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Bankruptcy is One After Another
破产接踵而至
It is not quite the Armageddon that was being predicted in the weeks after Lehman Brothers became America's biggest corporate bankruptcy last September. But this recession is still on course to be second only to the Depression in terms of companies going bust. Measured by the firm's assets at the time of filing for protection from their creditors, the past year has seen five of the eight biggest bankruptcy filings in the history of American business-with Washington Mutual, Thornburg Mortgage, General Motors (GM) and Chrysler joining Lehman on the list.
2008年9月，美国最大的公司雷曼兄弟破产以后几周时间里，人们觉得仿佛世界末日即将来临，但现在看来貌似并没有那么严重。不过从破产公司数量来看，这次经济衰退的严重程度仅次于30年代的大萧条。以公荀申请对债权人的破产保护时的资产计算，过去一年中美国经济史上最大的8家公司有5家申请破产。除雷曼兄弟外，华盛顿互惠银行、桑伯格抵押公司、通用汽车和克莱斯莱也在名单之列。
A good indicator of the awfulness of the downturn is the market for junk bonds, which surely deserve the name again after nearly two decades of attempts to rebrand them as safer-sounding "high-yield debt". At the end of May 9.2% of high-yield debt issues (globally, but dominated by American paper) had defaulted during the previous 12 months, compared with less than 1% in the year to December 2007. The failure rate is on course to hit 13.8% in the fourth quarter of this year, according to Moody's, a credit-rating agency, after which it should start to decline. That would be slightly higher than in the two previous recessions, when the percentage of defaults peaked at 10.9% (in January 2002) and 12.8% (in June 1991)，but below the all-time high of around 16.3% in 1933.
测量经济衰退程度的一个很好的指标便是垃圾债券市场，其在经过了近20年的时间将自己包装成“高收益债券”的努力之后，垃圾债券的确是名副其实。（2008年)5月底9.2%的高收益债券（全球发行，美元面值）在过去的12个月里违约，相比之下2007年全年的违约率还不到1%。信用评级机构穆迪预测按这种情况发展下去，今年第四季度违约率将达到13.8%，之后将逐渐降低。这一比率略高于前两次衰退，分别是2002年1月违约率最高为10.9%和1991年6月最高为12.8%，但是低于1933年常年高违约率约16.3%的水平。
Although they have wobbled a bit lately, junk-bond prices have recovered sharply in the past few months. This is particularly true of distressed issues (the ones trading at yields at least ten percentage points higher than those of Treasury bonds). In the fourth quarter of last year 87.5% of high-yield issues were distressed, which on past form implied an eventual default rate of more than 20% in the fourth quarter of this year, says Martin Fridson, of Fridson Investment Advisors. Now about 40% of issues are distressed, implying default rate of 10% this time next year. According to JPMorgan, there were 15 defaults a month in the first four months of 2009, but the rate fell by half in May and June.
虽然违约率时有波动，但是在过去几个月中垃圾债券的价格急速飙升。特别是受压债券(收益比国债至少高出10%)。弗里德森投资咨询的马丁·弗里德森说，去年第四季度有87.5%的高收益债券遭到低价抛售，按照以往的规律这意味着今年第四季度违约率将超过20%。现在约有40%的债 券遭到低价抛售，预示明年这个时候的违约率为10%。根据摩根大通的数据显示，2009年第一季度一个月的违约案就有15件，但是五、六月份的违约率下降了一半。
Not surprisingly, many prominent recent failures have been firms reliant on the American consumer, such as Eddie Bauer, a clothing retailer, and Six Flags, a theme-park operator. On July 1st Crabtree & Evelyn, a maker of soap and fragrances, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. There is much speculation about possible bankruptcy for Har-rah's Entertainment, a huge casino operator. Lear, a supplier of car parts, was expected to file.
不出所料地，很多最近申请破产的都是严重依赖美国消费者的著名公司，如服装零售商埃迪·鲍尔和主题公园六旗游乐园。（2009年）7月1号，肥皂和芳香剂制造商瑰柏翠申请破产保护。大型赌场哈拉斯娱乐公司也很有可能申请破产，汽车零件供应商里尔美国汽车零件的情况类似。
The leading role of the federal government in the bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler has prompted fierce debate about the future of the Chapter 11 bankruptcy process. The government's proposals gave much less to some classes of creditors-including those who thought their debt was secured-than the usually strict rules of Chapter 11 dictate. This has prompted fury, lawsuits and talk of a slippery slope. Others argue that GM and Chrysler are exceptionally politicized.
通用和克莱斯莱破产案中联邦政府的主导地位引发了人们对第11章破产程序的未来的激烈讨论。根据政府措施某些等级债权者得到的还不如依据通常的破产法来得多，他们中有人本来认为自己的债权是安全的。这些引起民众的愤怒，诉讼以及对“滑坡”的讨论。还有人表示通用和克莱斯莱被特殊政治化。
Some courts are also giving bosses of bankrupt firms shorter shrift. On June 29th a bankruptcy judge ordered the executives of Gainey, a bankrupt trucking firm, to fly coach, "not first class, not business class. You'll travel like most of the rest of us do." At 21st for LyondellBasell, a petrochemicals giant, a judge will rule on a proposed $32m remuneration package for its putative new boss, James Gallogly.
法院对破产企业的老板们毫不留情。6月29日，一位破产案法官命令一家破产的卡车公司盖尼的首席执行官以后出行都乘坐经济舱，“不是头等舱也不是商务舱，你要跟我们大多数人一样”。 7月21日在对石化巨头莱昂德尔巴塞尔工业公司的破产听证会上，法官将对给予其继任老板詹姆斯·盖洛格里3200万美元报酬的申请作出判决。
What is clear is that law firms are doing very nicely out of corporate failure, as usual. The bill submitted by Jones Day for the first month of the Chrysler bankruptcy was for more than $12m.
显而易见跟平常一样，公司破产使得法律公司如鱼得水。克莱斯莱破产一个月里众达律师事务所提交的账单就超过了1200万美元。
