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The probability of a recession hitting the US economy is rising after a flurry of signals have flashed in recent weeks and months.
在近期（最近几周和数月内）一系列信号亮起后，美国经济陷入衰退的可能性正在上升。
That's according to economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, who compiled a list of recessionary indicators in a note on Friday.
美国罗森伯格研究公司总裁大卫·罗森伯格在8月30日发布的一份报告中汇编了一份衰退指标清单。
"What is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer — why not dodge it completely and just look at all of them?" Rosenberg asked.
他提出：“最准确的衰退指标是什么？这是一个很难回答的问题——为什么不避开这个问题，看看所有这些指标呢？”
According to Rosenberg, some worrying signals have historically only flashed on the precipice of an economic downturn.
罗森伯格表示，在历史上，一些令人担忧的信号只有在经济即将陷入衰退时才会出现。
"The 'indicator of indicators' indicates recession," Rosenberg said.
罗森伯格称：“‘指标的指标’预示着经济衰退。”
Of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg, nine have been triggered.
罗森伯格编制的20个衰退指标中，有9个已经触发。
Some of the recession signals that have flashed include the Sahm Rule, the Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the inverted yield curve, among others.
被触发的衰退指标包括萨姆规则、先行指数和倒挂的收益率曲线等。
"Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to 1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring," Rosenberg said.
罗森伯格说：“目前，我们追踪的经济衰退指标中有45%已经触发。自1999年以来，从来没有出现这种情况而不发生衰退的。”
The list of signals flashing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023 and the first half of 2024.
自2022年以来，预示美国经济陷入衰退的信号数量一直都在稳步上升，当时只有10%被触发。2023年和2024年上半年，这一比例上升到了25%左右。
But since then, the recession warnings have been growing.
而自那以后，关于美国经济衰退的警告越来越多。
"Sometimes more is more, and this is a case in point. Looking at recession thresholds across different sectors of the economy makes it clear that something has been changing since mid-2024 — the long-anticipated slowdown may finally be arriving," Rosenberg said.
罗森伯格说：“有时更多就是更多，这就是一个很好的例证。观察不同经济部门的衰退阈值可以清楚地看出，自2024年中期以来，一些事情一直在发生变化——经济衰退可能真的要来了。”
编辑：董静
审校：陈丹妮 万月英
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