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经济速成班 第7课:财政政策与经济刺激

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Today, we peer into a world where shadowy government stooges

现在,我们窥视到的世界是:影子政府傀儡
manipulate the government's fiscal policy deep in their evil lairs.
在他们邪恶的巢穴里操控政府财政政策。
They pick economic winners, and losers, and control the business cycle,
他们选择经济赢家和输家,并控制经济周期、
creating recessions and controlling inflation to serve their nefarious purposes.
创造经济衰退、控制通货膨胀,以满足其邪恶目的。
Nah, fiscal policy is a completely legitimate tool used by non-shadowy government officials
财政政策是非影子政府官员使用的完全合法的工具,
to correct fluctuations in the economy.
用来调整经济波动。
OK, in previous videos, we've discussed the business cycle
在之前的视频中,我们讨论了经济周期,
and how the economy goes up and down and up and down and up and down over time.
以及经济如何随时间上下波动。
This line represents the economy's potential GDP,
这条线代表了经济的潜在GDP
the maximum sustainable amount that the economy will produce in the long run.
从长远来看,经济将产生最大可持续量。
But the business cycle shows that the economy isn't always at its potential
但经济周期表明,经济并不总能发挥其潜力,
and when actual output is below potential, that's what economists call a recessionary gap
实际产出低于潜力值,就是经济学家所说的衰退缺口。
Workers are unemployed and factories are sitting unused.
表现为工人失业,工厂闲置。
Sometimes, actual output can briefly rise above potential.
有时,实际产出可以暂时超越潜力值,
Economists call this an inflationary gap.
经济学家把它称为通货膨胀缺口。
Unemployment is super low and factories are working overtime, but it's not sustainable.
表现为失业率非常低,工厂加班加点,但这是不可持续的。
Eventually producers will bid up the price of scarce resources,
最终生产者会抬高稀缺资源的价格,
and higher costs will lead to more inflation rather than more output.
更高成本将导致更多的通货膨胀,而不是更多产出。
Obviously real-life fluctuations aren't as predictable as the business cycle might suggest,
显然,现实生活中的经济波动并不像经济周期暗示的那样可预测,
but every modern industrialized economy has seen times of boom and bust.
但每个现代工业化经济体都经历过繁荣和萧条时期。
You know, you get your Empire Strikes Back and you get your Phantom Menace.
你知道的,你经历过《帝国反击战》,也经历过《幽灵的威胁》。
So let's look at the real GDP growth rate in the United States since 1920.
所以,我们来看看20世纪20年代以来美国的实际GDP增长率。
See, up and down over time, and in the mid-1980's, things flattened out,
看,经济随时间上下起伏,在20世纪80年代中期,趋势变平了,
and we had a thing called the Great Moderation.
我们称之为“大缓和”。
It seemed like the days of deep recessions and high inflation were over.
看起来,经济严重衰退和高通胀的日子已经一去不复返了。
Then came the Great Recession as a result of the 2008 financial crisis.
接着是2008年金融危机导致的大萧条。
Back to the same old window: ups and downs of the business cycle.
又回到旧时期的样子:经济周期起伏不定。
Both recessionary and inflationary gaps caused serious problems.
衰退和通货膨胀缺口导致了严重问题。
High unemployment when the economy is bad;
经济不景气时出现高失业率;
that's bad, like really bad, and not just for the economy, for people.
这很糟糕,不仅对经济不好,对人也有害。
High unemployment rates have been linked to higher suicide rates, more domestic violence, and social upheaval.
高失业率与更高的自杀率、更多的家庭暴力和社会动乱有关。
High inflation can be just as bad.
高通胀也可能同样糟糕。
Rising costs wiped out savings and have been the root of protests and riots throughout the world.
上涨的成本摧毁了储蓄,并成为世界各地抗议和骚乱的根源。
Well, this seems like a fun episode, Stan, what's with all the doom and gloom?
这似乎是有趣的一期,斯坦,所有的厄运和黑暗是怎么回事?
Isn't there some way to smooth out these fluctuations?
