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The Philippines: an idyllic country with some of the clearest water and bluest skies on the planet.
菲律宾：一个田园般的国家，这里拥有着这个星球上最清澈的水，最蓝的天。
It is also the epicenter of one of the fastest-growing HIV epidemics in the world.
但是它也是这个世界上艾滋病蔓延最快的地区之一。
On the surface, it seems as if we are just a late bloomer.
表面上看，我们似乎只是在这个方面还不成熟。
However, the reasons for our current epidemic are much more complicated and may foreshadow a global resurgence of HIV.
但其实，造成我们目前流行病的原因远比我们所想的要复杂得多，还有可能预示着艾滋病病毒的全球性复苏。
While overall new cases of HIV continue to drop in the world,
虽然世界上新感染的艾滋病病毒病例在持续下降，
this trend may be short-lived when the next wave of more aggressive and resistant viruses arrive.
但当下一波更具有侵略性和抵抗力的病毒到来时，这种趋势有可能是短暂的。
HIV has a potential to transform itself into a new and different virus every time it infects a cell.
艾滋病病毒有可能在每次感染细胞时，转变成一种不同的新型病毒。
Despite the remarkable progress we've made in reversing the epidemic,
尽管我们在扭转这一流行病方面取得了显著的进展，
the truth is that we are just a few viral mutations away from disaster.
但事实上，我们离灾难只有几个病毒变异。
To appreciate the profound way in which HIV transforms itself every time it reproduces, let's make a genetic comparison.
想要理解艾滋病病毒在每次繁殖过程中是如何改变自身的，我们可以来做一个基因比较。
If we look at the DNA variation among humans of different races from different continents,
如果我们观察来自不同大陆、不同人种之间的DNA变异，
the actual DNA difference is only 0.1 percent.
实际DNA差异仅为百分之0.1。
If we look at the genetic difference between humans, great apes, and rhesus macaques, that number is seven percent.
如果我们观察人类、类人猿和猕猴之间的基因差异，差异值为百分之7。
In contrast, the genetic difference between HIV subtypes from different patients may be as much as 35 percent.
相比之下，不同患者的艾滋病病毒亚型之间基因差异值可能高达百分之35。
Within a person infected with HIV,
在感染艾滋病病毒的人中，
the genetic difference between an infecting mother virus and subsequent daughter viruses has been shown to be as much as five percent.
感染母病毒的人，与随后感染子病毒的人，基因差异值高达百分之5。
This is the equivalent of a gorilla giving birth to a chimpanzee,
这就好比一只大猩猩生下了一只黑猩猩，
then to an orangutan, then to a baboon, then to any random great ape within its lifetime.
然后生下一只猩猩，然后又生下一只狒狒，生下任何可能的猿类动物。
There are nearly 100 subtypes of HIV, with new subtypes being discovered regularly.
艾滋病病毒有将近100种亚型，新的亚型被定期发现。
HIV in the developed world is almost all of one subtype: subtype B.
在发达国家，艾滋病病毒大多都是一种亚型：亚型B。
Mostly everything we know and do to treat HIV is based on studies on subtype B,
我们所知与所做的治疗，都是基于对B型病毒的研究，
even though it only accounts for 12 percent of the total number of cases of HIV in the world.
尽管这种B型病毒在世界范围内只占艾滋病病毒病例总数的百分之12。
But because of the profound genetic difference among different subtypes,
但是由于在不同亚型之间存在着明显的基因差异，
some subtypes are more likely to become drug-resistant or progress to AIDS faster.
一些亚型会更具有抗药性，也有可能更快地发展为艾滋病。
We discovered that the explosion of HIV cases in the Philippines
我们发现，菲律宾艾滋病的病例激增的原因，
is due to a shift from the Western subtype B to a more aggressive Southeast Asian subtype AE.
是因为病毒从西方的B型转变为了更具攻击性的东南亚AE型病毒。
We are seeing younger and sicker patients with high rates of drug resistance.
我们发现那些更年轻、病得更严重的病人，他们的耐药率很高。
Initial encroachment of this subtype is already occurring in developed countries, including Australia, Canada and the United States.
在一些发达国家中，一些亚型的初始侵害已经在发生，包括澳大利亚、加拿大、美国。
We may soon see a similar explosion of cases in these countries.
我们有可能很快就会在这些国家中看到相同病例的增激。
And while we think that HIV is done and that the tide has turned for it,
当我们认为艾滋病病毒已经被遏制，而且趋势也有所扭转，
just like with real tides, it can come right back.
就像真的控制住了一样，但它依然有可能再复发。
In the early 1960s, malaria was on the ropes.
在上世纪六十年代初，疟疾即将绝迹。
As the number of cases dropped, people and governments stopped paying attention.
随着病例数量的减少，人们及政府也对此放松警惕。
The result was a deadly resurgence of drug-resistant malaria.
造成的结果是抗药性疟疾死灰复燃。
We need to think of HIV not as a single virus that we think we've figured out,
我们不应该把艾滋病病毒视为我们所认为已经发现的单一病毒，
but as a collection of rapidly evolving and highly unique viruses, each of which can set off the next deadly epidemic.
而是应该把它视为一个快速进化、极其独特的病毒集合体，每一种病毒都会引发下一个致命的流行病。
We are incorporating more powerful and new tools to help us detect the next deadly HIV strain,
我们正在研发更有效的新器械，来帮助我们检测下一个致命的艾滋病病毒株，
and this needs to go hand in hand with urgent research on the behavior and proper treatment of non-B subtypes.
这需要我们对非B型病毒的特征，以及适当的治疗方案同时加紧速度进行研究。
We need to convince our governments and our funding agencies that HIV is not yet done.
我们要让我们的政府以及资助机构意识到，艾滋病病毒还没有完全遏制。
Over 35 million people have died of HIV. We are on the verge of an AIDS-free generation.
有超过3500万的人死于艾滋病。我们即将迎来无艾滋的时代。
We need to pay attention. We need to remain vigilant and follow through.
我们需要关注艾滋病并保持警惕，然后一直坚持到底。
Otherwise, millions more will die. Thank you.
否则，仍会有数以百万计的人因艾滋病死去。谢谢！
