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Welcome to Crash Course: Economics, I'm Jacob Clifford.
欢迎收看经济速成班，我是雅各布·克利福德。
I'm Adriene Hill and today were talking about monetary policy.
我是埃德因·希尔。我们今天讲的是货币政策。
So each year, TIME magazine comes out with a list of the world's 100 most influential people.
《时代》杂志每年都会列出世界100位最有影响力的人物。
It includes heads of state, religious leaders, entrepreneurs,
其中包括政府首脑、宗教领袖、企业家、
artists and activists, singers and actors of the most famous and infamous.
艺术家和活动家，以及最著名和臭名昭著的歌手和演员。
There's one person on that list, someone who is arguably the most influential person on earth,
名单上有一个人可以说是地球上最有影响力的人，
that most people don't know.
但大多数人都不知道。
Their decisions, good or bad, likely impact billions of people, Janet Yellen.
她的决定好坏可能影响到数十亿人，她就是珍妮特·耶伦。
She steers the largest economy in the world.
她控制着世界上最大的经济体。
Janet Yellen is a big deal. And she's a big deal because of monetary policy.
珍妮特·耶伦是个大人物，她重要是因为货币政策。
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States, and it's commonly called "The Fed."
美国联邦储备委员会是美国的中央银行，通常称为“美联储”。
Europe has the European Central Bank or ECB, and other countries have institutions that play similar roles.
欧洲有欧洲央行(ECB)，其他国家也有类似功能的机构。
Most central banks have two important jobs.
大多数央行有两个重要功能。
First, they regulate and oversee the nation's commercial banks
首先，它们监管国家的商业银行
by making sure that banks have enough money in their reserve to avoid bank runs.
确保银行有足够的资金储备来避免银行挤兑。
Their second job, and the job we're gonna focus on today, is to conduct monetary policy
我们今天重点关注它们的第二个功能——引导货币政策，
which is increasing or decreasing the money supply to speed up or slow down the overall economy.
即增加或减少货币供应来加速或减缓整体经济。
Monetary policy is what makes The Fed and The Fed Chair so influential.
货币政策使得美联储和美联储主席有很大影响力。
Let's start with interest rates.
我们先从利率开始。
An interest rate is the price of borrowing money.
利率是借钱的代价。
When banks lend money, they expect to be repaid the amount they lent, which is called the principle,
银行贷款时，希望被偿还贷款金额，也就是本金，
and a percentage of the principle to cover inflation and to make some profit.
还希望得到弥补通胀损失和盈利的一个本金百分比。
That percentage is called the interest rate.
这个百分比就叫利率。
The number of car loans, student loans, home loans,
汽车贷款、学生贷款、住房贷款、
and business loans that get made depends on interest rates.
以及商业贷款取决于利率。
When interest rates are low, borrowers will find it easier to pay back loans
当利率低时，借款人发现偿还贷款很容易，
so they will borrow more and spend more.
于是他们会借得更多，花得也更多。
When interest rates are high, borrowers borrow less and therefore spend less.
当利率很高时，借款人会减少借贷，从而减少支出。
In the U.S., The Fed doesn't have the power to tell banks what interest rate to charge customers.
在美国，美联储没有权力告诉银行向客户收取多少利率。
So instead, The Fed manipulates interest rates by changing the money supply.
相反，美联储通过改变货币供应来操纵利率。
If The Fed increases the money supply, there'll be plenty of money for banks to loan out.
如果美联储增加货币供应，银行将有足够的资金贷款。
Borrowers will shop around for the best deal on a loan,
借款人将会购买最优惠的贷款，
and banks will be forced to lower interest rates
银行将被迫降低利率。
because they're gonna have to compete or else no one's gonna borrow from them.
因为他们必须竞争，否则没人会向他们借钱。
A decrease in money supply has the opposite effect.
货币供应减少会产生相反的效果。
Less money supply means the banks have less money to loan out,
货币供应减少意味着银行贷款减少，
so they're gonna try and get the highest interest rate possible.
于是他们尝试获得最高的利率。
So less money, higher interest rates.
所以货币减少，利率就高了。
If the central bank wants to speed up the economy, they can increase the money supply,
如果央行想要经济加速，他们可以增加货币供给，
which will decrease interest rates, and lead to more borrowing and spending.
从而降低利率，有更多的借贷和支出。
That's called Expansionary Monetary Policy.