难道没有办法消除这些波动吗?
I'm going to answer my own question. There might be.
我要自问自答了,可能有方法。
Many economists argue that policymakers should intervene in the macro-economy
许多经济学家认为,政策制定者应该干预宏观经济
in order to promote full employment and to reduce inflation.
以促进充分就业和减少通货膨胀。
Today we're going to look at one of the ways to do this: Fiscal Policy.
今天,我们来看一种方法:财政政策。
The idea of Fiscal Policy is really simple.
财政政策的想法非常简单。
When the economy is going too slow or too fast,
当经济发展太慢或太快时,
then the government can step on the gas or the brake, by changing government spending or taxes.
政府可以通过改变政府支出或税收来踩油门或刹车。
In the United States, that's the job of Congress and the President.
在美国,这是国会和总统的职责。
When the economy falls into a deep recessionary gap,
当经济陷入严重衰退时,
the government can increase government spending, cut taxes, or do part of both.
政府可以增加政府开支、减税,或者两者都做。
That idea is called expansionary fiscal policy.
这种想法被称为扩张性财政政策。
The idea is that government spending creates jobs and increases income for construction workers, teachers, and other laborers.
其理念是,政府支出创造就业机会,增加建筑工人、教师和其他劳动者的收入。
In turn, these workers spend more of their additional income,
反过来,这些工人花更多的额外收入,
increasing consumer spending, and boosting the economy.
增加消费者支出,提振经济。
Cutting taxes follows a similar logic.
减税遵循类似的逻辑。
A tax cut will increase disposable income for consumers,
减税将增加消费者的可支配收入,
that will increase consumer spending, and boost the entire economy.
这将增加消费者支出,并刺激整体经济。
This is exactly what the US did in 2009 during the depths of the Great Recession.
这正是美国在2009年大衰退期间所做的。
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was a stimulus bill that added more than 800 billion dollars to the economy.
《美国复苏与再投资法案》是一项刺激法案,为经济投入了8000多亿美元。
That stimulus was split 60/40 between new government spending and tax cuts.
新的政府支出和减税之间的比例是60/40。
And the expansionary fiscal policy funded new roads and bridges and upgrades to the electric grid.
扩张性财政政策为新的道路和桥梁,以及电网的升级提供了资金。
And those projects created jobs.
这些项目创造了就业机会。
But in a inflationary gap, the government can cut spending and raise taxes or do some combination of the two.
但在通货膨胀缺口的情况下,政府可以削减开支、提高税收,或者将两者结合起来。
That's called contractionary fiscal policy, and that's not half as fun.
这被称为紧缩性财政政策,这还不够有趣。
The idea is that higher taxes will leave consumers less money to spend,
它的理念是,高税收会让消费者减少消费,
and lower government spending will mean fewer public jobs.
政府开支减少将意味着公共就业的减少。
All that should reduce consumer spending, cooling off the economy and reducing inflation.
所有这些政策将减少消费者支出,冷却经济并降低通货膨胀。
We don't see contractionary fiscal policy very often in practice,
我们在实践中并不能经常看到紧缩性财政政策,
because politicians rarely want to hit their voters with a slower economy.
因为政客们很少用放缓的经济来打击他们的选民。
It's a hard sell and it could cost policymakers their jobs.
这是一场艰难的买卖,可能会让政策制定者丢掉饭碗。
US President George H. W. Bush famously stated, "Read my lips, no new taxes." while campaigning in 1988.
美国总统乔治·H. W.布什(George H. W. Bush)在1988年竞选时曾说过一句名言:“注意听我说,不会征新税。”
A few years later, he agreed to raise taxes to reduce the debt and lost the election in 1992.
几年后,他同意提高税收以减少债务,并在1992年的大选中失利。
So the big question here is: does fiscal policy actually work?
所以大问题来了:财政政策真的有效吗?
Does stimulating the economy with spending and tax cuts actually, you know, make the economy grow?
通过政府支出和减税来刺激经济,真的会让经济增长吗?
