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Welcome to Crash Course Economics. I'm Adriene Hill.
欢迎收看经济速成班，我是埃德因·希尔。
And I'm Jacob Clifford.
我是雅各布·克利福德。
Economics is about choices, and how we use our scarce resources.
经济学讲的是选择以及如何利用我们的稀缺资源。
It's not just about producing and consuming, it can also be about conserving.
它不仅仅关于生产和消费，还与节约有关。
Maybe counter-intuitively, economics has a lot to add to discussions
也许与直觉相反，经济学有很多可以补充讨论的地方，
of how we can balance our desire for prosperity and growth with the need to protect our natural resources.
如我们如何平衡自己对繁荣增长的渴望与保护自然资源的需求。
Today we're going to look at environmental economics
今天我们将着眼于环境经济学，
and think about how economics can help us keep our planet livable.
思考经济学如何帮助我们保持地球宜居。
Pollution is going to happen,
污染总在发生，
it's a by-product of human existence and there is no way that we can get rid of it all.
它是人类存在的副产品，我们根本无法摆脱它。
In fact, one of the ways we know about earliest the societies is by looking at their trash heap,
事实上，我们了解最早期社会的方法之一就是看他们的垃圾堆，
something archaeologists call middens, because it sounds better than "dumps".
考古学家们称它是“middens”，因为它比“dumps”好听。
But the fact that humans produce all kinds of waste doesn't mean that
但是事实上，人类产生各种垃圾并不意味着
we have to embrace islands of trash floating in the oceans,
我们必须拥抱漂浮在海洋中的垃圾岛，
a layer of smog over industrial cities, and toxic chemicals in our rivers.
工业城市上空笼罩的一层烟雾以及河流里的有毒化学物质。
For sake of simplicity though, we're going to focus on one type of pollution: carbon dioxide emissions.
不过为了简单起见，我们将关注一种污染：二氧化碳排放。
They're one of the primary greenhouse gases.
它们是主要的温室气体之一。
These greenhouse gases basically blanket the earth and are causing climate change.
这些温室气体基本上覆盖了整个地球，导致气候发生变化。
CO2 levels are the highest they've been for millions years
现在的二氧化碳浓度达到了几百万年来的最高水平，
which is why environmentalists consider it a "planetary emergency".
因此环保主义者认为它是一个“地球危机”。
There is a lot of effort going into how to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere,
我们在如何把温室气体移出大气，
how to make cities more resilient to climate change,
让城市更适应气候变化等方面要做很多努力，
but in the interest of time we're going to focus on
但是由于时间问题，我们将重点关注
efforts to reduce the amount of new pollutants getting spewed into our atmosphere.
减少排放到大气中的新污染物数量的努力。
The economic solution is pretty simple.
经济解决方案相当简单。
Step one, identify the sources of the most air pollution. Done. We know exactly what it is.
第一步，确定最污染空气的来源。完成了。我们知道它具体是什么了。
It's factories that burn fossil fuels for energy,
来源是燃烧化石燃料获取能量的工厂，
industries that use oil and coal to produce things, and vehicles with internal combustion engines.
使用石油和煤生产产品的工业以及使用内燃机的交通工具。
Step two, decrease the supply of these technologies and products or decrease the demand for them.
第二步，减少这些技术和产品的供应或减少对它们的需求。
That's it, it's simple. But the implementation of these policies gets complicated.
就是这样，很简单。但这些政策的实施很复杂。
Let's look at decreasing supply.
我们来看看减少供应。
As we mentioned in the last video,
正如我们在上期视频中提到的，
one of the biggest problems with having countries independently enforce environmental regulations is the Tragedy of the Commons.
让国家独立执行环境法规的最大问题之一就是公地悲剧。
No one owns the atmosphere, so there is very little incentive for countries
没有人拥有大气，所以如果没有其他国家去做，一个国家很少有动机
to keep it clean and switch to expensive green technologies if no one else is going to.
保持大气清洁，并转换到昂贵的绿色技术上。
It's not like there is some global environmental police punishing countries for polluting.
全球环境警察惩罚污染国家的可能性极低。
While a country like Trinidad and Tobago has a huge carbon output per capita,
尽管特立尼达和多巴哥这样的国家人均碳排放量很高，
its small population means it's only producing a small fraction of global CO2.
但少量人口意味着它产生的二氧化碳只占全球总量的一小部分。
The other option is to decrease the demand for fossil fuels,
另一个选择是减少对化石燃料的需求，
possibly by finding alternate green energy sources.
可能方法是寻找替代的绿色能源。
But we're already very reliant on fossil fuels, and markets have made the production of those fuels very cheap.