这叫做扩张性货币政策。
If the central bank wants to slow down the economy, they decrease the money supply,
如果央行想要减缓经济增长，他们会减少货币供给，
less money available will increase interest rates and decrease spending.
货币减少导致利率增高，从而减少支出。
That's called Contractionary Monetary Policy.
这叫做紧缩性货币政策。
Here's some real life examples.
下面是一些现实生活中的例子。
After the Dot Com bust and then 9-11, the U.S. economy was in a slump or a recessionary gap.
在互联网泡沫破灭和911事件之后，美国经济陷入衰退。
Output was low, and unemployment was high.
产出低迷，失业率高涨。
To speed up the economy, The Fed boosted the money supply, which lowered interest rates.
为了加速经济增长，美联储增加了货币供应，导致利率降低了。
This made borrowing easier, which increased spending,
这使得借款更容易，从而增加了支出，
and as a result, the economy began growing again, albeit slowly.
结果，经济开始再次增长，尽管速度缓慢。
Here's another example. In the late 1970s, prices were rising up to 13% per year.
还有一个例子。在20世纪70年代晚期，价格每年上涨高达13%。
Inflation is usually more like two to four percent.
但通常的通货膨胀在2%到4%之间。
The Fed Chairman, Paul Volker, decreased the money supply, causing interest rates to shoot up.
于是美联储主席保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volker)减少了货币供应量，导致利率飙升。
People bought fewer homes and cars, and businesses invested less.
人们购买房屋和汽车的数量减少了，企业投资也减少了。
Contractionary Monetary Policy drove down inflation,
紧缩性货币政策拉低了通货膨胀，
but with the downside of increasing unemployment.
但另一方面增加了失业人数。
There are just no easy answers here... sorry.
这里没有简单的答案……对不起。
During The Great Depression though, The Fed blew it!
在大萧条时期，美联储搞砸了！
73 years later, Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke admitted,
73年后，美联储主席本·伯南克承认，
"We did it. We're very sorry. We won't do it again."
“我们做错了。我们非常抱歉。我们不会再犯了。”
So what did The Fed do wrong?
那么美联储做错了什么呢？
Well, there are two things that keep the banking system healthy, confidence and liquidity.
有两件事可以保持银行系统的健康：可信度和流动性。
When customers deposit money in a bank,
当客户将钱存入银行时，
they need to feel confident they're gonna get their money back.
他们要有信心能够把钱拿回来。
In the early years of The Great Depression, The Fed allowed several large bank to fail,
在大萧条早期，美联储允许几家大型银行倒闭，
which caused widespread panic and bank runs in other banks.
这引起了广泛的恐慌和银行挤兑。
The result was a third of all banks collapsed.
结果导致三分之一的银行倒闭。
The banks failed because they didn't have Liquid Assets,
银行倒闭是因为他们没有流动资产，
which is a fancypants way of saying the banks had stock, bonds, mortgages, but not cash money.
这是银行有股票、债券、抵押贷款，但没有现金的高级说法。
So when depositors rushed to take money out, the banks couldn't pay.
因此，当储户们冲过来取钱时，银行无法支付。
The Fed gets blamed for prolonging The Depression because it didn't give banks emergency loans,
美联储因为没有给银行紧急贷款而被指责延长了萧条期，
which would've increased the liquidity in banks and the money supply in general.
紧急贷款是增加银行流动性和一般货币供应的资金。
But how does a central bank change the money supply?
但央行是如何改变货币供应的呢？
In the U.S., there are three main ways.
美国有三种主要方法。
Let's go to the Thought Bubble...
我们来看“Thought Bubble”。
When you deposit money in a bank, the bank holds a portion of deposits and loans the rest out.
当你把钱存进银行时，银行持有一部分存款，其余的都贷出去。
This is called Fractional Reserve Banking.
这被称为部分准备金银行制度。
The fraction deposits banks are required to hold in reserves is conveniently called the Reserve Requirement.
银行被要求持有的一部分存款被称为法定准备金。
The first way The Fed can change the money supply is by changing that requirement.
美联储改变货币供应的第一种方法就是改变这一要求。
Decreasing the Reserve Requirement will increase the money supply,
降低法定准备金将增加货币供应量，
and increasing the Reserve Requirement decreases the money supply.
提高法定准备金则会降低货币供应量。
The Fed is the banker's bank, so if a commercial bank needs money, they can borrow from The Fed.
