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As the calendar flips to December it’s not too early to think about the inevitability of tanking. Who should do it, who should wait, and who shouldn’t ever consider it. Flanns and Zillz discuss.
日历一页一页地翻到了12月，一些球队是时候考虑垫底的不可避免性了。那么，哪些球队应该开始着手垫底，哪些球队还需要观望，而哪些球队应该放弃这种打算呢。Flanns 和Zillz将会就这一问题展开讨论。
The end of November is here. As I wrote Monday, recent history suggests nine teams have pretty much already been knocked out of playoff contention. Yet, none of them are straight-up tanking.
眼看11月就要过去了，正如我周一写的那样，往年经验表明，9支球队很有可能已经被踢出季后赛地竞争行列了。然而，他们中没有一支球队表明要摆烂。
The Sixers are still slowly pivoting from a full-on institutional tank job to trying to be competitive, and the Suns are not expecting to be anything like good. So those two teams are quasi-tanking. They are, at least, not mad about losing.
76人队在举步维艰地从一支历史悠久的全职摆烂大队向一支有竞争力地队伍转变；太阳队表现依旧不尽如人意。这两支显然是半垫底的球队了。但是他们至少没有对输球抓狂。
Everyone else is trying to win. The Mavericks, all of 3-13, proudly announced that they won't tank. Yet, this is expected to be one of the best NBA drafts in years, with Markelle Fultz, Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Harry Giles, OG Anunoby, Ivan Rabb ... the list goes on!
而其他的队伍还有在尝试赢球的。小牛队，在3-13的战绩面前，骄傲地说他们不会垫底。但是，明年被认为是近年来最好的NBA选秀，有Markelle Fultz, Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Harry Gile, OG Anumoby, Ivan Rabb……等等优质球员。
By March, there's a real chance two or three of these prospects stick out as franchise players.
到了明年3月，这些明日之星中很有可能会有1-2个人脱颖而出，可以成为球队基石。
But none of these doomed NBA squads seem all that interested in setting themselves up for it. Should they be? Do we need more tanking this year, for these teams' own sake?
但是这些烂队中没有一支队伍有摆烂的打算。他们这样打算合适吗？为球队着想，他们应该摆烂吗？
I always judge the tank on actions and not by words. So, when teams say they're not in the tank and then run out a bunch of undrafted free agents while injuries to star players linger, that's when you know it's on.
我判断摆烂不是看言论而是看球队动作的。所以，即使球队说他们没有摆烂，但是签了一大批落选的自由球员，同时报告明星球员伤病缠身，这时候你就知道，他们是在摆烂了。
I empathize with the Mavs' position. It's tough to tell your fans that all hope is lost in November, and it's especially tough when you've got a Hall of Famer still on your roster.
这里我得提一下小牛队的处境。你很难在11月就告诉你球队的球迷们球队希望尽失，而你的名人堂球员仍旧在球员名单上时这一动作难度就更大了。
It's real easy for us to sit up here and tell teams that they need to go out there and lose a bunch of games. We're not the ones on the hook for ticket sales and advertisers.
我们坐在这里指点江山，告诉那些球队“你们没指望了，赶紧输球摆烂吧！”这是很容易的，但是我们并不是那些在为球队门票和广告殚精竭虑的家伙们。
But yeah, of course they should tank. And so should the Kings. Again. And the Heat. And the Magic. These are mediocre teams, at best, without high upsides even in the most optimistic projections.
但是，小牛队的确应该摆烂。同样的还有国王队，还有热火队，还有魔术队。这些都是中游的球队，即使在最乐观的预测中都没有很高的排名。
There's a difference, though, in a team like Miami that's playing its young guys and trying to build a core while taking on losses, and, say, the Magic, who are trying to jump-start a stalled process.
但是他们摆烂的原因还是各不相同的。比如热火队，他们试图通过输球来锻炼队中的年轻人并且确立一个核心；比如魔术队，他们试图摆脱停滞不前的过程。
I'm going to disagree on one team you mentioned: the Kings. The West is a bit shallow again, and Sacramento is in the mix for a playoff spot. It's not likely or anything, but so long as they are in the mix, they have to pull out almost all the stops to grab it.
其中有一支队伍我不大赞同：国王队。今年西部各队实力都有所下降，并且萨克拉门托还在季后赛席位的竞争之列，倒不是说摆烂不可能，但是只要他们还在这一队列里，他们就该全速前进，进入季后赛。
If you don't, you need to trade Boogie Cousins and all those veterans you signed over the past two offseasons.
