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“Will Artificial Intelligence ever replace humans?” is a hotly debated question these days.
“人工智能会取代人类吗？”是这几天热议的问题。
Some people claim computers will eventually gain superintelligence, be able to outperform humans on any task, and destroy humanity.
一些人声称计算机最终将获得超级智能，能够在任何任务上胜过人类，并摧毁人类。
Other people say “don't worry, AI will just be another tool we can use and control, like our current computers.”
另一些人说:“别担心，人工智能只是我们可以使用和控制的另一种工具，就像我们现在的电脑一样。”
So we've got physicist and AI-researcher Max Tegmark back again
所以，我们请到了物理学家和人工智能研究人员Max Tegmark回来，
to share with us the collective takeaways from the recent Asilomar conference on the future of AI that he helped organize
与我们分享他参与组织的关于人工智能未来的最近Asilomar会议的集体收获
–and he's going to help separate AI myths from AI facts.
—他将帮助区分人工智能神话和人工智能事实。
Hello!
你好！
First of all, Max, machines (including computers) have long been better than us at many tasks,
首先，麦克斯，长期以来，机器(包括计算机)在很多任务上都比我们强，
like arithmetic, or weaving, but those are often repetitive and mechanical operations.
比如算术，或者织布，但这些通常都是重复性和机械性的操作。
So why shouldn't I believe that there are some things that are simply impossible for machines to do as well as people?
那么，为什么我不能相信有些事情是机器根本不可能做得像人一样好呢?
Say making minutephysics videos, or consoling a friend?
比如制作一分钟物理学视频，或者安慰朋友?
Well, we've traditionally thought of intelligence as something mysterious that can only exist in biological organisms, especially humans.
嗯，我们传统上认为智力是一种神秘的东西，只能存在于生物有机体中，尤其是人类。
But from the perspective of modern physical science,
但从现代物理科学的角度来看，
intelligence is simply a particular kind of information processing and reacting performed by particular arrangements of elementary particles moving around,
智能只是一种特殊的信息处理和反应，通过基本粒子的特定排列在周围运动，
and there's no law of physics that says it's impossible to do that kind of information processing better than humans already do.
没有物理定律说不可能做这种信息处理比人类做得更好。
It's not a stretch to say that earthworms process information better than rocks,
毫不夸张地说，蚯蚓处理信息的能力强于岩石，
and humans better than earthworms, and in many areas, machines are already better than humans.
人类处理信息的能力强于蚯蚓，而且在许多领域，机器已经强于人类。
This suggests we've likely only seen the tip of the intelligence iceberg,
这表明我们可能只看到了智能冰山的一角，
and that we're on track to unlock the full intelligence that's latent in nature and use it to help humanity flourish - or flounder.
我们正在逐步释放大自然中潜在的全部智慧，用它来帮助人类繁荣——或者挣扎。
So how do we keep ourselves on the right side of the “flourish or flounder” balance?
那么，我们怎样才能在“繁荣或挣扎”的天平中保持正确的平衡呢？
What, if anything, should we really be concerned about with superintelligent AI?
如果说有什么不同的话，那就是我们真的应该担心超智能人工智能吗？
Here's what has many top AI researchers concerned: not machines or computers turning evil, but something more subtle: superintelligence that simply doesn't share our goals.
这是许多顶尖人工智能研究人员担心的问题：不是机器或计算机变得邪恶，而是一些更微妙的东西：与我们的目标不同的超级智能。
If a heat-seeking missile is homing in on you, you probably wouldn't think: “No need to worry, it's not evil, it's just following its programming.”
如果一枚热追踪导弹瞄准了你，你可能不会想:“不用担心，它不是恶魔，它只是按照自己的程序运行。”
No, what matters to you is what the heat-seeking missile does and how well it does it, not what it's feeling, or whether it has feelings at all.
不，对你来说重要的是热追踪导弹能做什么以及它做得多好，而不是它的感觉，或者它是否有感觉。
The real worry isn't malevolence, but competence.
真正担心的不是恶意，而是能力。
A superintelligent AI is by definition very good at attaining its goals, so the most important thing for us to do is to ensure that its goals are aligned with ours.