美联储是银行中的银行，所以如果商业银行需要钱，他们可以向美联储借钱。
The second thing The Fed can do to change the money supply
美联储改变货币供应的第二种方法
is to change the interest rate that it charges banks.
是改变银行收取的利率。
That interest rate is called the Discount Rate.
这种利率被称为贴现率。
Decreasing the Discount Rate will make it easier for banks to borrow, and that'll increase the money supply.
降低贴现率将使银行更容易借贷，从而增加货币供应量。
Increasing that rate will decrease the money supply.
增加这一利率将减少货币供应。
The third way to change the money supply is difficult
第三种改变货币供应的方法很困难，
because it requires Janet Yellen to get approval from the Illuminati, the secret cabal that runs the world.
因为它要求珍妮特·耶伦获得光明会的批准，后者是掌管世界的秘密组织。
Nah, I'm just kidding.
不，我只是在开玩笑。
The third method is called Open Market Operations.
第三种方法叫做公开市场操作。
This is when The Federal Reserve buys or sells short term government bonds.
就是美联储购买或出售短期政府债券。
Now a government bond, or something called a treasury bill,
现在的政府债券，或者说国库券，
is an IOU issued by the government that says, "I'll pay you back later."
是政府发行的一种借据，政府说：“我之后会还给你们。”
Banks hold those bonds because they earn interest and are generally less risky than stocks.
银行持有这些债券是因为它们能赚取利息，并且风险通常比股票小。
If The Fed buys these previously issued government bonds from a bank,
如果美联储从银行购买这些政府之前发行的债券，
it increases that bank's liquidity and increases the money supply.
将会增加银行的流动性，从而增加货币供应量。
If The Fed issues more bonds, the banks will have less liquidity and less money to loan out,
如果美联储发行更多债券，银行的流动性就会减少，贷款也会减少，
and that'll decrease the money supply.
这将减少货币供应。
In the U.S., deciding how many bonds to buy and sell is done by the Federal Open Market Committee.
在美国，联邦公开市场委员会决定购买和出售多少债券。
Thanks Thought Bubble!
感谢“Thought Bubble”！
With these options at its disposal, The Fed can increase or decrease the money supply pretty darn quick.
有了这些可供选择，美联储可以迅速增加或减少货币供应。
The option they use most often is Open Market Operations.
他们最常用的选择是公开市场操作。
During the 2008 financial crisis, when the economy was in severe recession,
在2008年金融危机期间，当经济陷入严重衰退时，
The Fed went straight to work, buying massive of bonds.
美联储直接购买大量债券，
Boosting the money supply and dropping interest rates to practically zero.
增加货币供应量，将利率几乎降至零。
But it wasn't enough, the economy was still in bad shape,
但这还不够，经济仍处于低迷状态，
so The Fed did something very uncommon in the history of central banks.
于是美联储做了一些央行历史上不同寻常的事情。
It increased its monetary stimulus through something called Quantitative Easing.
它通过量化宽松政策加大货币刺激力度。
We call it Q.E. at work because Q.E. rolls off the tongue more easily than Quantitative Easing.
我们之所以称之为“Q.E.”，是因为“Q.E.”比量化宽松更容易脱口而出。
Plus, who knows how to spell quantitative?
另外，谁知道如何拼写quantitative呢？
Basically it's when central banks buy up longer term assets from banks.
基本上就是央行从银行购买长期资产。
So not only was The Fed buying regular treasury bills,
美联储不仅购买普通短期国债，
it was also buying things like home loans aka Mortgage Backed Securities.
还购买房屋贷款、也就是抵押贷款支持证券。
They did all this with made-up money.
他们用造得钱做这些。
This Q.E. has raised worries about massive inflation.
这次的Q.E.引发了对大规模通胀的担忧。
When you add a lot of made-up money to the economy, prices can rise.
当你为经济增加大量货币时，价格就会上涨
Milton Friedman observed, "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon."
米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)注意到：“通货膨胀始终是一种货币现象。”
So if The Fed has been increasing the money supply steadily since 2008,
那么如果美联储自2008年以来一直稳步增加货币供应，
why has the actual inflation rate stayed so low?
为什么实际通货膨胀率会这么低？
Of course, as always, the answer is complicated.
当然和以往一样，答案是复杂的。
Many economists say it's because banks haven't loaned out the money.
许多经济学家说，这是因为银行没有把钱贷出去。
Remember, banks have to hold about 10% of their deposits in reserve.
