的服务会完全停摆。
Pilots, captains, and drivers have to determine their locations using analog instruments and maps.
飞行员、船长、和司机需要用雷达和地图来得知他们所在的位置。
Aircraft, ships, and ground vehicles get stopped, grounded, or returned to port.
飞机、船只和陆运工具会终止、停飞、或是返回港口。
In the meantime, air traffic controllers have a difficult task on their hands to prevent plane crashes.
同时，空中交通管制人员会面临棘手的任务，就是预防飞机失事。
Within hours, most of the planet's traffic grinds to a halt. The effects aren't limited to entertainment and travel.
几小时内，地球上大部分的交通运输会停滞。影响不仅限于娱乐和旅行。
All sorts of machines, from heating and cooling systems to assembly lines,
所有机器，从冷、暖气系统到生产线，
rely on super-accurate satellite-based timing systems, and many have little-to-no backup options.
都依赖极为准确的卫星时间系统，且很多几乎没有备案。
Stoplights and other traffic control systems stop synchronizing,
红绿灯和其他交通管制系统停止同步，
so police and good Samaritans step in to direct the remaining cars and prevent as many accidents as possible.
所以警察和见义勇为的人会协助指挥还在行驶的车辆，尽量避免车祸发生。
The most catastrophic impact is yet to come. Because in the next few hours, the world economy shuts down.
最灾难性的影响还未到来。在接下来的几小时之内，全球经济会停摆。
Satellite-based timestamps play a critical part in everything from credit card readers and stock exchanges to the systems that keep track of transactions.
从信用卡卡片阅读机和股票交易到记录转账的系统，卫星时间在所有事情中都扮演着重要的角色。
People are unable to withdraw cash or make electronic payments.
人们无法提领现金或使用电子支付。
Logistics and supply chains for crucial goods like food and medicine fragment, leaving people to survive on whatever is locally available.
食物和药品等重要货品的物流和供应链中断，使人们必须凭借当地可取得的东西维生。
Most countries declare a state of emergency and call on the military to restore order.
大部分的国家会宣布进入紧急状态，且调动军队来恢复秩序。
That may take quite a while. Most navigation and communication systems are no longer operational, so military chains of command may be in disarray.
那可能会花不少时间。大部分的导航和通讯系统将无法使用，所以军队的指挥系统会相当混乱。
Many troops, including those actively deployed, are left to their own devices.
许多部队，包含在外执行任务者，会没有人指挥，各管各的。
Commanders of nuclear submarines and missile control centers wonder if the disruption is the result of a hostile attack.
核子潜艇和飞弹管制中心的指挥官无从得知中断的情形是否为恶意攻击。
What sorts of decisions do they make with partial information?
根据不完整的信息，他们会下什么决定？
Even in the best-case scenario, our civilization gets set back by decades at the very least.
即使是在最佳情况下，我们的文明至少会倒退几十年。
That's because, despite being a relatively new phenomenon, satellites have quickly replaced more traditional long range technologies.
那是因为人造卫星快速地取代了传统的长程技术，尽管这是一个新现象。
The combination of global positioning and internet has allowed for near-instant signals that can be synchronized worldwide.
全球定位和因特网的结合使得近乎于实时的讯号可以全球同步。
Many systems we use daily have been built upon this foundation.
许多我们日常使用的系统都是建立在这个基础上。
Going back to the communication systems of the mid-20th century would not be a simple matter.
倒退到20世纪中期的通讯技术不是件简单的事。
In many cases, they'd have to be rebuilt from the ground up.
在许多案例中，他们会需要从零开始重建。
While the sudden disappearance in this thought experiment is unlikely, there are two very real scenarios that could lead to the same results.
在这种想象实验中卫星突然消失的情况不太可能发生，但有两种非常真实的情境可能导致这样的结果。
The first is a solar flare so strong it fries satellite circuitry -- as well as many other devices and power grids around the world.
第一个情况是强烈的日闪焰使卫星的电路以及全球各地许多设备和电网因过热而损坏。
And the second is an orbital chain reaction of collisions.
第二种情况是卫星在轨道上碰撞所产生的连环效应。
With about 7,500 metric tons of defunct spacecraft, spent boosters, and discarded equipment
约有7500公吨故障的宇宙飞船、使用过的推进器和废弃的设备
orbiting our planet at relative speeds up to 56,000 kilometers per hour, even small objects can be highly destructive.
以高达每小时56000公里的相对速度绕着地球运行，此时即使是小小的物体也可以有很大的破坏性。
A single collision in space could create thousands of new pieces of debris, leading to a chain reaction.
太空中的一个碰撞可能制造数以千计的新碎片，引起连锁效应。
Space is huge, but many of the thousands of satellites currently in orbit share the same orbital highways for their specific purposes.
宇宙很大，但正在轨道上运行、数以千计的卫星中，有很多为了特定的目的，共享相同的高速轨道。
And since most objects sent to space are not designed with disposal in mind, these highways only become more congested over time.
并且因为大部分送上太空的物体都没有废弃处理的机制，这些高速轨道只会越来越拥挤。
The good news is, we can protect ourselves by studying our solar system,
好消息是，我们可以藉由研究太阳系来保护自己，
creating backup options for our satellite networks, and cooperating to avoid an orbital tragedy of the commons.
以及为卫星网络设计备案，并共同合作，避免轨道面临共有财悲剧。
The space kilometers above our heads is like our forests, the ocean's biodiversity and clean air:
好几公里之上的太空就像是我们的森林、海洋生物多样性和干净的空气，
If we don't treat it as a finite resource, we may wake up one day to find we no longer have it at all.
如果我们不将它视为有限资源，有一天我们可能会突然发现它已经不见了。