That is the most heated debate in modern economics, and it's been raging for decades.
这是现代经济学中争论得最激烈的问题,几十年来它一直在流行。
It's been known to drive mild-mannered economists to use their loud voices on cable news shows.
众所周知,在有线电视新闻节目中,它会刺激举止温和的经济学家们大声辩论。
Let's learn about it in Thought Bubble.
我们在“Thought Bubble”中了解它。
Classical theories assumed that the economy will fix itself in the long run,
古典理论认为,从长远来看,经济会自我修复,
and that government will, at best, lead to unintended consequences and,
政府最好只会导致意想不到的后果,
at worst, cause massive inflation and debt.
最差会造成大规模的通货膨胀和债务。
These theories dominated policy decisions during the early years of the Great Depression, which saw little stimulus.
这些理论主导了大萧条初期的政策决策,当时的经济刺激措施很少。
Economists argued that unemployed workers would eventually accept lower wages since some pay is better than no pay,
经济学家认为,失业工人最终会接受较低的工资,因为有总比没有好,
and resource prices would eventually fall since fewer people were using resources.
资源价格最终会下降,因为使用资源的人越来越少。
Lower costs would lead to more production, more jobs, and poof!
更低的成本会导致更多的生产、更多的工作。哇!
The economy is back on track!
经济重回正轨。
At the time, many policymakers thought about a sick economy
当时,许多政策制定者对病态经济的看法
the way doctors a thousand years ago thought about a sick patient.
与一千多年前医生对病人的看法类似。
The thinking was the problems resulted from accumulated imbalances,
其观点是问题由积累的不平衡造成,
which can be cured by aggressive purging.
可以通过积极的净化来治愈。
In the case of doctors, that meant bleeding their patients.
就医生而言,这意味着为病人放血。
In the case of a recession, that meant standing back
在经济衰退的情况下,这意味着停滞不前,
and letting the economy bleed jobs and output until balance was restored.
让经济榨取就业和产出,直到恢复平衡。
Then entered British economist John Maynard Keynes,
然后英国经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯登场了,
one of the most influential and controversial economist of the 20th century.
他是20世纪最有影响力和最有争议的经济学家之一。
Keynes basically invented modern economics, and developed theories and models about spending and production.
凯恩斯基本上创造了现代经济学,并提出了关于消费和生产的理论和模型。
He is the one that suggested using expansionary fiscal policy to speed up the economy.
他建议使用扩张性财政政策来加速经济发展。
Keynes argued that government spending can make up for a decrease in consumer spending,
凯恩斯认为,政府支出可以弥补消费者支出的减少,
so even if the economy does self-correct in the long run, there's no reason to wait it out.
因此,即使从长远来看经济会自我调整,也没有理由等下去。
His justification? "In the long run, we are all dead."
他的理由吗?“从长远来看,我们都死了。”
Well Keynes died in 1946, but his theories live on, and so does the debate.
凯恩斯在1946年去世,但他的理论依然存在,辩论也如此。
Thanks, Thought Bubble.
谢谢“Thought Bubble”。
So at first glance Keynesian policy seems like the perfect solution
乍一看,凯恩斯政策似乎是完美的解决方案
to fixing a sluggish economy if consumer spending falls,
在消费者支出下降时能修复萧条的经济,
the government can spend its debt, what's the harm in that?
政府也可以花掉债务,那么它有什么害处吗?
Well, the government has to pay for a that spending, they can't just raise taxes to cover,
政府必须为这些支出买单,他们不能只增税,
because that would decrease consumer spending and defeat the purpose.
因为那样会减少消费者支出,违背本意。
So to stimulate the economy, the government needs to deficit spend.
因此,为了刺激经济,政府需要超前消费。
They need to spend more money than they collect in tax revenue.
他们花的钱比税收收入要多。
Now to achieve this, the government needs to borrow money, which result in debt.
为了实现这一目标,政府需要举债,从而导致债务。