否则，就应该交易考辛斯还有在过去的两个赛季里签下的其他的老将了。
The Magic have bounced between average and bad, and they're currently on a downswing. Now Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are coming off the bench and Mario Hezonja is buried.
魔术队倒是可上可下，并且他们现在正在走下坡路。现在，阿龙-戈登和尼古拉-武切维奇被从板凳席上拉了出来并且马里奥-海佐尼亚被雪藏了。
I get that Frank Vogel is experimenting to find a winning rotation, but this roster is so unbalanced and the best prospects aren't being put in great positions.
我猜弗兰克-沃格尔正在试验阵容以找到能赢球的轮换阵容。但是这个阵容实在是太不均衡了，最有希望的球员没有被安置在最好的位置上。
I mean, is it worth to be a No. 8 seed with Serge Ibaka and Jeff Green leading the way? Maybe it is. This all just seems awfully backwards.
我是说，让一个9号秀同伊巴卡和杰夫格林这样带队真的没问题吗？可能吧。只是从之前糟糕的表现上来看……
The thing about the Mavericks is that this is not at all how Dirk should go out. That team has been so solid his entire career. To have a busted season now is painful. Maybe he ought to have joined Kobe, KG, and Big Fundamental last summer.
而关于小牛这支球队，问题并不全是司机该怎么让位。在老司机的整个职业生涯中，这一直是一直有实力的球队。德克今年这样支离破碎的赛季实在令人痛苦。或许下个夏天他就会加入科比、KG和大基本功先生的队伍中去。
Fair enough. Let's put the Kings in the “maybe” file. I'll drop the Nuggets in there, as well, as they are in basically the same place as a franchise, give or take some dysfunctional elements. The Wizards have to go in there, too, much as I am down on them at the moment.
你说的有道理。那我们就把国王队归到“有可能”的那一档里吧。同样我会把掘金队也归到这一档，鉴于他们球队战绩相近，且都或放走或签约了某些功能失调的球员。奇才队也会被我归到这一档，到目前为止我还是不看好他们。
I'm not worried about Philly, Phoenix, or Minnesota. They're young, they're rebuilding. If they make strides, great. If not, take another high pick. The Nets are the Nets and we should talk about them in a minute.
我倒是并不担心费城、凤凰城和明尼苏达的球队。他们队伍都很年轻，都在重建的路上。如果他们能够取得进步，那很好，就算没有，他们也能获得高顺位的选秀权。而篮网队则是另一个故事了，我们稍后会讨论到他们。
The Magic are the single-most mystifying team in this entire exercise. They make little sense on paper or on the court.
魔术队是所有队伍中最迷的哪一个。不论从纸面上看还是从球场表现来看，他们这样的队伍都毫无意义。
They need more talent. Full stop. The best avenue for attracting talent for them has always been the draft.
这支队伍需要更多的天赋，他们需要大修。对魔术而言，最能吸引天赋到来的方式一直以来都是选秀。
So, yeah, I think they should tank and they might even be able to get some good value for Ibaka in a trade even if it would be a really quick about-face. God they're weird.
所以，是的，我认为他们应该果断垫底甚至交易伊巴卡以换取更多的价值，尽管这变脸来得有点快。唉，天啊，这支队伍实在太诡异了。
As for Dirk, nobody should ever go out the way they do, but it happens all the time. In some ways, maybe it's easier if the reckoning is this painful.
至于德克，我认为没有人应该曲意逢迎，但是总有人会这么做。从某种程度来说，如果球队处境如此令人痛心，或许摆烂会来得更轻松一些。
The Wizards need to surge ASAP if they want to stay in this. We saw what happened last year when they waited too long to get it together.
奇才队如果想要留在强队之列，需要尽快给球队动手术。我们已经看到了他们一直以来期待的全员奇才是怎样的水准。
Scott Brooks gets leeway as he learns his roster, and injuries continue to play too big a role. But I just can't fathom why this team is so much worse than the playoff team from a couple years back. The other piece is that it's unlikely the Wizards can conceivably be bad enough to get a top-five pick.