但我们已经非常依赖化石燃料了，而且市场让这些燃料的生产变得非常便宜。
So any new type of energy will have a hard time beating the established system.
因此，任何一种新型能源都将难以击败已建立的系统。
So we can either wait patiently for new technologies to develop and get cheaper,
所以我们要么耐心等待新技术的发展及降价，
or we can speed up the process by manipulating markets with government subsidies, taxes and regulations.
要么通过政府补贴、税收和监管等方法操纵市场来加速这一进程。
In the case of pollution, there are long-term side effects, like climate change,
污染有长期的副作用，比如气候变化，
that consumers often don't take into account when they buy products.
但消费者在购买产品时通常不会考虑这一点。
Remember negative externalities?
还记得负外部性吗？
When the full cost of a product doesn't line up with the costs that manufacturers or consumers pay.
它是指产品的全部成本与制造商或消费者支付的成本不一致。
Pollution represents a market failure, a situation where markets fail to produce the amount that society wants.
污染代表着市场失灵，即市场无法产生社会所需数量的情况。
To address this, some economists argue that government intervention is not only justified, but essential.
为了解决这个问题，一些经济学家认为，政府干预不仅合理，而且必要。
There are all kinds of different ways intervention can happen,
干预有很多种方式，
all of them meant to encourage producers and consumers to choose to pollute less.
所有这些措施都是为了鼓励生产者和消费者选择减少污染。
One solution is for the government to come out
一个解决办法是让政府出面，
and set very specific rules about how much specific industries can pollute.
并对具体行业的污染程度制定具体的规定。
Forget markets. You're gonna follow our pollution rules.
忘了市场吧，你将遵循我们的污染规定。
Another way governments encourage people to pollute less is by providing price incentives.
政府鼓励人们减少污染的另一种方式是提供价格刺激。
Those incentives can encourage individuals to make choices that are better for the environment.
这些刺激可以鼓励个体作出更利于环境的选择。
The government could add taxes to gasoline purchases,
政府可以对汽油购买增加税收，
or on the other hand, provide subsidies for people who drive electric cars.
或者在另一方面，为驾驶电动汽车的人们提供补贴。
Governments can also create permit markets, basically setting a limit on how much firms can pollute,
政府也可以建立许可证市场，基本规定企业污染的限度，
and allowing those firms to buy and sell pollution permits.
并允许这些企业买卖污染许可证。
You've probably heard these called "cap and trade".
你可能听说过这叫做“限额与交易”。
Proponents of cap and trade argue that it can successfully limit emissions,
它的支持者认为它可以成功地限制排放，
without creating hard and fast rules that might hinder economic growth.
而不用制定可能阻碍经济增长的硬性规定。
And governments can subsidize the development of a specific technology or industry,
政府可以资助特定技术或工业的发展，
in an effort to make that technology more competitive with the alternatives.
让这项技术与替代品相比更具有竞争力。
A country might help support the development of solar or wind energy.
国家可能帮助支持太阳能或风能的发展。
As of 2014, around 10% of the energy consumed in the United States came from renewable sources,
截至2014年，美国消耗的能源约有10%来自可再生能源，
which is pretty much in line with the global average.
这比全球平均水平高很多。
Current predictions are that by 2040 15% of the world energy consumption will come from renewable sources.
目前的预测是，到2040年，世界消耗能源的15%将来自可再生能源。
But alternative energy sources, for the most part, just aren't cheap enough yet,
但是在很大程度上，替代能源还不够便宜，
so the majority of our energy is likely to continue to come from non-renewable sources, at least for now.
所以至少目前为止，我们的大部分能源仍来自于非再生能源。
We don't have the time to sit back and wait for new technologies to get cheaper,
我们没有时间坐下来等待新技术降价，
and there's no guarantee that the technologies that the government picks will be cost effective.
而且政府挑选的技术也不能保证成本效益。
Perhaps the solution is not to get rid of fossil fuels,
也许解决办法不是摆脱矿物燃料，
but instead be more efficient with those fuels. But that has drawbacks, too.
而是让这些燃料更有效率。但这种方法也有缺点。
Some energy economists argue that
一些能源经济学家认为，
the expected gains from energy saving technologies are offset by something called the rebound effect.
节能技术带来的预期收益会被所谓的反弹效应抵消。
Let's go to the Thought Bubble.
我们去看“Thought Bubble”。
Let's say Hank uses a gallon of gas to drive to work everyday.
我们假设汉克开车去上班每天使用一加仑汽油。
Then, partially to help the planet but mostly to help his wallet,
然后，主要是为了省钱，也为了帮助地球，
he buys a new fuel efficient car that only takes half a gallon of gas for the same commute.
