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On November 9th, 2016, around 2:30 a.m. Eastern Time, Donald Trump won enough electoral votes to become the President-elect of the United States of America. Trump's victory was unprecedented, unexpected, and for many on both sides of the political spectrum, unbelievable.
2016年11月9日东部时间凌晨2点半左右，唐纳德·特朗普赢得了足够多的的选票，成为美利坚合众国总统当选人。特朗普的胜利是前所未有的、出乎意料的，而且对两党的许多人来说是难以置信的。
Seemingly everything we thought we knew about polling, the media, and the population itself was wrong. So how did Donald Trump win the 2016 Election? Well, one major upset was the inability to predict which candidate each demographic would prefer.
我们以为自己对民调、媒体和民众本身所了解的一切似乎都是错误的。那么，唐纳德·特朗普是如何赢得2016年大选的？一个大冷门在于无法预测每个人更喜欢哪名候选人。
According to preliminary exit polls, Trump carried mostly white, male voters, while Clinton carried minority female voters. But a smaller proportion of white, black, hispanic, and Asian-American voters cast their ballots for the Democratic candidate in 2016 than in 2012, something polls were unable to predict. Minority voters were expected to make up for Clinton's lower performance among white male voters, especially following xenophobic, and arguably racist rhetoric from Trump.
根据初步的选举后民调显示，特朗普的得票主要来自白人和男性选民，而克林顿的得票则来自少数族裔和女性选民。但与2012年相比，2016年投票给民主党候选人的白人、黑人、西班牙裔和亚裔美国选民比例较小，而民调是无法预测这一点的。预计少数族裔选民将弥补克林顿在白人男性选民中的较差表现，尤其是在特朗普发表排外、甚至可以说是种族主义言论之后。
Clinton's inability to garner enough votes from these demographics is part of the reason Clinton narrowly lost in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Since 1992 these states have been Democratic presidential strongholds, but they have large populations of rural and working class white voters, who make up a majority of Trump's base.
克林顿无法从这些人口统计数据中获得足够的选票，这也是克林顿在威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州和密歇根州等关键州以微弱劣势落败的部分原因。自1992年以来，这些州一直是民主党总统候选人的大本营，但他们有大量农村和工人阶级白人选民，特朗普支持者的大多数都是由这些选民组成。
In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in Wisconsin by seven points, whereas this year, Clinton lost by just a single point. Clinton's problem in 2016 was that she simply did not gather the Democratic support she needed, while Trump's base stayed consistent.
2012年，巴拉克·奥巴马在威斯康星州以7个百分点的优势击败米特·罗姆尼，而今年克林顿仅以1个百分点的劣势落败。2016年，克林顿的问题在于，她根本没有得到她所需要的民主党支持，而特朗普的支持根基则保持稳定。
Between 2012 and 2016 nearly an identical number of Wisconsin voters voted Republican, 1.4 million, while roughly a quarter of a million fewer people voted Democrat. When more people vote, Democrats tend to win, and in this election, more people didn't vote Democrat. In 2008, nearly ten million more voted Democratic than Republican, in 2012 that number was down to six million, and in 2016 the two parties had nearly the same number of voters.
比较2012年和2016年的选票，几乎相同数量的威斯康星州选民投给了共和党，也就是140万人，而投票支持民主党的人数减少了25万人左右。当更多的人投票时，民主党往往会获胜，而在这次选举中，更多的人并没有投票给民主党。2008年，给民主党投票的选民比给共和党投票的选民多出近1000万人；2012年，这一数字下降到600万；到了2016年，投票给两党的选民人数几乎相同。
