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And then, our own inability to get things done.
还有，我们也没有能力做好自己的事情。
Political partisanship has gotten to the point where it makes it difficult to do routine things- to vote routine legislation through, to do all the things that a government and a society has to do almost automatically or reflexively.
政治党派之争已经到了难以进行例行公事的地步--无法投票通过例行立法，无法做到政府和社会几乎自动或本能地必须做到的所有事情。
And when we struggle to do those things, then external risks like COVID-19, or God forbid, a conflict or economic challenge, have much greater impact on us.
当我们连做这些事情都很吃力时，外部风险，如新冠肺炎，或者上帝保佑，一场冲突或经济挑战，对我们的影响要大得多。
And it comes back to the idea that the greatest risk to us is us because we don't do those things to strengthen our own defenses.
这就回到了一开始的观点，我们最大的风险就是我们自身，因为我们没有做那些事去加强自身的防御。
So how do you build that resilience?
那要如何建立这种韧性呢？
How do you make the risk immune system work?
如何让风险免疫系统发挥作用？
If you're trying to strengthen an organization, you have several risk control factors which will never be perfect.
如果你想要加强一个组织，会有几个永远都不会完美的风险控制因素。
They'll never be all as strong as you'd like them to be, but they work together.
它们永远不会像你希望的那样强大，但它们会一起起效。
So, for example, one of the ways we can check our strategy or our plan is to check our assumptions.
因此，例如，我们检查战略或计划的方法之一是检查我们的假设。
We have certain facts, things that don't change.
有一些事实，一些不会改变的事情。
And we can accept those as facts for our planning.
在规划的时候，我们可以接受这些事实。
And then we have things we're just not sure of, things in the future, typically: What will be market conditions?
还有一些我们无法确定的东西，关于未来，尤其是：市场状况会怎么样？
What will interest rates be? What will the availability of certain people to hire be?
利率会是多少？有多少人可以雇佣？
And we have to make assumptions because you have to have something to work with to develop your plan.
我们必须做出假设，因为你制定计划的时候，必须要有依据。
But the danger is those assumptions could be wrong.
但危险在于，这些假设可能是错误的。
So do an assumptions check.
所以，要检查我们的假设。
Go back to your plan, pull out all of the key assumptions you based it on because, often, you make the assumptions under some conditions, and things change over time.
回头去看看你的计划，去掉那些你作为依据的重要假设，因为你往往是在某一特定条件下做出的假设，但事情是变化的。
And those assumptions now are much less valid.
现在那些假设已经不那么成立了。
They may have changed, or you just may know more.
它们可能改变了，或者你知道了更多信息。
In military operations, that's one of the most dangerous things- is to have misleading assumptions or invalid assumptions, and the same is true in business.
在军事行动中，这是最危险的事情之一--有误导性的假设或无效的假设，在商业中也是如此。
If you strengthen your risk immune system, when the unexpected happens, what you should expect- you're gonna be more resilient.
如果你增强自己的风险免疫系统，当意外发生时，你应该预料到--你会变得更有韧性。
Your people will be more mentally and physically prepared to respond to that.
你的人民也会在身体和精神上有更好的准备去面对它。
And that's the payoff.
这就是回报。