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Now, we're going to make a video on the national debt and different schools of economic thought.

我们要做一个关于国家债务和不同经济思想流派的视频。
But for now, it's fair enough to say that the people who don't like Keynesian policy don't like it because it causes debt.
但是现在,很公平地说,不喜欢凯恩斯主义政策的人不喜欢它,因为它会导致债务。
The more technical argument against deficit spending is it leads to something called crowding out.
更多反对赤字支出的技术论证会导致所谓的“挤出效应”。
If the government borrows a lot of money, that increases interest rates,
如果政府借了很多钱,就会提高利率,
making it harder to borrow money and buy things like factories and tools.
让借钱和购买诸如工厂、工具之类的东西变得更加困难。
This weakens the economy while increasing government debt.
这将削弱经济,同时增加政府债务。
But Keynesian economists maintain that crowding out is only a problem if the economy is operating at full capacity,
但凯恩斯主义的经济学家认为,挤出效应只是经济满负荷运转时的问题,
where all workers are employed and we're producing as much as we can.
经济满负荷运转是指所有的工人都被雇佣,我们会尽可能地生产。
In that case, since total output can't really rise more, government spending will result in less private spending.
在这种情况下,由于总产出不能真正增加,政府支出将导致私人支出减少。
However, they argue, the situation is a lot different
然而,他们认为,
when the economy is below capacity with lots of unemployed workers and vacant factories.
当经济低于产能,有大量失业工人和闲置工厂的时候,情况大不相同。
Now, in that case, more government spending can raise overall output by putting idle resources back to work.
在此情况下,通过将闲置资源重新投入工作,更多政府支出可以提高整体产出。
In fact, Keynesians would argue that government stimulus when the economy is below capacity
事实上,凯恩斯主义者认为,当经济低于产能时,政府的刺激措施
could actually raise private spending.
实际可以增加私人支出。
All those newly hired workers will start spending money.
所有新雇用的工人都将开始花钱。
So how can we figure out who's right?
那么我们怎么确定谁是对的呢?
We can start by comparing the actual performance of economies that received stimulus to those that didn't.
我们可以开始比较那些接受刺激与没接受刺激的经济体的实际表现。
As we mentioned, in 2009, the US government launched a huge stimulus program in response to the financial crisis.
正如我们提到的,2009年,美国政府针对金融危机推出了大规模刺激计划。
Despite that, employment and GDP both fell.
尽管如此,就业和GDP仍双双下降。
That sounds like a failure, but the majority of economists think
这听起来很失败,但大多数经济学家认为
the situation would have been far, far worse without that stimulus,
如果没有这些刺激,情况会更糟糕,
and while the US was implementing stimulus, most European countries were doing the opposite.
在美国实施刺激计划的同时,大多数欧洲国家采取了相反的做法。
They were pursuing a policy called austerity: raising taxes and cutting government spending to reduce debt.
他们正在推行一项名为“紧缩”的政策:提高税收与削减政府开支以减少债务。
Since 2011, when the US and European policies really started to diverge,
自2011年以来,美国和欧洲的政策开始出现分歧,
the US economy has grown at an average rate of 2.5% while the Euro-zone GDP actually shrank by 1%.
美国经济以2.5%的平均速度增长,而欧元区的GDP却下降了1%。
US unemployment fell to 5.5%, while Euro-zone unemployment rose to 12%.
美国失业率降至5.5%,欧元区失业率上升至12%。
Another thing to keep in mind is the stimulus is complicated, and hard to do well.
另一件要记住的事是,刺激计划很复杂,而且很难做好。
One reason is because of this thing called the Multiplier Effect.
一个原因是乘数效应。
The idea here is that the government spends 100 dollars
它的想法是政府花100美元,
and the construction worker who got the money will save 50 dollars
得到这笔钱的建筑工人将储蓄50美元,
and then spend 50 dollars on a concert or something.
然后花50美元在一场音乐会或其他事上。
The musician who got that money will save 25 dollars and spend the other 25 dollars and so on.
得到这笔钱的音乐家将储蓄25美元,然后花掉另外25美元等等。
So because of this ripple effect, the initial increase in government of 100 dollars
因为这个连锁反应,政府最初增加的100美元
might turn out to be 175 dollars worth of actual spending in the economy.
可能是175美元的实际经济支出。
Economists would call this a multiplier of 1.75,
经济学家称它为1.75乘数,
but the question is, what's the real multiplier of the United States economy?
但问题是,美国经济的真正乘数是多少?
Economists have come up with a wide range of estimates for that multiplier.
经济学家们对此提出了各种各样的估计。
It turns out it depends on different situations.
事实证明,这取决于不同的情况。
When the economy is already booming, the multiplier seems to be close to one.
当经济繁荣时,乘数效应似乎接近于1。
If everyone's already working, and the government wants to build a road,
如果每个人都在工作,政府想要建一条路,
then they're going to have to hire workers away from the private sector.
就不得不从私营部门雇佣工人。
Sure, public sector output increases, but private sector output falls, and GDP is unchanged. It's a wash.