斯科特-布鲁克斯教练在看到他的球员名单后就知道了他执教的退路有多大了，伤病一直以来都是球队里的大佬。但是我还是捉摸不清为什么这支球队比以前的那支季后赛球队差那么远。另一方面，奇才不可能差到以至于会得到前5的顺位吧。
I wonder if the Pelicans are in that position, too. It looks like their highest Brow-era pick will be Buddy Hield. That's not optimal.
我其实好奇鹈鹕队会不会也会到这一地步。目测布朗时代最高顺位的新秀就是巴迪-希尔德了，这可不理想。
I'm assuming they'll end up around the No. 10 pick at this point; it's hard to get an instant franchise player that low, and New Orleans doesn't have all the time in the world.
就目前来看，我觉得他们大概会在第十顺位，在这么低的顺位想要得到一个立即能够成为球队建队基石的新秀可不容易，并且留给鹈鹕队出成果的时间不多了。
But with Jrue Holiday back and Anthony Davis putting up historic numbers, they aren't going to be bad enough to get a Fultz or Jackson. Why couldn't last year's draft class be this good?
但是随着朱迪-霍勒迪的回归和安东尼-戴维斯打出历史级别的数据，他们不会差到以至于能够得到上边提到的Fultz，Jackson之流。去年的选秀怎么就没那么好呢！
There's a crucial element in team building called planning that often seems to elude those franchises that are stuck in the mud.
对于在泥潭里挣扎的球队，有一样建队过程中关键的东西一直诱惑着他们，那就是建队计划。
We should stipulate at this point that neither of us have any idea how good this draft is going to be because the college season is barely underway. It sure looks nice, what with all those freshmen stacked up together in the lottery.
我们首先得明白我们所有人都不知道这次选秀会怎么发展，毕竟大学联赛还在进行。但当所有的这些新鲜的血液都齐聚乐透区，这看起来当然美如画。
My hunch is that this draft will look pretty good by March and will be much better than last year's, which was one of the most underwhelming in recent memory. New Orleans and Washington both need some direction, and soon.
我的预感是到了3月份，今年的应考新秀们就会看起来很棒，并且会远比去年要好，去年是近几年来最不被看好的一年。新奥尔良和华盛顿都需要一个明确的方向，并且他们不久就会做出各自的选择。
I was waiting for you to bring up the Nets’ situation, so fine, I'll do it here. Jeremy Lin's been out for weeks with a hamstring injury. They're the only team tanking correctly and they're not actually tanking!
其实我一直都在等你提到篮网队的处境，既然你没说，那就我来说吧。林书豪已经因腿筋受伤缺阵几周了。他们是唯一有摆烂权利但是不摆烂的球队！
It will be interesting to see which direction they go at the trade deadline. They have a handful of solid players along with Brook Lopez.
在交易截止日到来前，看清楚他们会往哪个方向走这件事将会十分有趣。他们有很多靠得住的球员团结在布鲁克-洛佩兹身边。
They have no reason to tank thanks to the pick swap with the Celtics, but they might be able to pick up some nice consolation draft prizes from contenders looking to make a move.
感谢和凯尔特人的选秀权交换，他们没有理由摆烂。他们或许会从参选球员中选到一个最佳安慰奖以推动球队前行。
There are a couple of other picks in play this year. There's the Lakers pick to Philly (top-three protected), a Memphis one to Denver (top-five protected), and the infamous Sacramento choice to Chicago (top-10 protected) that Philly actually controls because Sam Hinkie will have revenge on us all.
今年选秀中还有很多选秀权交换的情况，有湖人给费城的前三保护的选秀权，有孟菲斯给丹佛的前五保护的选秀权，还有那个无耻的萨克拉门托给芝加哥的前十保护的选秀权（然而费城球队会控局的，他们的前总经理山姆-辛基会来复仇的）。
Ah yes, the other reason Sacramento shouldn't tank: Philadelphia has the option to swap picks with them this year. It's actually impossible for the Kings to get the No. 1 pick because of that, and it hurts their chances at a top-three pick overall.
是的，另一个萨克拉门托不该垫底的原因就是：费城今年有权和他们交换选秀权。因此，国王队完全没可能得到状元签，而且他们得到前三签位的可能性也很低。
The Bulls get the Kings' pick if it falls outside the top 10, so it's better for the Kings to be a bottom-10 team than to just miss the playoffs in terms of team-building.