记住，银行必须持有10%的存款准备金。
The other 90% is called Excess Reserves,
另外的90%被称为超额准备金，
pretty straightforward, which is basically the amount that banks are free to loan out.
简单地说，它基本上就是银行可以自由贷款的数额。
Under normal conditions, banks would prefer not to hold a lot of excess reserves
正常情况下，银行不愿持有过多的超额准备金
because holding money doesn't make money.
因为持有货币不能赚钱。
But since 2008, excess reserves skyrocketed.
但自2008年以来，超额准备金飙升。
This means that banks held the money, and it never really got into the system.
这意味着银行持有这些钱，但它从来没有真正进入系统。
Why? Some say it's the stricter lending regulations.
为什么？有人说这是更严格的贷款规定。
But also, borrowing a bunch of money for a house seemed a lot scarier.
而且借一大笔钱买房似乎更可怕。
Others suggest that low inflation in the U.S. is the result of uncertainty in Europe,
另一些人则认为，美国的低通胀是欧洲不确定性的结果，
and that's caused foreigners to hold dollars.
这种不确定性导致外国人持有美元。
Some argue that it's because the economy is still sputtering.
一些人认为这是因为经济仍在下滑。
One thing's for sure, as the economy continues to pick up speed,
有一点是肯定的，随着经济继续加速，
we'll see The Fed clamping down on the money supply to increase interest rates.
我们将看到美联储收紧货币供应以提高利率。
After all, it's The Fed's job to take away the punch bowl just as the party's getting started.
毕竟，在聚会开始时，美联储的职责就是拿走“潘趣酒”。
So now we've talked about the two main ways economists speed up or slow down the economy.
现在，我们讨论了经济学家加速或减缓经济增长的两种主要方式：
Fiscal policy, which is changing government spending or taxes,
改变政府开支或税收的财政政策
and now monetary policy, which is changing the money supply.
以及改变货币供应的货币政策。
In an ideal world, the economy would always be perfect, and we wouldn't need these tools.
在一个理想世界里，经济总是完美的，我们不需要这些工具。
But the world isn't perfect, so sometimes, intervention is necessary.
但是世界并不完美，所以有时候，干预是必要的。
So which one is better?
那么哪一个更好?
Well, like any clear, unambiguous question in economics, the answer is... it depends.
嗯，就像经济学中任何一个明确问题一样，答案是……视情况而定。
It depends on the severity of the slump.
它取决于衰退的严重程度。
Many economists argue that for your garden variety fluctuations, monetary policy is more effective.
许多经济学家认为，对于你花园的各种波动，货币政策更有效。
It's usually enacted quickly by experts whose only job is to focus on the state of the economy.
它通常是只专注经济状况的经济学家们很快会实施的措施。
But in a very severe downturn, fiscal policy might become much more effective.
但在非常严重的低迷时期，财政政策可能更加有效。
In 2008, the United States did both.
2008年，美国两项政策都做了。
It also depends on whether your country's central bank is tangled up in politics.
它还取决于国家的央行是否与政治纠缠不清。
The U.S. and many other developed nations have worked hard
美国和其他许多发达国家都在努力
to isolate their central banks from politicians who might be shortsighted.
将央行与可能目光短浅的政客隔离开来。
The result is that monetary policy generally works and doesn't have a lot of side effects.
其结果就是，货币政策总体上是有效的，没有太多副作用。
So the next time you see Janet Yellen in a magazine, listed as one of the most influential people,
所以你下次在杂志上看到最有影响力的人物之一——珍妮特·耶伦时，
you can shout, "Hey! I know who that is, and I know what she does!"
你可以喊“嘿，我知道她是谁，也知道她是做什么的！”
The people in your dentist office might freak out, but maybe not.
你牙医办公室里的人可能会抓狂，也许不会。
Maybe they watch Crash Course Economics.
或许他们在看经济速成班。
Thanks for watching, we'll see you next week.
感谢您的收看，我们下期见。
Thanks for watching Crash Course Economics.
感谢您收看经济速成班。
It was made with the help of all of these nice people.
它是由一群好心人制作的。
Now, if you want to support Crash Course as open market operations, head on over to Patreon.
现在，如果你想支持速成课程成为公开市场操作，就去Patreon吧。
It's a voluntary subscription platform
它是自愿订阅平台，
that allows you to pay whatever you want monthly to help Crash Course be free for everyone... forever.
这样你就可以按月支付任何你想要的东西。
Thanks for watching! DFTBA.
感谢您的收看。做个了不起的人！