当然,公共部门产出增加,但私营部门产出下降,GDP保持不变。这是一个流动。
But when the economy is in recession with lots of unemployed workers in lots of unused capital, the multipliers around 2.
但当经济陷入衰退,大量失业工人在大量闲置资本中时,乘数大约为2。
Due that ripple effect, an increase of 100 dollars or government spending will lead to about 200 dollars of total spending,
由于连锁反应,100美元或政府支出的增加将导致大约200美元的总支出,
which puts some people back to work.
这将导致一些人重返工作岗位。
Moreover, different policies have different multipliers,
此外,不同的政策有不同的乘数,
spending on welfare and unemployment is the biggest bang for our buck
在福利和失业方面的支出对我们的利益打击最大,
since people with low incomes are likely to spend their additional income.
因为收入较低的人很可能会花掉他们额外的收入。
Spending on infrastructure, and aid to state and local governments, also seems to have a fairly high multiplier, about 1.5.
在基础设施方面的支出,以及对州政府和地方政府的援助,似乎也有相当高的乘数,约为1.5。
But general cuts to payroll and income taxes seem to have a multiplier of about 1.
但对工资和所得税的全面削减,其乘数大约是1.
If the government cuts 100 dollars in taxes, the economy's going to grow by about 100 dollars.
如果政府削减100美元的税收,经济就会增长100美元。
More targeted tax cuts and tax credits have lower multipliers
更有针对性的减税和税收抵免具有更低的乘数效应,
since they tend to benefit those with higher incomes,
因为它们有利于那些收入较高的人,
who often save rather than spend additional income.
他们经常存钱而不是花额外的钱。
But we want is something that will affect the economy rapidly, but also have a high multiplier.
但是我们希望某些东西会快速影响经济,但也有一个高乘数。
So tax cuts put money in people's hands quickly, but that money might get saved rather than spent.
因此,减税可以迅速将钱交到人们手中,但这些钱可能会被省下来,而不是花掉。
On the other hand, infrastructure projects like making roads and bridges have strong multipliers,
另一方面,像道路桥梁这样的基础设施项目有很强的乘数效应,
but might take months or even years to complete.
但它们可能需要数月甚至数年才能完成。
So fiscal stimulus may be an important tool, at least when it comes to a recession,
因此,财政刺激可能是一个重要工具,至少在经济衰退时是,
but it doesn't mean that it's easy to do or that all stimulus is created equal.
但这并不意味着它很容易做到或者所有刺激都平等。
So fiscal policy has its advantages and drawbacks, but in the end,
所以财政政策有其优点和缺点,但最后,
maybe it's all about that thing you didn't have in 6th grade: confidence.
它也许就是你六年级时没有的东西:自信。
When people are miserable and unemployed, they want to feel like help is on the way.
当人们痛苦和失业时,他们想要帮助的感觉。
Doing nothing doesn't create the kind of confidence that we'll get consumers and businesses spending again,
什么都不做创造不了让消费者和企业再次消费的信心,
and it doesn't get politicians re-elected.
也不能让政客再次当选。
So it looks like Keynesian policies are here to stay unless...
所以看起来凯恩斯主义政策是要留下来的,除非……
CrashCourse economics is made with the help of all of these nice people.
经济速成班是由一群好心人制作的。
You could help make CrashCourse free for everyone forever through your support on Patreon.
如果你想让速成班继续免费为大家服务,请到Patreon去订购。
Patreon is a voluntary subscription service that allows you to support the content you love and earn great rewards.
它是自愿订阅平台,这样你就可以支付你喜欢的内容并得到大奖。
Check it out at patreon.com/crashcourse.
点击patreon.com/crashcourse
Thanks for watching and DFTBA.
感谢您的收看。做个了不起的人。
Did I look evil?
我看起来邪恶吗?

重点单词   查看全部解释    
collect [kə'lekt]

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v. 收集,聚集
v. 推论

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technical ['teknikəl]

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adj. 技术的,工艺的

 
scarce [skɛəs]

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adj. 缺乏的,不足的,稀少的,罕见的
ad

 
concert ['kɔnsət]

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n. 音乐会,一致,和谐
vt. 制定计划,通

 
buck [bʌk]

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n. (美元)块钱 n. 钱,鹿皮,(鹿皮等)制物,小伙

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bust [bʌst]

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n. 半身像,胸部,萧条,破产 v. 打碎

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social ['səuʃəl]

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adj. 社会的,社交的
n. 社交聚会

 
ripple ['ripl]

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n. 涟波,涟漪,波纹,粗钢梳 vt. 使 ... 起涟

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logic ['lɔdʒik]

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n. 逻辑,逻辑学,条理性,推理

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capacity [kə'pæsiti]

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n. 能力,容量,容积; 资格,职位
adj.

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