而如果国王队签位掉出前10的话公牛队又会得到他们的签，所以在不妨碍球队重建的情况下，国王队不仅仅是不能进入季后赛，最好还是在倒数前十的队列中。
The Kings also still owe a future first (unprotected in 2019 at worst) to Philly for the honor of being able to sign Rajon Rondo, Kosta Koufos, and Marco Belinelli. Talk about a team with no damn plan.
国王队由于签约拉简-朗多，科斯塔-库佛斯和马可-贝利内里，实际上还欠费城一个未来首轮签（无保护，最迟2019年）。传说中的无计划重建队啊。
The Nets should really feel free to tank out if only to get assets for the players who aren't integral to culture change and won't be on the next very good Brooklyn team. That means Brook Lopez, basically. The market on him is weird, but presuming it exists, it should be explored.
网队我认为倒是可以轻松舒适地摆着烂，除非是想给那些没有融入球队文化，并且明年不会在队中地球员增加身价。对，我说的就是布鲁克-洛佩兹。他存在的交易价值很诡异，但是我们假设它存在的话，我们就该充分利用他身上的价值。
The need to rebuild supersedes the desire to not give Boston another great pick. That hole has already been dug. Time to crawl out the only way you can: slowly, through smart draft picks, trades, and signings.
网队重建的欲望已经超越了给波士顿另一个高顺位签的不情愿。大坑已经挖好，想要从坑里爬出来，你能做的只有：一步一步地，挑出合适的新秀，交易球员，以及签约。
Am I tempting fate by wondering if the Lakers end up in this conversation within a couple weeks? They'd have to go on a truly epic slide to be bad enough to keep their draft pick at this rate (top-three protected to Philly) but I think the question is whether they should continue to build slowly around this core or flip one or two of the young dudes for a star.
我冒死地想一想，湖人队在几周后会不会也加入这一阵列呢？照目前这情况，他们必须打出史诗级别烂地比赛才能留住他们的选秀权（给费城的前三保护签位），问题取决于他们是会围绕现有阵容继续缓慢地重建呢还是为了得到下一个巨星扔掉一两个年轻球员呢。
Rolling ahead with a team that's .500 through November isn't at all tanking — this is seriously a potential playoff team — but it's the same type of conversation the rebuilding squads are having. Leverage assets and playing time to win more now, or stay focused on sustainability?
这支在11月有着过半胜率的不断进步的球队完全不是垫底球队，这是一支严格意义上的可能的季后赛球队，但是就像所有重建中的球队都会讨论的那样，是靠现有球员和上场时间来换取当下的胜利呢，还是更关注于可持续性的发展呢？
For once, the Lakers are in good spot and don't have to rush into anything. Take some time. See what they have. They're not making the playoffs with that defense, but that's not really the point of this season anyway.
这一次，湖人队处境不错，而且不需要赶着去做什么事，给他们点时间，看看他们到底会怎样。用这样的防守质量他们很难进入季后赛，但是这并不是这个赛季的重点。
They're developing a core and sorting through roles. Because they're the Lakers, there remains the possibility that a solid free agent or two will look their way.
他们在培养核心球员，寻求合适的角色球员。他们可是湖人队啊，对他们而言，很有可能会有一到两个有实力的自由球员主动投怀送抱。
Maybe not a supernova player, but a good one who could get them right back on solid footing more quickly than these other teams we're discussing. Play out the season, pay off your debt, and move forward without that hanging over your head.
或许不会是一个超新星，但是会有好球员快速地把他们拉回正轨，比我们之前讨论的其他队伍都要快。打完这个赛季，还完之前的债，然后就可以潇洒甩头，大步向前了。
The other issue with tanking is Philly, Phoenix, and Brooklyn are all bad teams. It's going to be hard to outflank those outfits.
对于像费城、凤凰城和布鲁克林这样的烂队而言，另一个问题在于他们很难笼络到好的球队拼图。
Indeed. That's an understated benefit of Philly tanking so hard in recent years: they are so bad it disincentives other clubs from tanking because they'll struggle to be as bad as the Sixers. The Mavericks are in the mix, at least.
这确实是的。不过费城队近年来如此努力地垫底的一个被忽略的好处是：他们是如此地烂，以至于这会让其他竞相垫底的球队产生挫败感，因为他们很难做到和76人一样烂。在76人面前，小牛队至少只能算是中等水平的烂。
They should be. We agree on that.
这就真相了，我同意。
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