他新买了一辆省油车，同样的通勤路程只需半加仑汽油。
He saves money and there's less pollution. It is a win-win.
他既省了钱又减少了污染。这是一个双赢。
But the rebound effect says that the benefits of energy efficiency might be reduced as people change their behavior.
但反弹效应表明，随着人们行为的改变，能源效率的好处可能会减少。
With the money he saves, Hank might start driving more than he normally would
汉克可能会把省下来的钱用于比平时更多的车程上，
or he might go on a vacation in Hawaii.
也可能用于夏威夷度假。
That leads to more consumption and possibly even more emissions.
这将导致更多的消费甚至更多的排放。
Also, if greater fuel-efficiency makes driving less expensive
而且，更高的燃油效率会降低驾驶成本，
it might encourage more people to buy cars and increase the overall use of gasoline.
这可能会鼓励更多的人购买汽车，增加汽油的整体使用量。
And even if people didn't increase their driving, the new fuel efficiency could decrease the demand for gas,
即使人们没有增加车程，新的燃料效率也会减少天然气的需求，
making fossil fuels cheaper and more readily available for other uses.
导致化石燃料更便宜，更容易用于其他用途。
The possibility of the rebound effect doesn't mean we shouldn't invest in energy saving technologies.
反弹效应的可能性并不意味着我们不应该投资节能技术。
It just means that we have to keep in mind how consumers will behave.
它只代表着我们必须记住消费者的行为。
It's also the reason why it's important to have economists involved in the discussion about environmental policy.
这也是我们为什么让经济学家参与讨论环境政策的重要性。
The tools of economics can help analyze the incentives and figure out what might work best.
经济学的工具可以帮助我们分析激励机制，找出最有效的方法。
Thanks Thought Bubble.
感谢“Thought Bubble”。
Okay, so we've identified another problem.
好了，我们已经确定另一个问题了。
But before you get so angry that you kick over a barrel of oil and light it on fire,
但在你生气得踢倒一桶油并点燃它之前，
keep in mind that there is hope.
记住我们仍有希望。
Most countries are actively trying to address the problem of greenhouse gases.
多数国家都在积极地尝试解决温室气体的问题。
The international community has been trying for decades
几十年来，国际社会一直在试着
to work together to protect the environment with varying success.
共同努力保护环境，并取得了不同程度的成功。
There are international treaties that commit countries to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
国际条约让各国承诺减少温室气体的排放。
UN negotiations are underway to create a new climate change agreement,
联合国正在进行谈判，以达成新的气候变化协议，
that could be adopted in December 2015.
并可能会在2015年12月通过。
Both private companies and governments are also funding research into green technology.
私营企业和政府也都在资助绿色科技的研究。
In the U.S. the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 allocated billions to fund renewable energy.
在美国，2009年的《美国复苏与再投资法案》为可再生能源提供了数十亿美元的资金。
China is also vowing to clean things up, and, in fact, leads the world in renewable energy investment.
中国也承诺要清洁能源，事实上，它在可再生能源投资方面世界领先。
So, now that most countries recognize there is a problem,
所以，现在大多数国家都意识到了这个问题，
the hope is that they'll figure out a way, or more likely a lot of ways, to start addressing it.
希望他们能想出一个办法或者更多方式，开始着手解决这个问题。
Environmental economists say that is not just governments and producers that need to change, it's also consumers.
环境经济学家说，不仅仅是政府和生产者需要改变，消费者也需要改变。
Conserving and consuming more thoughtfully likely need to be a part of our daily lives if we want to protect the environment.
如果我们想保护环境的话，节约和消费更需要成为我们日常生活的一部分，
But just bringing our reusable grocery bags to the store isn't going to save the planet, even if it says it on the bag.
但是仅仅把可重复使用购物袋带进商店并不能拯救地球，即使袋子上这样写着。
Bigger and more costly interventions like improving insulation and changing thermostats might have more impact,
更大更昂贵的干预措施，如改善保温能力、改变恒温器可能会产生更大的影响，
but we need to recognize individual action alone isn't going to be enough.
但是我们需要认识到单独行动是不够的。
Industries, governments, and individuals; we're in this together.
行业、政府和个人要一起参与。
Thanks for watching, we'll see you next week.
感谢您的收看，我们下期见。
Crash Course Economics is made with the help of all these fine people.
经济速成班是由这群好心人制作的。
You can support Crash Course at Patreon,
你可以在Patreon上支持速成课程，
a voluntary subscription service where your support helps keep Crash Course free for everyone forever.
它是个自愿订阅平台，你可以让它们向所有人永远免费开放。
And you get great rewards! Thanks for watching and DFTBA.
并获得奖励。感谢您的收看，别忘了做个了不起的人！