从定义上讲，超级智能人工智能非常擅长实现自己的目标，所以我们要做的最重要的事情是确保它的目标与我们的目标一致。
As an analogy, humans are more intelligent and competent than ants,
打个比方，人类比蚂蚁更聪明、更有能力。
and if we want to build a hydroelectric dam where there happens to be an anthill, there may no malevolence involved, but, well.
如果我们想在恰好有蚁丘的地方修建水电站大坝，可能不会有恶意，但是，嗯
Too bad for the ants.
对蚂蚁来说太糟糕了。
Cats and dogs, on the other hand, have done a great job of aligning their goals with the goals of humans
另一方面，猫和狗在使它们的目标与人类的目标保持一致方面做得很好
– I mean, even though I’m a physicist, I can't help think kittens are the cutest particle arrangements in our universe.
-我的意思是，尽管我是一名物理学家，我还是忍不住认为小猫是我们宇宙中最可爱的粒子排列。
If we build superintelligence, we’d be better off in the position of cats and dogs than ants.
如果我们建立了超智能，我们站在猫狗的位置比站在蚂蚁的位置上要好
Or better yet, we'll figure out how to ensure that AI adopts our goals rather than the other way around.
或者更好的是，我们将弄清楚如何确保人工智能采用我们的目标，而不是反过来。
And when exactly is superintelligence going to arrive?
超级智能到底什么时候会到来?
When do we need to start panicking?
我们什么时候需要开始恐慌？
First of all, Henry, superintelligence doesn't have to be something negative.
首先，亨利，超智力不一定是消极的。
In fact, if we get it right, AI might become the best thing ever to happen to humanity.
事实上，如果我们做得对，人工智能可能会成为发生在人类身上的最好的事情。
Everything I love about civilization is the product of intelligence,
我热爱文明的一切都是智能的产物，
so if AI amplifies our collective intelligence enough to solve today's and tomorrow's greatest problems, humanity might flourish like never before.
所以如果人工智能能充分放大我们的集体智慧，解决今天和明天的最大问题，人类可能会以前所未有的方式蓬勃发展。
Second, most AI researchers think superintelligence is at least decades away.
其次，大多数人工智能研究人员认为，超级智能至少还需要几十年的时间。
Buuuut the research needed to ensure that it remains beneficial to humanity (rather than harmful) might also take decades, so we need to start right away.
但是，确保它仍然对人类有益(而不是有害)所需的研究可能还需要几十年的时间，所以我们需要立即开始。
For example, we'll need to figure out how to ensure machines learn the collective goals of humanity, adopt these goals for themselves, and retain the goals as they keep getting smarter.
例如，我们需要弄清楚如何确保机器学习人类的集体目标，为自己采用这些目标，并在它们变得越来越聪明时保留这些目标。
And what about when our goals disagree?
如果我们的目标不一致怎么办？
Should we vote on what the machine's goals should be?
我们应该投票决定机器的目标是什么吗?
Just do whatever the president wants?
总统想做什么就做什么?
Whatever the creator of the superintelligence wants?
不管超级智能的创造者想要什么？
Let the AI decide?
让人工智能来决定吗？
In a very real way, the question of how to live with superintelligence is a question of what sort of future we want to create for humanity.
从一个非常真实的角度来看，如何与超智能共存的问题是我们想要为人类创造什么样的未来的问题。
Which obviously shouldn't just be left to AI researchers, as caring and socially skilled as we are.
这显然不应该只留给像我们一样有爱心和社交技能的人工智能研究人员。
Thanks, Max!
谢谢，麦克斯！
So, uh, how do I get involved to make sure we don't end up living in a superintelligence-powered dictatorship?
那么，呃，我要怎么做才能确保我们不会最终生活在一个超智能的独裁政权里呢？
At the Future of Life Institute ( which is sponsoring this video),
在未来生活研究所(赞助这段视频)，
we've built a site where you can go to answer questions, ask questions, and otherwise contribute your thoughts to help shape the future of AI policy and research.
我们建立了一个网站，你可以在这里回答问题，提出问题，或者贡献你的想法，帮助塑造未来的人工智能政策和研究。
Link's in the video description.
视频描述里有链接。
Awesome. Thanks again!
太棒了。再次感谢！
